Norfolk South: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Norfolk South: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Richard Bacon  (CON)
County/Area: Norfolk (Anglia)
Electorate: 86,214
Turnout: 72.5%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON36,25858.0%56.8%
LAB14,98324.0%29.0%
LIB8,74414.0%7.0%
Green2,4994.0%4.9%
OTH00.0%2.3%
CON Majority21,27534.0%Pred Maj 27.8%
Chance of
winning
CON
95%
LAB
5%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Norfolk South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Norfolk South constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat AngliaAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position11° Right9° Right
National Position7° Nat7° Nat
Social Position3° Con3° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %51%56%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health47%47%48%
UK Born95%89%87%
Good Education39%37%39%
Good Job53%52%51%
High SEC55%53%51%
Average Age52.349.348.3
ABC1 Class56%55%54%

Norfolk South ranks #375 for "Leave", #132 for "Right", #228 for "National" and #256 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Norfolk South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Norfolk South

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Norfolk South.

Norfolk SouthActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
South NorfolkBeck Vale, Dickleburgh and Scole5,249CONCON2,4271,02215701390593,804
South NorfolkBressingham and Burston2,749CONCON1,2404557601930291,993
South NorfolkBrooke2,692CONCON1,2094691390850471,949
South NorfolkBunwell2,504CONCON1,140472950730341,814
South NorfolkCringleford3,749CONCON1,50588915201180542,718
South NorfolkDiss and Roydon8,160CONCON3,1631,943424024101435,914
South NorfolkDitchingham and Earsham5,256CONCON2,0011,117391018101223,812
South NorfolkEaston1,570CONCON743289450450171,139
South NorfolkForncett2,742CONCON1,1555321580900521,987
South NorfolkHarleston4,759CONCON1,9361,15416701310603,448
South NorfolkHempnall2,631CONCON1,0995361400850471,907
South NorfolkHethersett6,443CONCON2,8511,29624501900874,669
South NorfolkLoddon and Chedgrave4,621CONCON1,8881,09216501440603,349
South NorfolkMulbarton and Stoke Holy Cross7,315CONCON2,9441,517448024501485,302
South NorfolkNew Costessey793LABCON26620658027018575
South NorfolkNewton Flotman2,510CONCON1,0625061260830431,820
South NorfolkOld Costessey7,006CONCON2,5461,518599025201635,078
South NorfolkPoringland, Framinghams and Trowse6,098CONCON2,4341,194368030201224,420
South NorfolkRockland2,780CONCON1,1645249102020332,014
South NorfolkStratton3,408CONCON1,37973518301120612,470
South NorfolkThurlton2,644CONCON1,0755591460880491,917
South NorfolkWicklewood536CONCON243831803707388
 Total86,215CONCON35,47018,1084,39103,06301,45562,487

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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