Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney: Seat Details

Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney: Overview

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:Gerald Jones  (LAB)
County/Area:Mid Glamorgan (Wales)
Electorate:56,322
Turnout:57.3%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
LAB16,91352.4%56.7%
CON6,30719.6%11.5%
Reform3,60411.2%12.3%
Plaid2,4467.6%12.8%
OTH1,8605.8%0.0%
LIB1,1163.5%2.8%
Green00.0%3.9%
LAB Majority10,60632.9%44.0%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
LAB
100%
CON
0%
Reform
0%
Plaid
0%
OTH
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%

Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position17° Left8° Left
National Position4° Nat
Social Position2° Lib
TribeTradition
EU Leave %58%53%52%
Average Age50.251.149.5
Good Education39%49%49%
Employed53%53%58%
Homeowner63%67%63%
Car owner75%81%77%
Married41%44%45%
Ethnic White97%94%83%
Christian41%47%50%
ABC1 Class42%52%56%
Gross Household Income£31,705£36,386£42,397
Deprivation61%54%52%
Average House Price£127,329£193,404£313,528

Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney ranks #200 for "Leave", #580 for "Economic Right Position", #304 for "National Position" and #422 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney.

Merthyr Tydfil and RhymneyActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CaerphillyDarran Valley1,712LABLAB9658829120407600949
CaerphillyMoriah and Pontlottyn4,106LABLAB2031,2806126987324002,224
CaerphillyNew Tredegar3,146LABLAB1401,0284519464169001,640
CaerphillyTwyn Carno1,810LABLAB74634261053910700985
Merthyr TydfilBedlinog and Trelewis2,933LABLAB2078956423870199001,673
Merthyr TydfilCyfarthfa5,408LABLAB4461,68384404130505003,252
Merthyr TydfilDowlais and Pant5,176LABLAB3351,68372373110384002,957
Merthyr TydfilGurnos3,631LABLAB1611,2233923171261001,986
Merthyr TydfilMerthyr Vale2,770LABLAB1289604717859162001,534
Merthyr TydfilPark3,440LABLAB2521,1895423781240002,053
Merthyr TydfilPenydarren3,982LABLAB2391,2725527986315002,246
Merthyr TydfilPlymouth4,105LABLAB2691,4636426897273002,434
Merthyr TydfilTown6,092LABLAB4821,833119456140511003,541
Merthyr TydfilTreharris5,162LABLAB4221,70989380130384003,114
Merthyr TydfilVaynor2,847LABLAB2598555522466206001,665
 Total56,320LABLAB3,71318,2959033,9561,2704,1160032,253

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2023.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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