Ogmore: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Ogmore: Overview

 Prediction: LAB hold 

MP at 2019: Chris Elmore  (LAB)
County/Area: Mid Glamorgan (Wales)
Electorate: 57,581
Turnout: 61.5%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB17,60249.7%53.5%
CON9,79727.7%26.4%
Brexit2,9918.5%5.5%
Plaid2,9198.2%8.2%
LIB1,4604.1%2.2%
Green6211.8%2.4%
OTH00.0%1.7%
LAB Majority7,80522.1%Pred Maj 27.1%
Chance of
winning
LAB
96%
CON
4%
Brexit
0%
Plaid
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Ogmore : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Ogmore constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position16° Left8° Left
National Position3° Nat
Social Position2° Lib2° Lib
TribeTradition
EU Leave %57%53%52%
British Identity20%26%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born98%94%87%
Good Education28%37%39%
Good Job41%46%51%
High SEC38%46%51%
Average Age48.749.548.3
ABC1 Class39%48%54%

Ogmore ranks #245 for "Leave", #570 for "Right", #327 for "National" and #469 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Ogmore: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Ogmore

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Ogmore.

OgmoreActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BridgendAberkenfig1,854LABLAB2905263062281820211,139
BridgendBettws (Ogmore)1,625LABLAB16766815812128019999
BridgendBlackmill1,926LABLAB248741226327640191,184
BridgendBlaengarw1,304LABLAB16948918431950014802
BridgendBryncethin1,083LABLAB16135418351967012666
BridgendBryncoch1,795LABLAB254632225923950181,103
BridgendCaerau4,863LABLAB5941,90054172621560502,988
BridgendCefn Cribwr1,194LABLAB18238912391586011734
BridgendFelindre2,163LABLAB536598246328580201,327
BridgendHendre3,157CONCON8467933392411050291,939
BridgendLlangeinor893LABLAB137325931112809550
BridgendLlangynwyd2,400LABLAB4126363786771990271,474
BridgendMaesteg East3,734LABLAB6081,23949140501680412,295
BridgendMaesteg West4,387LABLAB6861,42171163652400522,698
BridgendNant-y-moel1,760LABLAB252633246028640191,080
BridgendOgmore Vale2,339LABLAB3087904278371560271,438
BridgendPenprysg2,477CONCON6935613272341050241,521
BridgendPontycymmer1,768LABLAB207721225327410171,088
BridgendSarn1,852LABLAB256667266224820201,137
BridgendYnysawdre2,706LABLAB4467364294452720301,665
Rhondda Cynon TafBrynna3,484LABLAB5401,04345115493120362,140
Rhondda Cynon TafGilfach Goch2,535LABLAB2811,014487635750291,558
Rhondda Cynon TafLlanharan2,762LABLAB4379083686401630281,698
Rhondda Cynon TafLlanharry3,007LABLAB5181,0014910345960341,846
Rhondda Cynon TafPont-y-clun485LABLAB11412691472505300
Rhondda Cynon TafTalbot Green27LABLAB5911010017
 Total57,580LABLAB9,34718,9207901,9438572,918061135,386

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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