Norfolk South: Seat Details

WARNING: This is the page for the old seat. The new seats, which will be used at the next general election, are more relevant. See the new seat of Norfolk South, or click here to find another new seat.

Norfolk South: Overview

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:Richard Bacon  (CON)
County/Area:Norfolk (Anglia)
Electorate:86,214
Turnout:72.5%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON36,25858.0%29.3%
LAB14,98324.0%31.2%
LIB8,74414.0%15.9%
Green2,4994.0%6.8%
Reform00.0%16.3%
OTH00.0%0.6%
CON Majority21,27534.0%1.9%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
CON
42%
LAB
51%
LIB
3%
Green
0%
Reform
4%
OTH
0%

Norfolk South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Norfolk South constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat AngliaAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position11° Right9° Right
National Position7° Nat7° Nat
Social Position3° Con3° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %51%56%52%
Average Age53.350.549.5
Good Education50%48%49%
Employed58%59%58%
Homeowner75%67%63%
Car owner90%84%77%
Married52%47%45%
Ethnic White95%86%83%
Christian51%50%50%
ABC1 Class62%58%56%
Gross Household Income£45,994£45,686£42,397
Deprivation48%50%52%
Average House Price£298,026£352,365£313,528

Norfolk South ranks #375 for "Leave", #132 for "Economic Right Position", #228 for "National Position" and #256 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Norfolk South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Norfolk South

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Norfolk South.

Norfolk SouthActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
South NorfolkBeck Vale, Dickleburgh and Scole5,242CONCON
South NorfolkBressingham and Burston2,748CONCON
South NorfolkBrooke2,687CONCON
South NorfolkBunwell2,499CONCON
South NorfolkCringleford3,744CONLAB
South NorfolkDiss and Roydon8,158CONLAB
South NorfolkDitchingham and Earsham5,250CONCON
South NorfolkEaston1,572CONCON
South NorfolkForncett2,742CONCON
South NorfolkHarleston4,760CONLAB
South NorfolkHempnall2,623CONLAB
South NorfolkHethersett6,441CONLAB
South NorfolkLoddon and Chedgrave4,621CONLAB
South NorfolkMulbarton and Stoke Holy Cross7,300CONLAB
South NorfolkNew Costessey828LABLAB
South NorfolkNewton Flotman2,508CONLAB
South NorfolkOld Costessey7,014CONLAB
South NorfolkPoringland, Framinghams and Trowse6,100CONLAB
South NorfolkRockland2,774CONLAB
South NorfolkStratton3,407CONLAB
South NorfolkThurlton2,654CONLAB
South NorfolkWicklewood542CONCON
 Total86,214CONLAB

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2023.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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