Penrith and The Border: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Penrith and The Border: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Neil Hudson  (CON)
County/Area: Cumbria (North West)
Electorate: 67,555
Turnout: 70.8%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON28,87560.4%59.0%
LAB10,35621.7%25.8%
LIB5,36411.2%5.8%
Green2,1594.5%5.3%
OTH1,0702.2%4.2%
CON Majority18,51938.7%Pred Maj 33.2%
Chance of
winning
CON
97%
LAB
3%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Penrith and The Border : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Penrith and The Border constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat North WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position13° Right4° Left
National Position10° Nat1° Nat
Social Position7° Con2° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %55%54%52%
British Identity31%28%29%
Good Health46%47%48%
UK Born97%92%87%
Good Education39%37%39%
Good Job43%49%51%
High SEC48%48%51%
Average Age52.748.548.3
ABC1 Class46%50%54%

Penrith and The Border ranks #282 for "Leave", #99 for "Right", #148 for "National" and #86 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Penrith and The Border: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Penrith and The Border

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Penrith and The Border.

Penrith and The BorderActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AllerdaleWarnell1,609CONCON715273630390481,138
AllerdaleWigton and Woodside4,710CONCON1,5071,422127013201473,335
CarlisleBelah and Kingmoor1,104CONCON42024234055030781
CarlisleBrampton and Fellside6,584CONCON2,8741,085173034601824,660
CarlisleLongtown and the Border5,981CONCON2,929819114025601164,234
CarlisleStanwix and Houghton2,158CONCON870453690990381,529
CarlisleWetheral and Corby2,078CONCON971282660950591,473
EdenAlston Moor1,701CONCON557510440460461,203
EdenAppleby (Appleby)1,005CONCON43318730025037712
EdenAppleby (Bongate)1,568CONCON5972871360440461,110
EdenAskham1,078CONCON45616968030039762
EdenBrough1,137CONCON47918276030038805
EdenCrosby Ravensworth1,235CONCON57716765032033874
EdenDacre1,220CONCON500190103035034862
EdenEamont1,327CONCON59420064034046938
EdenGreystoke1,206CONCON62814430031021854
EdenHartside1,152CONCON60513529029018816
EdenHesket2,548CONCON1,2053325501280841,804
EdenKirkby Stephen2,086CONCON831422930510801,477
EdenKirkby Thore1,224CONCON46522082036064867
EdenKirkoswald1,188CONCON52621331033039842
EdenLangwathby1,287CONCON56319332079043910
EdenLazonby1,293CONCON61417432074020914
EdenLong Marton1,026CONCON54211923025016725
EdenMorland1,054CONCON45216258030046748
EdenOrton with Tebay1,177CONCON50619570033031835
EdenPenrith Carleton1,550CONCON6562634901020291,099
EdenPenrith East2,353CONCON7985791600630651,665
EdenPenrith North3,391CONCON1,201650231018901302,401
EdenPenrith Pategill1,017CONCON34723683024031721
EdenPenrith South1,967CONCON7854026004401011,392
EdenPenrith West2,208CONCON6726321400620581,564
EdenRavenstonedale817CONCON35412048023032577
EdenShap1,096CONCON45619262030037777
EdenSkelton1,228CONCON57316468033031869
EdenUllswater1,080CONCON46915567030043764
EdenWarcop1,111CONCON48816529068035785
 Total67,554CONCON28,21512,3352,76402,51501,99347,822

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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