Kensington: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Kensington: Overview

 Prediction: LAB gain from CON 

MP at 2019: Felicity Buchan  (CON)
County/Area: Kensington and Chelsea (London)
Electorate: 64,609
Turnout: 67.7%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON16,76838.3%36.9%
LAB16,61838.0%45.5%
LIB9,31221.3%10.6%
Green5351.2%2.6%
Brexit3840.9%0.6%
OTH1450.3%3.8%
CON Majority1500.3%Pred Maj 8.5%
Chance of
winning
CON
34%
LAB
66%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
Brexit
0%
OTH
0%

Kensington : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Kensington constituency, the 'London' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat LondonAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position6° Right2° Left
National Position24° Glo16° Glo
Social Position9° Lib5° Lib
TribeProgressives
EU Leave %31%40%52%
British Identity32%38%29%
Good Health57%51%48%
UK Born48%63%87%
Good Education62%48%39%
Good Job78%61%51%
High SEC66%55%51%
Average Age43.843.948.3
ABC1 Class77%62%54%

Kensington ranks #610 for "Leave", #248 for "Right", #610 for "National" and #553 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Kensington: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Kensington

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Kensington.

KensingtonActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Kensington and ChelseaAbingdon4,738CONCON1,617982377178101343,208
Kensington and ChelseaBrompton and Hans Town2,077CONCON78939612412330521,406
Kensington and ChelseaCampden5,035CONCON1,835942390218001433,411
Kensington and ChelseaColville5,941LABLAB9912,3573881811501564,025
Kensington and ChelseaCourtfield4,496CONCON1,558911347197501363,046
Kensington and ChelseaDalgarno4,421LABLAB6151,98222320570962,993
Kensington and ChelseaEarl's Court5,077LABLAB1,0471,3857022414901323,439
Kensington and ChelseaGolborne5,656LABLAB6392,702278177801163,830
Kensington and ChelseaHolland5,021CONCON1,5491,307302148801413,401
Kensington and ChelseaNorland3,859CONCON1,280878276166401022,616
Kensington and ChelseaNotting Dale5,635LABLAB6952,614286187401293,816
Kensington and ChelseaPembridge3,332CONCON97681928414680962,257
Kensington and ChelseaQueen's Gate4,201CONCON1,469829352177001092,846
Kensington and ChelseaRedcliffe203CONCON6942171306138
Kensington and ChelseaSt Helen's4,216LABLAB7881,598271187501062,856
Kensington and ChelseaStanley701CONCON24715139316017473
 Total64,609CONLAB16,16419,8954,6562491,12601,67143,761

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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