Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey: Overview

 Predicted winner: SNP 
 Acual winner: SNP 

MP at 2019: Drew Hendry  (SNP)
County/Area: Highland (Scotland)
Electorate: 78,057
Turnout: 70.2%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
SNP26,24747.9%44.9%
CON15,80728.8%30.2%
LIB5,84610.7%15.2%
LAB4,1237.5%8.6%
Green1,7093.1%0.8%
Brexit1,0782.0%0.3%
SNP Majority10,44019.0%Pred Maj 14.7%
Chance of
winning
SNP
74%
CON
23%
LIB
2%
LAB
0%
Green
0%
Brexit
0%

Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat ScotlandAll GB
Party Winner 2019SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2017SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2015SNPSNPCON
Economic Position23° Left23° Left
National Position15° Glo15° Glo
Social Position17° Lib13° Lib
TribeProgressives
EU Leave %41%38%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health55%52%48%
UK Born93%93%88%
Good Education38%36%39%
Good Job48%49%51%
High SEC58%55%51%
Average Age49.548.748.5
ABC1 Class49%50%54%

Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey ranks #535 for "Leave", #614 for "Right", #559 for "National" and #619 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeyActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
OTH
Votes
HighlandAird and Loch Ness20122792214986601,1271,853
HighlandBadenoch and Strathspey201244856664613101,5121,082
HighlandCaol and Mallaig20126600004112,297
HighlandCulloden and Ardersier201215447947501709411,224
HighlandInverness Central2012153867257001,050962
HighlandInverness Millburn20121771,152200014575391
HighlandInverness Ness-Side2012332660795008791,035
HighlandInverness South2012321353904001,089754
HighlandInverness West20129434361000739686
HighlandNairn2012205458330001,5271,429

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeyEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HighlandAird and Loch Ness6,3901,606152419641012,146004,488
HighlandBadenoch and Strathspey10,4582,2183767241312073,688007,344
HighlandCaol and Mallaig3381201110023
HighlandCulloden and Ardersier8,9941,9833736441211923,003006,316
HighlandInverness Central10,8071,6631,1595601822893,735007,588
HighlandInverness Millburn6,6201,1916773801091732,119004,649
HighlandInverness Ness-Side9,0461,8434398841412232,822006,352
HighlandInverness South9,9822,1633111,0611191883,167007,009
HighlandInverness West6,5131,211291668961522,156004,574
HighlandNairn9,2151,9213455041161843,400006,470
 Total78,05815,8074,1245,8461,0791,71026,2470054,813

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey.

Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeyPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HighlandAird and Loch Ness6,3901,65919358811252,012004,488
HighlandBadenoch and Strathspey10,4582,3154511,03522513,469007,343
HighlandCaol and Mallaig3381300100022
HighlandCulloden and Ardersier8,9942,07044092320482,815006,316
HighlandInverness Central10,8071,7821,25294331723,509007,589
HighlandInverness Millburn6,6201,26373361118431,980004,648
HighlandInverness Ness-Side9,0461,9385131,19024552,633006,353
HighlandInverness South9,9822,2533811,35020472,958007,009
HighlandInverness West6,5131,27734288116382,020004,574
HighlandNairn9,2152,00741278020463,207006,472
 Total78,05816,5724,7188,30418242524,6130054,814

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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