Orkney and Shetland: Seat Details

WARNING: This is the page for the old seat. The new seats, which will be used at the next general election, are more relevant. See the new seat of Orkney and Shetland, or click here to find another new seat.

Orkney and Shetland: Overview

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2019:Alistair Carmichael  (LIB)
County/Area:Orkney and Shetland (Scotland)
Electorate:34,211
Turnout:67.7%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
LIB10,38144.8%42.2%
SNP7,87434.0%22.8%
CON2,2879.9%1.7%
LAB1,5506.7%27.6%
Reform9003.9%3.5%
OTH1680.7%0.0%
Green00.0%2.3%
LIB Majority2,50710.8%14.6%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
LIB
78%
SNP
7%
CON
0%
LAB
15%
Reform
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%

Orkney and Shetland : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Orkney and Shetland constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat ScotlandAll GB
Party Winner 2019LIBSNPCON
Party Winner 2017LIBSNPCON
Party Winner 2015LIBSNPCON
Economic Position16° Left23° Left
National Position10° Glo15° Glo
Social Position12° Lib13° Lib
TribeProgressives
EU Leave %40%38%52%
Average Age50.448.649.5
Good Education35%36%49%
Employed74%64%58%
Homeowner68%62%63%
Car owner81%69%77%
Married50%45%45%
Ethnic White99%96%83%
Christian48%54%50%
ABC1 Class42%50%56%
Gross Household Income£30,936£31,060£42,397
Deprivation57%60%52%
Average House Price£157,579£174,274£313,528

Orkney and Shetland ranks #543 for "Leave", #575 for "Economic Right Position", #524 for "National Position" and #586 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Orkney and Shetland: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Orkney and Shetland

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Orkney and Shetland.

Orkney and ShetlandActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
Orkney IslandsEast Mainland, South Ronaldsay and Burray2,449LIBLIB
Orkney IslandsKirkwall East3,586LIBLIB
Orkney IslandsKirkwall West and Orphir3,397LIBLIB
Orkney IslandsNorth Isles1,782LIBLIB
Orkney IslandsStromness and South Isles2,112LIBLIB
Orkney IslandsWest Mainland3,455LIBLIB
Shetland IslandsLerwick North and Bressay2,279LIBLIB
Shetland IslandsLerwick South3,157LIBLIB
Shetland IslandsNorth Isles2,105LIBLIB
Shetland IslandsShetland Central3,029LIBLIB
Shetland IslandsShetland North2,412LIBLIB
Shetland IslandsShetland South3,098SNPLIB
Shetland IslandsShetland West1,351LIBLIB
 Total34,212LIBLIB

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2023.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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