Isle of Wight: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Isle of Wight: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Bob Seely  (CON)
County/Area: Hampshire (South East)
Electorate: 113,021
Turnout: 65.9%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON41,81556.2%54.9%
LAB18,07824.3%25.1%
Green11,33815.2%15.4%
OTH3,2114.3%4.7%
CON Majority23,73731.9%Pred Maj 29.9%
Chance of
winning
CON
96%
LAB
4%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Isle of Wight : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Isle of Wight constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South EastAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position2° Right11° Right
National Position12° Nat3° Nat
Social Position3° Con1° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %62%52%52%
British Identity26%29%29%
Good Health41%49%48%
UK Born95%88%87%
Good Education35%43%39%
Good Job46%56%51%
High SEC48%57%51%
Average Age53.249.148.3
ABC1 Class48%60%54%

Isle of Wight ranks #118 for "Leave", #318 for "Right", #108 for "National" and #260 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Isle of Wight: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Isle of Wight

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Isle of Wight.

Isle of WightActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Isle of WightArreton and Newchurch3,028CONCON1,276392002360911,995
Isle of WightBinstead and Fishbourne2,759CONCON1,060374002950881,817
Isle of WightBrading, St Helens and Bembridge6,125CONCON2,4928290046002544,035
Isle of WightCarisbrooke2,669CONCON959350003890601,758
Isle of WightCentral Wight2,914CONCON1,296270002960591,921
Isle of WightChale, Niton and Whitwell2,380CONCON975239002980561,568
Isle of WightCowes Medina3,108CONCON9495740042301012,047
Isle of WightCowes North2,501CONCON870334004060381,648
Isle of WightCowes South and Northwood2,947CONCON1,106423003410711,941
Isle of WightCowes West and Gurnard3,265CONCON1,2485040027101292,152
Isle of WightEast Cowes3,189CONCON1,1705450025801262,099
Isle of WightFreshwater North2,287CONCON814276003520651,507
Isle of WightFreshwater South2,608CONCON9464460021301121,717
Isle of WightGodshill and Wroxall2,708CONCON9994530023001021,784
Isle of WightHavenstreet, Ashey and Haylands2,862CONCON979460003590871,885
Isle of WightLake North2,896CONCON1,074572002140491,909
Isle of WightLake South2,964CONCON1,0935370019501281,953
Isle of WightNettlestone and Seaview2,480CONCON1,0163330018101031,633
Isle of WightNewport Central2,991CONCON9266990024001041,969
Isle of WightNewport East3,081LABLAB810954002180472,029
Isle of WightNewport North2,596CONCON992398002790391,708
Isle of WightNewport South2,830CONCON1,067494002160881,865
Isle of WightNewport West2,601CONCON916386003340761,712
Isle of WightParkhurst2,460CONCON988399001980351,620
Isle of WightRyde East2,944CONCON8234710052201251,941
Isle of WightRyde North East2,661CONCON848476003890391,752
Isle of WightRyde North West2,908CONCON991537002950931,916
Isle of WightRyde South3,111CONCON8668570022601012,050
Isle of WightRyde West2,871CONCON8486100031301201,891
Isle of WightSandown North2,460CONCON8235100018401021,619
Isle of WightSandown South3,126CONCON1,103430004800462,059
Isle of WightShanklin Central2,953CONCON1,075475003010951,946
Isle of WightShanklin South3,001CONCON1,1504980022501041,977
Isle of WightTotland2,508CONCON1,0033600018101081,652
Isle of WightVentnor East2,411CONCON840409002810571,587
Isle of WightVentnor West2,378CONCON819321003340931,567
Isle of WightWest Wight2,807CONCON1,235280002950411,851
Isle of WightWhippingham and Osborne3,743CONCON1,2717550030001402,466
Isle of WightWootton Bridge2,888CONCON1,1584210021601081,903
 Total113,019CONCON40,87418,6510011,44403,48074,449

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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