Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney: Overview

 Predicted winner: LAB 
 Acual winner: LAB 

MP at 2019: Gerald Jones  (LAB)
County/Area: Mid Glamorgan (Wales)
Electorate: 56,322
Turnout: 57.3%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB16,91352.4%51.6%
CON6,30719.6%25.7%
Brexit3,60411.2%8.8%
Plaid2,4467.6%8.3%
OTH1,8605.8%0.5%
LIB1,1163.5%5.1%
LAB Majority10,60632.9%Pred Maj 25.9%
Chance of
winning
LAB
89%
CON
10%
Brexit
0%
Plaid
0%
OTH
0%
LIB
0%

Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position17° Left9° Left
National Position4° Nat
Social Position2° Lib
TribeTradition
EU Leave %58%53%52%
British Identity18%26%29%
Good Health43%47%48%
UK Born96%95%88%
Good Education26%36%39%
Good Job39%46%51%
High SEC36%46%51%
Average Age48.749.648.5
ABC1 Class36%47%54%

Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney ranks #200 for "Leave", #580 for "Right", #304 for "National" and #422 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Merthyr Tydfil and RhymneyActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
OTH
Votes
CaerphillyDarren Valley20120-100000
CaerphillyMoriah201201,241000420363
CaerphillyNew Tredegar201201,7090000362
CaerphillyPontlottyn201203860001050
CaerphillyTwyn Carno201204600000211
Merthyr TydfilBedlinog201205161250001,107
Merthyr TydfilCyfarthfa201201,9240003182,212
Merthyr TydfilDowlais201203,59500001,294
Merthyr TydfilGurnos201202,16500001,744
Merthyr TydfilMerthyr Vale201201,6750000516
Merthyr TydfilPark201202,62300001,014
Merthyr TydfilPenydarren201201,3410588001,639
Merthyr TydfilPlymouth2012502,5822290001,675
Merthyr TydfilTown201204,0111,529007411,663
Merthyr TydfilTreharris201202,41900002,015
Merthyr TydfilVaynor2012025100002,056

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Merthyr Tydfil and RhymneyEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CaerphillyDarren Valley1,947218599341300710631,115
CaerphillyMoriah3,3673311,00353225020501091,926
CaerphillyNew Tredegar3,7263911,19059243013101202,134
CaerphillyPontlottyn1,4271444272495081046817
CaerphillyTwyn Carno1,832175605281130680581,047
Merthyr TydfilBedlinog2,4513056876016701020831,404
Merthyr TydfilCyfarthfa5,1466151,473109315026201722,946
Merthyr TydfilDowlais5,1885331,65595318020101692,971
Merthyr TydfilGurnos3,9543191,39057227014401262,263
Merthyr TydfilMerthyr Vale2,8592809225217901110931,637
Merthyr TydfilPark3,23936298169198013501081,853
Merthyr TydfilPenydarren4,0564951,16671298016101322,323
Merthyr TydfilPlymouth3,9664841,14495254016001342,271
Merthyr TydfilTown5,7276861,576147377029701973,280
Merthyr TydfilTreharris4,7786111,361104299020001602,735
Merthyr TydfilVaynor2,6583587345816601170881,521
 Total56,3216,30716,9131,1153,60402,44601,85832,243

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney.

Merthyr Tydfil and RhymneyPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CaerphillyDarren Valley1,94728759052102079061,116
CaerphillyMoriah3,3674509878517702180101,927
CaerphillyNew Tredegar3,7265211,1739419101450112,135
CaerphillyPontlottyn1,427194420377508604816
CaerphillyTwyn Carno1,8322375964589075051,047
Merthyr TydfilBedlinog2,451394676841310112071,404
Merthyr TydfilCyfarthfa5,1467961,44915724802820152,947
Merthyr TydfilDowlais5,1887121,63114325002210152,972
Merthyr TydfilGurnos3,9544511,3729217801580112,262
Merthyr TydfilMerthyr Vale2,859379909781410122081,637
Merthyr TydfilPark3,239475966991560147091,852
Merthyr TydfilPenydarren4,0566431,14711023401770122,323
Merthyr TydfilPlymouth3,9666261,12513320001760122,272
Merthyr TydfilTown5,7278951,54920229603200173,279
Merthyr TydfilTreharris4,7787801,33914923502180142,735
Merthyr TydfilVaynor2,658451722831300127081,521
 Total56,3218,29116,6511,6432,83302,663016432,245

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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