Isle of Wight: Seat Details

WARNING: This is the page for the old seat. The new seats, which will be used at the next general election, are more relevant. See the new seat of Isle of Wight East, or click here to find another new seat.

Isle of Wight: Overview

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:Bob Seely  (CON)
County/Area:Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:113,021
Turnout:65.9%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON41,81556.2%30.5%
LAB18,07824.3%35.3%
Green11,33815.2%11.2%
OTH3,2114.3%1.7%
LIB00.0%7.5%
Reform00.0%13.7%
CON Majority23,73731.9%4.7%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
CON
38%
LAB
61%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
LIB
0%
Reform
1%

Isle of Wight : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Isle of Wight constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South EastAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position2° Right11° Right
National Position12° Nat3° Nat
Social Position3° Con1° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %62%52%52%
Average Age55.450.449.5
Good Education45%53%49%
Employed48%59%58%
Homeowner70%68%63%
Car owner80%84%77%
Married46%48%45%
Ethnic White97%86%83%
Christian51%50%50%
ABC1 Class50%62%56%
Gross Household Income£38,844£50,167£42,397
Deprivation56%48%52%
Average House Price£267,761£409,816£313,528

Isle of Wight ranks #118 for "Leave", #318 for "Economic Right Position", #108 for "National Position" and #260 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Isle of Wight: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Isle of Wight

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Isle of Wight.

Isle of WightActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Isle of WightBembridge3,261CONCON8415541903031570172,062
Isle of WightBinstead and Fishbourne2,943CONCON6775641362471620341,820
Isle of WightBrading and St Helens2,844CONLAB5355551502421410151,638
Isle of WightBrighstone, Calbourne and Shalfleet2,644CONCON5684371642272480101,654
Isle of WightCarisbrooke and Gunville2,796CONLAB4145871121972850291,624
Isle of WightCentral Rural2,915CONCON5784811652462440121,726
Isle of WightChale, Niton and Shorwell2,981CONCON5545011742442960131,782
Isle of WightCowes Medina3,118CONLAB4177851162252110411,795
Isle of WightCowes North2,842CONLAB4816911062041880331,703
Isle of WightCowes South and Northwood2,948CONCON6136001162302340341,827
Isle of WightCowes West and Gurnard2,937CONCON6645881492492120351,897
Isle of WightEast Cowes3,191CONLAB5756081282581960421,807
Isle of WightFairlee and Whippingham3,008CONCON5735151292412280241,710
Isle of WightFreshwater North and Yarmouth2,651CONCON5644171532362450121,627
Isle of WightFreshwater South3,169CONCON6195651622791720151,812
Isle of WightHaylands and Swanmore2,732CONLAB4595991052131490371,562
Isle of WightLake North2,891CONLAB4866301032361550371,647
Isle of WightLake South2,960CONLAB5736001062491610351,724
Isle of WightMountjoy and Shide2,784CONLAB446624912031630331,560
Isle of WightNettlestone and Seaview2,485CONCON6414221302141270291,563
Isle of WightNewchurch, Havenstreet and Ashey2,938CONCON6465091572521720131,749
Isle of WightNewport Central2,737CONLAB327628861851990371,462
Isle of WightNewport West2,940CONLAB4686251092142410341,691
Isle of WightOsborne3,165CONLAB3906601162253090371,737
Isle of WightPan and Barton2,755CONLAB322630842081630381,445
Isle of WightParkhurst and Hunnyhill2,791CONLAB424532982061960331,489
Isle of WightRyde Appley and Elmfield3,060CONLAB5356291352381890421,768
Isle of WightRyde Monktonmead3,092CONLAB3837821042281610441,702
Isle of WightRyde North West3,107CONLAB4167221122182090461,723
Isle of WightRyde South East1,755CONLAB17545456121115024945
Isle of WightRyde West2,740CONLAB3856871002071430381,560
Isle of WightSandown North2,691CONLAB443600942111330371,518
Isle of WightSandown South2,903CONLAB478612892181390401,576
Isle of WightShanklin Central2,957CONLAB5386021092272050371,718
Isle of WightShanklin South3,004CONLAB6216301022281450371,763
Isle of WightTotland and Colwell3,183CONCON6136001642871720161,852
Isle of WightVentnor and St Lawrence3,062CONLAB5046881532601590161,780
Isle of WightWootton Bridge2,883CONCON5725291662551890151,726
Isle of WightWroxall, Lowtherville and Bonchurch3,162CONLAB5136891672851630171,834
 Total113,025CONLAB20,03123,1314,8869,0167,37601,13865,578

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2023.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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