Newcastle upon Tyne North: Seat Details

WARNING: This is the page for the old seat. The new seats, which will be used at the next general election, are more relevant. See the new seat of Newcastle upon Tyne North, or click here to find another new seat.

Newcastle upon Tyne North: Overview

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:Catherine McKinnell  (LAB)
County/Area:Newcastle area (North East)
Electorate:68,486
Turnout:68.6%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
LAB21,35445.4%52.5%
CON15,58933.2%13.4%
LIB4,3579.3%7.7%
Reform4,3319.2%18.6%
Green1,3682.9%6.2%
OTH00.0%1.6%
LAB Majority5,76512.3%33.9%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
LAB
99%
CON
0%
LIB
0%
Reform
1%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Newcastle upon Tyne North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Newcastle upon Tyne North constituency, the 'North East' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat North EastAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position10° Left9° Left
National Position1° Nat4° Nat
Social Position2° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %52%58%52%
Average Age50.650.749.5
Good Education51%47%49%
Employed56%52%58%
Homeowner66%62%63%
Car owner74%73%77%
Married45%43%45%
Ethnic White90%93%83%
Christian51%53%50%
ABC1 Class58%51%56%
Gross Household Income£37,691£35,265£42,397
Deprivation50%54%52%
Average House Price£211,781£162,902£313,528

Newcastle upon Tyne North ranks #353 for "Leave", #494 for "Economic Right Position", #376 for "National Position" and #427 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Newcastle upon Tyne North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Newcastle upon Tyne North

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Newcastle upon Tyne North.

Newcastle upon Tyne NorthActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
Newcastle upon TyneCallerton and Throckley7,004LABLAB
Newcastle upon TyneCastle9,255LABLAB
Newcastle upon TyneChapel7,478LABLAB
Newcastle upon TyneDene and South Gosforth3,355LABLAB
Newcastle upon TyneDenton and Westerhope8,639LABLAB
Newcastle upon TyneFawdon and West Gosforth4,823LABLAB
Newcastle upon TyneGosforth2,716CONLAB
Newcastle upon TyneKenton2,084LABLAB
Newcastle upon TyneKingston Park South and Newbiggin Hall7,011LABLAB
Newcastle upon TyneLemington7,253LABLAB
Newcastle upon TyneParklands8,868CONLAB
 Total68,486LABLAB

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2023.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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