Orkney and Shetland: Seat Details

Orkney and Shetland: Overview

Prediction: SNP gain from LIB

MP at 2019:Alistair Carmichael  (LIB)
County/Area:Orkney and Shetland (Scotland)
Electorate:34,211
Turnout:67.7%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
LIB10,38144.8%34.7%
SNP7,87434.0%43.9%
CON2,2879.9%7.3%
LAB1,5506.7%10.2%
Brexit9003.9%0.0%
OTH1680.7%1.2%
Green00.0%2.7%
LIB Majority2,50710.8%9.3%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
LIB
30%
SNP
69%
CON
0%
LAB
1%
Brexit
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%

Orkney and Shetland : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Orkney and Shetland constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat ScotlandAll GB
Party Winner 2019LIBSNPCON
Party Winner 2017LIBSNPCON
Party Winner 2015LIBSNPCON
Economic Position16° Left23° Left
National Position10° Glo15° Glo
Social Position12° Lib13° Lib
TribeProgressives
EU Leave %40%38%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health54%52%48%
UK Born96%93%87%
Good Education35%36%39%
Good Job40%49%51%
High SEC55%55%51%
Average Age50.448.648.3
ABC1 Class42%50%54%

Orkney and Shetland ranks #543 for "Leave", #575 for "Right", #524 for "National" and #586 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Orkney and Shetland: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Orkney and Shetland

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Orkney and Shetland.

Orkney and ShetlandActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Orkney IslandsEast Mainland, South Ronaldsay and Burray2,666LIBSNP1611666210517860211,806
Orkney IslandsKirkwall East3,359LIBSNP1342748290599550212,272
Orkney IslandsKirkwall West and Orphir3,437LIBSNP1662498320629940232,326
Orkney IslandsNorth Isles1,784LIBSNP1031244350344980121,206
Orkney IslandsStromness and South Isles2,110LIBSNP1021725230395790151,430
Orkney IslandsWest Mainland3,492LIBSNP2262118220681,0100262,363
Shetland IslandsLerwick North2,264LIBSNP711985280376810171,532
Shetland IslandsLerwick South3,379LIBSNP1382478250581,0000212,289
Shetland IslandsNorth Isles2,139LIBSNP1191354860406320351,447
Shetland IslandsShetland Central2,324LIBSNP1011615620426900181,574
Shetland IslandsShetland North2,466LIBSNP1351645640457400211,669
Shetland IslandsShetland South2,795SNPSNP1211515420481,0110201,893
Shetland IslandsShetland West1,996LIBSNP1191164590375980231,352
 Total34,211LIBSNP1,6962,3688,028062010,174027323,159

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


© 2021 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (31-Dec-2020 17:12, Py3L, sc2370)