Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney: Overview

 Prediction: LAB hold 

MP at 2019: Gerald Jones  (LAB)
County/Area: Mid Glamorgan (Wales)
Electorate: 56,322
Turnout: 57.3%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB16,91352.4%56.5%
CON6,30719.6%18.3%
Brexit3,60411.2%7.3%
Plaid2,4467.6%7.6%
OTH1,8605.8%7.7%
LIB1,1163.5%1.9%
Green00.0%0.7%
LAB Majority10,60632.9%Pred Maj 38.2%
Chance of
winning
LAB
99%
CON
1%
Brexit
0%
Plaid
0%
OTH
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%

Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position17° Left8° Left
National Position4° Nat
Social Position2° Lib
TribeTradition
EU Leave %58%53%52%
British Identity18%26%29%
Good Health43%47%48%
UK Born96%94%87%
Good Education26%37%39%
Good Job39%46%51%
High SEC36%46%51%
Average Age48.749.548.3
ABC1 Class36%48%54%

Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney ranks #200 for "Leave", #580 for "Right", #304 for "National" and #422 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney.

Merthyr Tydfil and RhymneyActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CaerphillyDarren Valley1,825LABLAB17961112777680901,044
CaerphillyMoriah3,165LABLAB2261,086191051025401121,812
CaerphillyNew Tredegar3,383LABLAB2801,144191291217901731,936
CaerphillyPontlottyn1,446LABLAB1404521262696061829
CaerphillyTwyn Carno1,685LABLAB116662959551063965
Merthyr TydfilBedlinog2,819LABLAB310803491321511401911,614
Merthyr TydfilCyfarthfa5,273LABLAB6621,529492322330102243,020
Merthyr TydfilDowlais5,162LABLAB5731,638432352219702482,956
Merthyr TydfilGurnos3,592LABLAB2891,285261551412001682,057
Merthyr TydfilMerthyr Vale2,778LABLAB244977261141111001101,592
Merthyr TydfilPark3,394LABLAB3741,152381311410801261,943
Merthyr TydfilPenydarren3,917LABLAB3871,307351761716101612,244
Merthyr TydfilPlymouth4,024LABLAB4041,492401411511301002,305
Merthyr TydfilTown5,960LABLAB7161,7331232623225602923,414
Merthyr TydfilTreharris5,084LABLAB6181,587712072320302002,909
Merthyr TydfilVaynor2,814LABLAB389780301261311601581,612
 Total56,321LABLAB5,90718,2386012,3432392,44702,47732,252

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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