Ogmore: Seat Details

Ogmore: Overview

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:Chris Elmore  (LAB)
County/Area:Mid Glamorgan (Wales)
Electorate:57,581
Turnout:61.5%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
LAB17,60249.7%54.1%
CON9,79727.7%22.4%
Brexit2,9918.5%7.7%
Plaid2,9198.2%8.2%
LIB1,4604.1%2.3%
Green6211.8%3.3%
OTH00.0%1.9%
LAB Majority7,80522.1%31.6%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
LAB
98%
CON
2%
Brexit
0%
Plaid
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Ogmore : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Ogmore constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position16° Left8° Left
National Position3° Nat
Social Position2° Lib2° Lib
TribeTradition
EU Leave %57%53%52%
British Identity20%26%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born98%94%87%
Good Education28%37%39%
Good Job41%46%51%
High SEC38%46%51%
Average Age48.749.548.3
ABC1 Class39%48%54%

Ogmore ranks #245 for "Leave", #570 for "Right", #327 for "National" and #469 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Ogmore: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Ogmore

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Ogmore.

OgmoreActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BridgendAberkenfig1,854LABLAB2455323188381820231,139
BridgendBettws (Ogmore)1,625LABLAB131666161132728017998
BridgendBlackmill1,926LABLAB200749238937640221,184
BridgendBlaengarw1,304LABLAB13749419602650016802
BridgendBryncethin1,083LABLAB13535819492467013665
BridgendBryncoch1,795LABLAB210640238332950211,104
BridgendCaerau4,863LABLAB4741,91857242861560562,989
BridgendCefn Cribwr1,194LABLAB15239412552186013733
BridgendFelindre2,163LABLAB483610268939580241,329
BridgendHendre3,157CONLAB76981035129571050351,940
BridgendLlangeinor893LABLAB11532910431628010551
BridgendLlangynwyd2,400LABLAB35364339122891990301,475
BridgendMaesteg East3,734LABLAB5161,25051197691680442,295
BridgendMaesteg West4,387LABLAB5781,43374229882400552,697
BridgendNant-y-moel1,760LABLAB209639268537640211,081
BridgendOgmore Vale2,339LABLAB25079944110491560301,438
BridgendPenprysg2,477CONCON63257434101471050291,522
BridgendPontycymmer1,768LABLAB164730237536410201,089
BridgendSarn1,852LABLAB211674288833820221,138
BridgendYnysawdre2,706LABLAB37974544132592720331,664
Rhondda Cynon TafBrynna3,484LABLAB4541,05748162673120412,141
Rhondda Cynon TafGilfach Goch2,535LABLAB2211,0245110749750321,559
Rhondda Cynon TafLlanharan2,762LABLAB36992037122541630321,697
Rhondda Cynon TafLlanharry3,007LABLAB4441,0125114561960371,846
Rhondda Cynon TafPont-y-clun485LABLAB1021281019102506300
Rhondda Cynon TafTalbot Green27LABLAB4911010016
 Total57,580LABLAB7,93719,1378322,7351,1512,918068235,392

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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