Seat Details

Predicted winner: LIB
Acual winner: LIB

MP at 2019: Alistair Carmichael (LIB)
County/Area: Orkney and Shetland (Scotland)
Electorate: 34,211
Turnout: 67.7%

	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	10,381	44.8%	51.2%
SNP	7,874	34.0%	33.5%
CON	2,287	9.9%	8.6%
LAB	1,550	6.7%	6.4%
Brexit	900	3.9%	0.3%
OTH	168	0.7%	0.0%
LIB Majority	2,507	10.8%	Pred Maj 17.7%

Chance of
winning

LIB

80%

SNP

20%

CON

LAB

Brexit

OTH

Orkney and Shetland : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Orkney and Shetland constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator	Seat	Scotland	All GB
Party Winner 2019	LIB	SNP	CON
Party Winner 2017	LIB	SNP	CON
Party Winner 2015	LIB	SNP	CON
Economic Position	16° Left	23° Left	0°
National Position	10° Glo	15° Glo	0°
Social Position	12° Lib	13° Lib	0°
Tribe	Progressives
EU Leave %	40%	38%	52%
British Identity	26%	27%	29%
Good Health	54%	52%	48%
UK Born	96%	93%	88%
Good Education	35%	36%	39%
Good Job	40%	49%	51%
High SEC	55%	55%	51%
Average Age	50.4	48.7	48.5
ABC1 Class	42%	50%	54%

Orkney and Shetland ranks #543 for "Leave", #575 for "Right", #524 for "National" and #586 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

Topic	Cat 1	Cat 2	Cat 3	Cat 4	Cat 5
Economic Position	Very Left	Left	Centrist	Right	Very Right
National Position	Very Global	Global	Centrist	National	Very Nat
Social Position	Very Lib	Liberal	Moderate	Conservative	Very Cons
EU Leave %	Very Remain	Remain	Balanced	Leave	Very Leave
Census	Very Low	Low	Medium	High	Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

Indicator	Census Question	Definition / Included Census Categories
Party Winner	–	Area party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic Position	–	Economic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National Position	–	National position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social Position	–	Social position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Tribe	–	Tribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %	–	EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British Identity	National Identity (KS202)	Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good Health	Health (KS301)	Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK Born	Country of Birth (QS203)	Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good Education	Highest level of Qualification (QS501)	Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good Job	Occupation (QS606)	Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SEC	NS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)	National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average Age	Age (QS103)	Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 Class	Approximated Social Grade (QS611)	Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Orkney and Shetland: Map

Orkney and Shetland: Ward-by-ward

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Orkney and Shetland at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Orkney and Shetland. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Orkney and Shetland			Actual Results
District	Ward	Election Year	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	SNP Votes	OTH Votes
Orkney Islands	East Mainland, South Ronaldsay and Burray	2012	0	0	0	0	0	47	1,338
Orkney Islands	Kirkwall East	2012	0	0	0	0	0	93	1,453
Orkney Islands	Kirkwall West and Orphir	2012	0	0	0	0	0	50	1,480
Orkney Islands	North Isles	2012	0	0	0	0	0	0	1,055
Orkney Islands	Stromness and South Isles	2012	0	0	0	11	0	61	1,000
Orkney Islands	West Mainland	2012	0	0	0	0	0	0	1,835
Shetland Islands	Lerwick North	2012	0	0	0	0	0	65	1,147
Shetland Islands	Lerwick South	2012	0	0	0	0	0	119	1,655
Shetland Islands	North Isles	2012	0	0	0	0	0	0	1,379
Shetland Islands	Shetland Central	2012	0	0	0	0	0	0	1,028
Shetland Islands	Shetland North	2012	0	0	0	0	0	0	1,433
Shetland Islands	Shetland South	2012	0	0	0	0	0	0	1,508
Shetland Islands	Shetland West	2012	0	0	0	0	0	0	1,292

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Orkney and Shetland			Est. 2019 General Election Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2019	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	Brexit Votes	Green Votes	SNP Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Orkney Islands	East Mainland, South Ronaldsay and Burray	2,510	201	101	747	63	0	575	0	13	1,700
Orkney Islands	Kirkwall East	3,428	175	189	1,054	99	0	786	0	17	2,320
Orkney Islands	Kirkwall West and Orphir	3,245	197	160	1,000	89	0	733	0	16	2,195
Orkney Islands	North Isles	1,756	133	76	534	45	0	392	0	8	1,188
Orkney Islands	Stromness and South Isles	2,187	127	115	655	66	0	501	0	16	1,480
Orkney Islands	West Mainland	3,279	278	126	986	79	0	735	0	15	2,219
Shetland Islands	Lerwick North	2,492	114	133	747	73	0	607	0	14	1,688
Shetland Islands	Lerwick South	3,600	198	170	1,107	96	0	849	0	17	2,437
Shetland Islands	North Isles	2,155	173	94	646	56	0	479	0	11	1,459
Shetland Islands	Shetland Central	2,271	140	100	695	58	0	534	0	10	1,537
Shetland Islands	Shetland North	2,530	185	105	759	63	0	590	0	11	1,713
Shetland Islands	Shetland South	2,683	187	106	826	65	0	622	0	11	1,817
Shetland Islands	Shetland West	2,074	179	74	623	48	0	471	0	9	1,404
	Total	34,210	2,287	1,549	10,379	900	0	7,874	0	168	23,157

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Orkney and Shetland

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Orkney and Shetland.

Orkney and Shetland			Predicted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2019	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	Brexit Votes	Green Votes	SNP Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Orkney Islands	East Mainland, South Ronaldsay and Burray	2,510	174	96	857	6	0	567	0	0	1,700
Orkney Islands	Kirkwall East	3,428	152	180	1,204	9	0	775	0	0	2,320
Orkney Islands	Kirkwall West and Orphir	3,245	171	153	1,141	8	0	722	0	0	2,195
Orkney Islands	North Isles	1,756	115	73	610	4	0	386	0	0	1,188
Orkney Islands	Stromness and South Isles	2,187	110	110	760	6	0	494	0	0	1,480
Orkney Islands	West Mainland	3,279	241	120	1,126	7	0	724	0	0	2,218
Shetland Islands	Lerwick North	2,492	99	127	857	6	0	599	0	0	1,688
Shetland Islands	Lerwick South	3,600	172	162	1,257	8	0	837	0	0	2,436
Shetland Islands	North Isles	2,155	150	90	742	5	0	472	0	0	1,459
Shetland Islands	Shetland Central	2,271	121	96	788	5	0	527	0	0	1,537
Shetland Islands	Shetland North	2,530	160	100	865	6	0	582	0	0	1,713
Shetland Islands	Shetland South	2,683	162	101	935	6	0	613	0	0	1,817
Shetland Islands	Shetland West	2,074	155	71	710	4	0	464	0	0	1,404
	Total	34,210	1,982	1,479	11,852	80	0	7,762	0	0	23,155

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Orkney and Shetland: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details