Monmouth: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Monmouth: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: David Davies  (CON)
County/Area: Gwent (Wales)
Electorate: 67,094
Turnout: 74.8%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON26,16052.1%50.8%
LAB16,17832.2%35.7%
LIB4,9099.8%5.3%
Green1,3532.7%3.3%
Plaid1,1822.4%2.4%
OTH4350.9%2.5%
CON Majority9,98219.9%Pred Maj 15.1%
Chance of
winning
CON
83%
LAB
17%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
Plaid
0%
OTH
0%

Monmouth : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Monmouth constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position5° Right8° Left
National Position1° Nat
Social Position2° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %48%53%52%
British Identity34%26%29%
Good Health46%47%48%
UK Born95%94%87%
Good Education44%37%39%
Good Job55%46%51%
High SEC58%46%51%
Average Age53.049.548.3
ABC1 Class58%48%54%

Monmouth ranks #443 for "Leave", #271 for "Right", #367 for "National" and #386 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Monmouth: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Monmouth

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Monmouth.

MonmouthActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
MonmouthshireCaerwent1,725CONCON78433280034280331,291
MonmouthshireCantref1,696CONCON63347270041200321,268
MonmouthshireCastle1,619CONCON62444167037160271,212
MonmouthshireCroesonen1,656LABLAB39271052039200271,240
MonmouthshireCrucorney1,799CONCON77437454046520471,347
MonmouthshireDevauden1,247CONCON5892603102416013933
MonmouthshireDixton with Osbaston1,902CONCON772358162051150651,423
MonmouthshireDrybridge2,689CONCON1,033662118066740592,012
MonmouthshireGoetre Fawr1,928CONCON88342754040190211,444
MonmouthshireGrofield1,353CONLAB393406106055200321,012
MonmouthshireLansdown1,637LABLAB37072748032290201,226
MonmouthshireLarkfield1,561CONCON534403130040160461,169
MonmouthshireLlanbadoc1,123CONCON5082213303124023840
MonmouthshireLlanelly Hill3,241CONCON1,1059181070841530592,426
MonmouthshireLlanfoist Fawr1,887CONCON79145761047180391,413
MonmouthshireLlangybi Fawr1,527CONCON73724349060320211,142
MonmouthshireLlanover1,802CONCON90034835033110211,348
MonmouthshireLlantilio Crossenny1,509CONCON65327942093390261,132
MonmouthshireLlanwenarth Ultra1,105CONLAB369370310218027826
MonmouthshireMardy1,395CONCON57333442032380241,043
MonmouthshireMitchel Troy984CONCON4341835602516022736
MonmouthshireOvermonnow1,676CONCON56451462039420331,254
MonmouthshirePortskewett1,830CONCON70251244035500271,370
MonmouthshirePriory1,552CONLAB49452660033270221,162
MonmouthshireRaglan1,602CONCON631327126043280451,200
MonmouthshireShirenewton1,880CONCON89433265052270371,407
MonmouthshireSt Arvans1,309CONCON5912575003219032981
MonmouthshireSt Christopher's1,822LABLAB50968964040370241,363
MonmouthshireSt Kingsmark2,353CONCON1,028469110063250661,761
MonmouthshireSt Mary's1,549CONLAB414496137047270371,158
MonmouthshireThornwell2,064LABLAB55081658039560261,545
MonmouthshireTrellech United2,203CONCON1,00441969063380561,649
MonmouthshireUsk2,013CONCON93439078048210381,509
MonmouthshireWyesham1,745CONCON58656262039250321,306
TorfaenCroesyceiliog North2,765LABLAB8341,03480058330322,071
TorfaenCroesyceiliog South1,509CONLAB50352041029150201,128
TorfaenLlanyrafon East and Ponthir1,834CONCON84239451037280201,372
TorfaenLlanyrafon West2,008LABLAB59276067040170261,502
 Total67,099CONCON25,52317,9422,65201,6681,17901,25750,221

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


Go back to home page.

© 2020 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (24-Jul-2020 19:51, Py3L, sc3023)