Isle of Wight: Seat Details

Isle of Wight: Overview

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:Bob Seely  (CON)
County/Area:Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:113,021
Turnout:65.9%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON41,81556.2%49.8%
LAB18,07824.3%25.8%
Green11,33815.2%18.4%
OTH3,2114.3%5.7%
Reform00.0%0.3%
CON Majority23,73731.9%24.0%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
CON
95%
LAB
5%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
Reform
0%

Isle of Wight : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Isle of Wight constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South EastAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position2° Right11° Right
National Position12° Nat3° Nat
Social Position3° Con1° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %62%52%52%
British Identity26%29%29%
Good Health41%49%48%
UK Born95%88%87%
Good Education35%43%39%
Good Job46%56%51%
High SEC48%57%51%
Average Age53.249.148.3
ABC1 Class48%60%54%
Average House Price£267,761£413,307£309,875

Isle of Wight ranks #118 for "Leave", #318 for "Right", #108 for "National" and #260 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Isle of Wight: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Isle of Wight

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Isle of Wight.

Isle of WightActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Isle of WightBembridge3,268CONCON1,2374220730101862,153
Isle of WightBinstead and Fishbourne2,905CONCON1,0264060636701071,912
Isle of WightBrading and St Helens2,794CONCON1,0344210627401041,839
Isle of WightBrighstone, Calbourne and Shalfleet2,684CONCON1,109265063320561,768
Isle of WightCarisbrooke and Gunville2,796CONCON918388064420871,841
Isle of WightCentral Rural2,968CONCON1,1013950632801241,954
Isle of WightChale, Niton and Shorwell2,947CONCON1,134305064140821,941
Isle of WightCowes Medina3,033CONCON8335700647501141,998
Isle of WightCowes North2,851CONCON8764340646201001,878
Isle of WightCowes South and Northwood2,894CONCON990426063930891,904
Isle of WightCowes West and Gurnard2,949CONCON1,0324710630301301,942
Isle of WightEast Cowes3,138CONCON1,0555470731801392,066
Isle of WightFairlee and Whippingham2,918CONCON1,0004860632901001,921
Isle of WightFreshwater North and Yarmouth2,637CONCON979273064070721,737
Isle of WightFreshwater South3,138CONCON1,0515350732701472,067
Isle of WightHaylands and Swanmore2,726CONCON798499063960991,798
Isle of WightLake North2,894CONCON977583062710681,905
Isle of WightLake South2,949CONCON9955440625201451,942
Isle of WightMountjoy and Shide2,798CONCON9455190627101021,843
Isle of WightNettlestone and Seaview2,635CONCON9983630624701231,737
Isle of WightNewchurch, Havenstreet and Ashey2,901CONCON1,081400063230991,909
Isle of WightNewport Central2,693CONCON7965950627101061,774
Isle of WightNewport West2,893CONCON9234550641901011,904
Isle of WightOsborne3,019CONCON9106410630701241,988
Isle of WightPan and Barton2,877CONLAB643920062620641,895
Isle of WightParkhurst and Hunnyhill2,719CONCON948497062700711,792
Isle of WightRyde Appley and Elmfield3,032CONCON7864770660301251,997
Isle of WightRyde Monktonmead3,086CONCON8267270736901032,032
Isle of WightRyde North West3,064CONCON9045850640601172,018
Isle of WightRyde South East2,408CONLAB552574053580961,585
Isle of WightRyde West2,695CONCON7055890634701281,775
Isle of WightSandown North2,674CONCON8335490625701181,763
Isle of WightSandown South2,767CONCON884394064790591,822
Isle of WightShanklin Central2,887CONCON9624750635201071,902
Isle of WightShanklin South3,000CONCON1,0585080628401191,975
Isle of WightTotland and Colwell3,235CONCON1,1654800732601522,130
Isle of WightVentnor and St Lawrence3,167CONCON1,0294790747201002,087
Isle of WightWootton Bridge2,864CONCON1,0604280627201221,888
Isle of WightWroxall, Lowtherville and Bonchurch3,117CONCON9095540743601462,052
 Total113,020CONCON37,06219,179024013,72204,23174,434

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2021.


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