Northamptonshire South: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Northamptonshire South: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Andrea Leadsom  (CON)
County/Area: Northamptonshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 90,840
Turnout: 73.7%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON41,75562.4%61.1%
LAB13,99420.9%24.7%
LIB7,89111.8%6.8%
Green2,6343.9%4.6%
OTH6340.9%2.7%
CON Majority27,76141.5%Pred Maj 36.4%
Chance of
winning
CON
98%
LAB
2%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Northamptonshire South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Northamptonshire South constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat East MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position18° Right4° Right
National Position5° Nat7° Nat
Social Position3° Con4° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %53%59%52%
British Identity28%27%29%
Good Health52%45%48%
UK Born93%90%87%
Good Education44%37%39%
Good Job60%48%51%
High SEC63%47%51%
Average Age49.248.948.3
ABC1 Class65%50%54%

Northamptonshire South ranks #333 for "Leave", #14 for "Right", #269 for "National" and #298 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Northamptonshire South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Northamptonshire South

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Northamptonshire South.

Northamptonshire SouthActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
NorthamptonEast Hunsbury7,317CONCON3,0921,592329024501315,389
NorthamptonNene Valley8,274CONCON3,3201,837414029902246,094
NorthamptonRushmills544CONCON2041412701909400
NorthamptonUpton6,403CONCON2,5611,530310021601004,717
NorthamptonWest Hunsbury3,271CONCON1,37272215501100502,409
South NorthamptonshireAstwell1,639CONCON789282620510211,205
South NorthamptonshireBlakesley and Cote2,857CONCON1,4514111110940392,106
South NorthamptonshireBlisworth and Roade4,098CONCON1,97866015701340873,016
South NorthamptonshireBrackley East5,141CONCON2,430818233018401203,785
South NorthamptonshireBrackley South3,116CONCON1,24369615001210842,294
South NorthamptonshireBrackley West3,387CONCON1,578549142012201042,495
South NorthamptonshireBrafield and Yardley3,435CONCON1,64553015001240822,531
South NorthamptonshireCosgrove and Grafton1,612CONCON728327580530211,187
South NorthamptonshireDanvers and Wardoun2,968CONCON1,5653691100930512,188
South NorthamptonshireDeanshanger3,316CONCON1,47868912201070472,443
South NorthamptonshireGrange Park2,926CONCON1,3235431220940742,156
South NorthamptonshireHackleton2,297CONCON1,162316900740501,692
South NorthamptonshireKings Sutton1,828CONCON713469790580271,346
South NorthamptonshireKingthorn1,457CONCON763186590460201,074
South NorthamptonshireLittle Brook1,602CONCON852197540490261,178
South NorthamptonshireMiddleton Cheney3,322CONCON1,65548213501060692,447
South NorthamptonshireOld Stratford1,769CONCON888245690570441,303
South NorthamptonshireSalcey1,833CONCON916276720600261,350
South NorthamptonshireSilverstone2,000CONCON979331720650261,473
South NorthamptonshireSteane1,664CONCON865226610530221,227
South NorthamptonshireTove1,534CONCON811191550470251,129
South NorthamptonshireTowcester Brook5,085CONCON1,762997668019901203,746
South NorthamptonshireTowcester Mill2,889CONCON1,07649837401110692,128
South NorthamptonshireWashington1,524CONCON807190570500201,124
South NorthamptonshireWhittlewood1,733CONCON909227610520251,274
 Total90,841CONCON40,91516,5274,55803,09301,81366,906

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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