Jarrow: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Jarrow: Overview

 Predicted winner: LAB 
 Acual winner: LAB 

MP at 2019: Kate Osborne  (LAB)
County/Area: Newcastle area (North East)
Electorate: 65,103
Turnout: 62.6%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB18,36345.1%50.3%
CON11,24327.6%33.5%
Brexit4,12210.1%6.8%
MIN2,9917.3%0.0%
LIB2,3605.8%5.5%
Green8312.0%2.6%
OTH8262.0%1.3%
LAB Majority7,12017.5%Pred Maj 16.8%
Chance of
winning
LAB
81%
CON
19%
Brexit
0%
MIN
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Jarrow : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Jarrow constituency, the 'North East' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat North EastAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position16° Left9° Left
National Position7° Nat4° Nat
Social Position4° Con2° Con
TribeTradition
EU Leave %61%58%52%
British Identity24%26%29%
Good Health43%44%48%
UK Born98%95%88%
Good Education32%35%39%
Good Job47%46%51%
High SEC43%44%51%
Average Age49.949.048.5
ABC1 Class44%47%54%

Jarrow ranks #142 for "Leave", #572 for "Right", #217 for "National" and #229 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Jarrow: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Jarrow: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Jarrow

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Jarrow at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Jarrow. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

JarrowActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
OTH
Votes
GatesheadPelaw and Heworth20154672,2979300203133
GatesheadWardley and Leam Lane20156042,64422303800
South TynesideBede20153191,8470720123221
South TynesideBoldon Colliery20151,1112,440007000
South TynesideCleadon and East Boldon20152,0432,631003830
South TynesideFellgate and Hedworth20153292,04201,0751310
South TynesideHebburn North20153541,950002221,350
South TynesideHebburn South20154452,21508913040
South TynesideMonkton20154132,15609102640
South TynesidePrimrose20153261,92308701820

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

JarrowEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GatesheadPelaw and Heworth6,9601,0802,05229143193320884,355
GatesheadWardley and Leam Lane6,5821,0911,88526840685302824,119
South TynesideBede6,1179651,84517041571281803,827
South TynesideBoldon Colliery7,2821,3292,00826543496335904,557
South TynesideCleadon and East Boldon6,5931,5771,33536936895303784,125
South TynesideFellgate and Hedworth6,0201,0251,72319240072277793,768
South TynesideHebburn North6,6849682,11821640386307844,182
South TynesideHebburn South6,0021,0711,65519341173276783,757
South TynesideMonkton6,3431,1251,75221242580291823,967
South TynesidePrimrose6,5201,0121,99118343079300854,080
 Total65,10311,24318,3642,3594,1238302,99282640,737

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Jarrow

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Jarrow.

JarrowPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GatesheadPelaw and Heworth6,9601,3352,2782762901190574,355
GatesheadWardley and Leam Lane6,5821,3312,0982542731090534,118
South TynesideBede6,1171,1932,047161279940523,826
South TynesideBoldon Colliery7,2821,5922,2412512921230594,558
South TynesideCleadon and East Boldon6,5931,8141,5443502471190514,125
South TynesideFellgate and Hedworth6,0201,2491,922182269950513,768
South TynesideHebburn North6,6841,2092,3322052711110554,183
South TynesideHebburn South6,0021,2961,855183276960513,757
South TynesideMonkton6,3431,3611,9612012861040533,966
South TynesidePrimrose6,5201,2542,2051732891040554,080
 Total65,10313,63420,4832,2362,7721,074053740,736

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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