Norfolk North West: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Norfolk North West: Overview

 Predicted winner: CON 
 Acual winner: CON 

MP at 2019: James Wild  (CON)
County/Area: Norfolk (Anglia)
Electorate: 72,080
Turnout: 64.7%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON30,62765.7%62.2%
LAB10,70523.0%25.1%
LIB3,6257.8%9.8%
Green1,6453.5%2.9%
CON Majority19,92242.7%Pred Maj 37.0%
Chance of
winning
CON
97%
LAB
3%
LIB
0%
Green
0%

Norfolk North West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Norfolk North West constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat AngliaAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position8° Right9° Right
National Position17° Nat7° Nat
Social Position10° Con3° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %65%56%52%
British Identity23%27%29%
Good Health40%47%48%
UK Born92%89%88%
Good Education30%37%39%
Good Job41%53%51%
High SEC43%53%51%
Average Age52.549.448.5
ABC1 Class42%55%54%

Norfolk North West ranks #70 for "Leave", #222 for "Right", #21 for "National" and #29 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Norfolk North West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Norfolk North West: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Norfolk North West

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Norfolk North West at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Norfolk North West. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Norfolk North WestActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
OTH
Votes
King's Lynn and West NorfolkBrancaster20155370000300
King's Lynn and West NorfolkBurnham20156540276000
King's Lynn and West NorfolkClenchwarton20156540000597
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDersingham20152,693091385500
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDocking20157612930000
King's Lynn and West NorfolkFairstead20151,0621,480059900
King's Lynn and West NorfolkGayton2015755003981650
King's Lynn and West NorfolkGaywood Chase20151,2151,477064900
King's Lynn and West NorfolkGaywood North Bank20153,7042,72901,02101,111
King's Lynn and West NorfolkGrimston2015572002954540
King's Lynn and West NorfolkHeacham20153,1301,4150000
King's Lynn and West NorfolkHunstanton20153,1870070003,429
King's Lynn and West NorfolkNorth Lynn20157821,527068500
King's Lynn and West NorfolkNorth Wootton2015796294032000
King's Lynn and West NorfolkOld Gaywood201533827802391410
King's Lynn and West NorfolkPriory20155688160000
King's Lynn and West NorfolkRudham20158000042800
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSnettisham20152,8911,1100000
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSouth Wootton20153,2550001,3090
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSouth and West Lynn20151,3821,6350000
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSpellowfields20152,039150075600
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSpringwood201544630016021000
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSt Margarets with St Nicholas20151,2451,077006520
King's Lynn and West NorfolkValley Hill20154660000899
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWalpole20156680050100
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWest Winch20152,591001,73600

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Norfolk North WestEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
King's Lynn and West NorfolkBrancaster979469875602100633
King's Lynn and West NorfolkBurnham1,3006041238403000841
King's Lynn and West NorfolkClenchwarton1,60675617276034001,038
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDersingham3,5221,646339214079002,278
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDocking1,4696631807603200951
King's Lynn and West NorfolkFairstead4,9161,7161,1452060110003,177
King's Lynn and West NorfolkGayton1,69978317893045001,099
King's Lynn and West NorfolkGaywood Chase3,8261,412797177088002,474
King's Lynn and West NorfolkGaywood North Bank5,7952,4398842960128003,747
King's Lynn and West NorfolkGrimston1,773814183101048001,146
King's Lynn and West NorfolkHeacham3,6051,624458173075002,330
King's Lynn and West NorfolkHunstanton4,1151,889468212091002,660
King's Lynn and West NorfolkNorth Lynn4,6081,5541,167160098002,979
King's Lynn and West NorfolkNorth Wootton1,861838206115044001,203
King's Lynn and West NorfolkOld Gaywood1,4535832437404000940
King's Lynn and West NorfolkPriory1,86073432998042001,203
King's Lynn and West NorfolkRudham1,58876314684034001,027
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSnettisham3,0601,390359162067001,978
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSouth Wootton3,4151,560323229095002,207
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSouth and West Lynn3,7891,399814155082002,450
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSpellowfields3,5761,708364165074002,311
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSpringwood1,54461623211004000998
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSt Margarets with St Nicholas3,6661,2898221580101002,370
King's Lynn and West NorfolkValley Hill1,71278719290038001,107
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWalpole1,74384616878036001,128
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWest Winch3,5951,742325183074002,324
 Total72,07530,62410,7043,62501,6460046,599

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Norfolk North West

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Norfolk North West.

Norfolk North WestPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
King's Lynn and West NorfolkBrancaster9794471016901700634
King's Lynn and West NorfolkBurnham1,30057414110102500841
King's Lynn and West NorfolkClenchwarton1,60671919497028001,038
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDersingham3,5221,565388259065002,277
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDocking1,4696292009502600950
King's Lynn and West NorfolkFairstead4,9161,6031,213269091003,176
King's Lynn and West NorfolkGayton1,699744202115037001,098
King's Lynn and West NorfolkGaywood Chase3,8261,324850227073002,474
King's Lynn and West NorfolkGaywood North Bank5,7952,3069653710106003,748
King's Lynn and West NorfolkGrimston1,773773208125040001,146
King's Lynn and West NorfolkHeacham3,6051,541508219062002,330
King's Lynn and West NorfolkHunstanton4,1151,795525265075002,660
King's Lynn and West NorfolkNorth Lynn4,6081,4481,231219081002,979
King's Lynn and West NorfolkNorth Wootton1,861795232139036001,202
King's Lynn and West NorfolkOld Gaywood1,4535502649303300940
King's Lynn and West NorfolkPriory1,860691355122035001,203
King's Lynn and West NorfolkRudham1,588727168104028001,027
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSnettisham3,0601,320401201055001,977
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSouth Wootton3,4151,482372275078002,207
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSouth and West Lynn3,7891,312867204068002,451
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSpellowfields3,5761,626413211061002,311
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSpringwood1,54458125413003300998
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSt Margarets with St Nicholas3,6661,205875207083002,370
King's Lynn and West NorfolkValley Hill1,712748216112031001,107
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWalpole1,743806192100030001,128
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWest Winch3,5951,660374229061002,324
 Total72,07528,97111,7094,55801,3580046,596

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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