Leicestershire South: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Leicestershire South: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Alberto Costa  (CON)
County/Area: Leicestershire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 80,520
Turnout: 71.4%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON36,79164.0%62.8%
LAB12,78722.3%25.4%
LIB5,4529.5%5.5%
Green2,4394.2%4.8%
OTH00.0%1.5%
CON Majority24,00441.8%Pred Maj 37.3%
Chance of
winning
CON
99%
LAB
1%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Leicestershire South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Leicestershire South constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat East MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position15° Right4° Right
National Position11° Nat7° Nat
Social Position5° Con4° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %58%59%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health49%45%48%
UK Born94%90%87%
Good Education38%37%39%
Good Job53%48%51%
High SEC56%47%51%
Average Age49.848.948.3
ABC1 Class58%50%54%

Leicestershire South ranks #210 for "Leave", #61 for "Right", #131 for "National" and #161 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Leicestershire South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Leicestershire South

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Leicestershire South.

Leicestershire SouthActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BlabyBlaby South3,958CONCON1,62268032101250762,824
BlabyCosby with South Whetstone4,161CONCON1,91566210102600312,969
BlabyCountesthorpe6,109CONCON2,89280838801770964,361
BlabyCroft Hill1,923CONCON9142764301260141,373
BlabyEnderby and St John's4,177CONCON1,6901,04510501070322,979
BlabyMillfield1,920CONCON700567460450141,372
BlabyNarborough and Littlethorpe4,030CONCON1,92552712102680352,876
BlabyNormanton2,178CONCON1,088346510520161,553
BlabyNorth Whetstone4,033CONCON1,81981810601020322,877
BlabyPastures3,747CONCON1,9934471030990312,673
BlabyRavenhurst and Fosse4,892CONCON1,6141,60411801190373,492
BlabySaxondale5,583CONCON2,1591,15041301640993,985
BlabyStanton and Flamville6,803CONCON3,75274116701440524,856
BlabyWinstanley4,677CONCON1,6961,21711402760363,339
HarboroughBosworth507CONCON255801201004361
HarboroughBroughton Astley - Primethorpe and Sutton3,615CONCON1,7115199202300282,580
HarboroughBroughton Astley South and Leire3,964CONCON1,75562726201210642,829
HarboroughDunton2,088CONCON1,102283430490141,491
HarboroughFleckney201CONCON923680602144
HarboroughLutterworth East3,812CONCON1,42688524701020612,721
HarboroughLutterworth West3,796CONCON1,6478511020780312,709
HarboroughMisterton2,096CONCON1,0142441420620351,497
HarboroughUllesthorpe2,251CONCON1,285212460500151,608
 Total80,521CONCON36,06614,6253,15102,772085557,469

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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