Linlithgow and East Falkirk: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Linlithgow and East Falkirk: Overview

 Prediction: SNP hold 

MP at 2019: Martyn Day  (SNP)
County/Area: Edinburgh area (Scotland)
Electorate: 87,044
Turnout: 66.4%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
SNP25,55144.2%54.9%
CON14,28524.7%20.1%
LAB10,51718.2%18.8%
LIB4,3937.6%4.2%
Brexit1,2572.2%0.0%
Green1,1842.0%0.0%
OTH5881.0%2.0%
SNP Majority11,26619.5%Pred Maj 34.8%
Chance of
winning
SNP
97%
CON
2%
LAB
1%
LIB
0%
Brexit
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Linlithgow and East Falkirk : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Linlithgow and East Falkirk constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat ScotlandAll GB
Party Winner 2019SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2017SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2015SNPSNPCON
Economic Position26° Left23° Left
National Position12° Glo15° Glo
Social Position12° Lib13° Lib
TribeTradition
EU Leave %42%38%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health52%52%48%
UK Born96%93%87%
Good Education32%36%39%
Good Job48%49%51%
High SEC52%55%51%
Average Age48.448.648.3
ABC1 Class47%50%54%

Linlithgow and East Falkirk ranks #521 for "Leave", #630 for "Right", #534 for "National" and #587 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Linlithgow and East Falkirk: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Linlithgow and East Falkirk

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Linlithgow and East Falkirk.

Linlithgow and East FalkirkActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
FalkirkBo'ness and Blackness11,621SNPSNP1,5091,403310004,38101097,712
FalkirkFalkirk North22SNPSNP2310080014
FalkirkGrangemouth12,262SNPSNP1,1631,688334004,74202128,139
FalkirkLower Braes2,733SNPSNP51221879009680371,814
FalkirkUpper Braes9,261SNPSNP1,489993238003,28401446,148
West LothianArmadale and Blackridge12,045SNPSNP1,5331,246348004,63302357,995
West LothianBathgate17,057SNPSNP1,9382,723432006,004022411,321
West LothianBroxburn, Uphall and Winchburgh27SNPSNP43100100018
West LothianLinlithgow11,272SNPSNP2,291804446003,82801127,481
West LothianWhitburn and Blackburn10,744SNPSNP1,1741,781251003,8370887,131
 Total87,044SNPSNP11,61510,8622,4400031,69501,16157,773

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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