Newark: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Newark: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Robert Jenrick  (CON)
County/Area: Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 75,855
Turnout: 72.2%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON34,66063.3%62.0%
LAB12,84423.5%26.7%
LIB5,3089.7%5.6%
Green1,9503.6%4.1%
OTH00.0%1.5%
CON Majority21,81639.8%Pred Maj 35.3%
Chance of
winning
CON
99%
LAB
1%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Newark : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Newark constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat East MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position12° Right4° Right
National Position9° Nat7° Nat
Social Position5° Con4° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %58%59%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health47%45%48%
UK Born94%90%87%
Good Education40%37%39%
Good Job52%48%51%
High SEC55%47%51%
Average Age51.148.948.3
ABC1 Class55%50%54%

Newark ranks #229 for "Leave", #109 for "Right", #160 for "National" and #181 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Newark: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Newark

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Newark.

NewarkActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BassetlawEast Markham2,020CONCON1,132234410370141,458
BassetlawRampton1,692CONCON820329320300111,222
BassetlawTuxford and Trent3,514CONCON1,608748830730262,538
Newark and SherwoodBalderton North and Coddington5,245CONCON2,56286918701160523,786
Newark and SherwoodBalderton South3,868CONCON1,7118731020760312,793
Newark and SherwoodBeacon6,251CONCON2,4041,49120303560584,512
Newark and SherwoodBridge4,220CONCON1,7331,04412801040373,046
Newark and SherwoodCastle2,451CONCON9076701010640271,769
Newark and SherwoodCollingham4,677CONCON2,17873327301250693,378
Newark and SherwoodDevon6,136CONCON2,0751,84015203160474,430
Newark and SherwoodDover Beck2,003CONCON1,054297400410141,446
Newark and SherwoodFarndon and Fernwood5,064CONCON2,37277231101240773,656
Newark and SherwoodLowdham2,282CONCON1,0393539301380251,648
Newark and SherwoodMuskham2,426CONCON1,256317990530271,752
Newark and SherwoodRainworth North and Rufford417CONCON17310790903301
Newark and SherwoodSouthwell6,034CONCON2,629950481018201154,357
Newark and SherwoodSutton-on-Trent2,512CONCON1,416286460490161,813
Newark and SherwoodTrent2,358CONCON1,1433081500640371,702
RushcliffeBingham East3,848CONCON1,62966230201140722,779
RushcliffeBingham West3,596CONCON1,5598131070860312,596
RushcliffeCranmer2,000CONCON872465500410161,444
RushcliffeEast Bridgford1,485CONCON705278420360121,073
RushcliffeThoroton1,750CONCON994186350380121,265
 Total75,849CONCON33,97114,6253,06702,272082954,764

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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