| MP at 2019: | Alistair Carmichael (LIB) |
| County/Area: | Orkney and Shetland (Scotland) |
| Electorate: | 34,211 |
| Turnout: | 67.7% |
| Party | 2019 Votes | 2019 Share | Pred Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| LIB | 10,381 | 44.8% | 35.9% |
| SNP | 7,874 | 34.0% | 39.3% |
| CON | 2,287 | 9.9% | 9.0% |
| LAB | 1,550 | 6.7% | 8.0% |
| Reform | 900 | 3.9% | 2.1% |
| OTH | 168 | 0.7% | 4.7% |
| Green | 0 | 0.0% | 1.0% |
| LIB Majority | 2,507 | 10.8% | 3.5% Pred Maj |
| Chance of winning | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| LIB |
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| SNP |
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| CON |
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| Reform |
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| OTH |
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The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Orkney and Shetland constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.
The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).
The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.
| Indicator | Seat | Scotland | All GB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Party Winner 2019 | LIB | SNP | CON |
| Party Winner 2017 | LIB | SNP | CON |
| Party Winner 2015 | LIB | SNP | CON |
| Economic Position | 16° Left | 23° Left | 0° |
| National Position | 10° Glo | 15° Glo | 0° |
| Social Position | 12° Lib | 13° Lib | 0° |
| Tribe | Progressives | ||
| EU Leave % | 40% | 38% | 52% |
| British Identity | 26% | 27% | 29% |
| Good Health | 54% | 52% | 48% |
| UK Born | 96% | 93% | 87% |
| Good Education | 35% | 36% | 39% |
| Good Job | 40% | 49% | 51% |
| High SEC | 55% | 55% | 51% |
| Average Age | 50.4 | 48.6 | 48.3 |
| ABC1 Class | 42% | 50% | 54% |
| Average House Price | £157,579 | £174,688 | £309,875 |
Orkney and Shetland ranks #543 for "Leave", #575 for "Right", #524 for "National" and #586 for "Social" out of 650 seats.
The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.
| Topic | Cat 1 | Cat 2 | Cat 3 | Cat 4 | Cat 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Position | Very Left | Left | Centrist | Right | Very Right |
| National Position | Very Global | Global | Centrist | National | Very Nat |
| Social Position | Very Lib | Liberal | Moderate | Conservative | Very Cons |
| EU Leave % | Very Remain | Remain | Balanced | Leave | Very Leave |
| Census | Very Low | Low | Medium | High | Very High |
Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:
| Indicator | Census Question | Definition / Included Census Categories |
|---|---|---|
| Party Winner | – | Area party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus |
| Economic Position | – | Economic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data. |
| National Position | – | National position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data. |
| Social Position | – | Social position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data. |
| Tribe | – | Tribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details. |
| EU Leave % | – | EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate |
| British Identity | National Identity (KS202) | Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British |
| Good Health | Health (KS301) | Those answering 'Very Good Health' |
| UK Born | Country of Birth (QS203) | Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other |
| Good Education | Highest level of Qualification (QS501) | Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent) |
| Good Job | Occupation (QS606) | Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers) |
| High SEC | NS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609) | National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed). |
| Average Age | Age (QS103) | Average age of adults (18 years and above) |
| ABC1 Class | Approximated Social Grade (QS611) | Approximated social grades A, B and C1 |
| Average House Price | – | Average residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance |
This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Orkney and Shetland.
| Orkney and Shetland | Actual | Predicted Results | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Ward | Electorate 2019 | GE19 Winner | Pred Winner | CON Votes | LAB Votes | LIB Votes | Reform Votes | Green Votes | SNP Votes | MIN Votes | OTH Votes | Total Votes |
| Orkney Islands | East Mainland, South Ronaldsay and Burray | 2,654 | LIB | SNP | 197 | 123 | 640 | 41 | 19 | 692 | 0 | 85 | 1,797 |
| Orkney Islands | Kirkwall East | 3,373 | LIB | LIB | 168 | 228 | 857 | 49 | 23 | 856 | 0 | 101 | 2,282 |
| Orkney Islands | Kirkwall West and Orphir | 3,522 | LIB | SNP | 205 | 203 | 883 | 50 | 24 | 912 | 0 | 108 | 2,385 |
| Orkney Islands | North Isles | 1,779 | LIB | LIB | 126 | 97 | 449 | 29 | 13 | 437 | 0 | 56 | 1,207 |
| Orkney Islands | Stromness and South Isles | 2,108 | LIB | LIB | 126 | 140 | 538 | 31 | 14 | 512 | 0 | 65 | 1,426 |
| Orkney Islands | West Mainland | 3,449 | LIB | SNP | 274 | 153 | 841 | 54 | 24 | 879 | 0 | 111 | 2,336 |
| Shetland Islands | Lerwick North | 2,275 | LIB | SNP | 88 | 169 | 549 | 28 | 15 | 622 | 0 | 71 | 1,542 |
| Shetland Islands | Lerwick South | 3,357 | LIB | SNP | 173 | 192 | 847 | 42 | 22 | 898 | 0 | 99 | 2,273 |
| Shetland Islands | North Isles | 2,101 | LIB | SNP | 144 | 101 | 494 | 33 | 15 | 552 | 0 | 85 | 1,424 |
| Shetland Islands | Shetland Central | 2,369 | LIB | SNP | 126 | 129 | 588 | 34 | 16 | 635 | 0 | 75 | 1,603 |
| Shetland Islands | Shetland North | 2,408 | LIB | SNP | 163 | 124 | 570 | 34 | 16 | 645 | 0 | 78 | 1,630 |
| Shetland Islands | Shetland South | 2,793 | SNP | SNP | 145 | 115 | 564 | 32 | 18 | 931 | 0 | 85 | 1,890 |
| Shetland Islands | Shetland West | 2,022 | LIB | SNP | 151 | 86 | 482 | 27 | 14 | 538 | 0 | 71 | 1,369 |
| Total | 34,210 | LIB | SNP | 2,086 | 1,860 | 8,302 | 484 | 233 | 9,109 | 0 | 1,090 | 23,164 | |
Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2021.
© 2021 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (28-Jun-2021 11:26, Py3L, sc1635)
