Penrith and The Border: Seat Details

Penrith and The Border: Overview

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:Neil Hudson  (CON)
County/Area:Cumbria (North West)
Electorate:67,555
Turnout:70.8%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON28,87560.4%53.4%
LAB10,35621.7%24.1%
LIB5,36411.2%7.5%
Green2,1594.5%9.9%
OTH1,0702.2%4.5%
Reform00.0%0.5%
CON Majority18,51938.7%29.3%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
CON
96%
LAB
4%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
Reform
0%

Penrith and The Border : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Penrith and The Border constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat North WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position13° Right4° Left
National Position10° Nat1° Nat
Social Position7° Con2° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %55%54%52%
British Identity31%28%29%
Good Health46%47%48%
UK Born97%92%87%
Good Education39%37%39%
Good Job43%49%51%
High SEC48%48%51%
Average Age52.748.548.3
ABC1 Class46%50%54%
Average House Price£229,880£202,780£309,875

Penrith and The Border ranks #282 for "Leave", #99 for "Right", #148 for "National" and #86 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Penrith and The Border: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Penrith and The Border

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Penrith and The Border.

Penrith and The BorderActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AllerdaleWarnell1,609CONCON652255836910521,139
AllerdaleWigton and Woodside4,710CONLAB1,3241,3901651627201683,335
CarlisleBelah and Kingmoor1,104CONCON37723543488034781
CarlisleBrampton and Fellside6,584CONCON2,6121,0502262254002114,661
CarlisleLongtown and the Border5,981CONCON2,6918021491942201524,235
CarlisleStanwix and Houghton2,158CONCON7844369081650451,528
CarlisleWetheral and Corby2,078CONCON8892658671590661,472
EdenAlston Moor1,701CONLAB491499586970531,204
EdenAppleby (Appleby)1,005CONCON39318039356041712
EdenAppleby (Bongate)1,568CONCON53524717181060431,110
EdenAskham1,078CONCON41314689572039764
EdenBrough1,137CONCON43415799574037806
EdenCrosby Ravensworth1,235CONCON52714685577034874
EdenDacre1,220CONCON452159129684033863
EdenEamont1,327CONCON54318183580047939
EdenGreystoke1,206CONCON58013839466027854
EdenHartside1,152CONCON55913037463023816
EdenHesket2,548CONCON1,1063247282000951,805
EdenKirkby Stephen2,086CONCON74839512181210831,476
EdenKirkby Thore1,224CONCON418191107683061866
EdenKirkoswald1,188CONCON47920540468044840
EdenLangwathby1,287CONCON512187424117049911
EdenLazonby1,293CONCON563168424111026914
EdenLong Marton1,026CONCON50211530354021725
EdenMorland1,054CONCON41014375568045746
EdenOrton with Tebay1,177CONCON45917091576031832
EdenPenrith Carleton1,550CONCON5952506351490341,096
EdenPenrith East2,353CONCON705523209111540621,664
EdenPenrith North3,391CONCON1,0675703011631901262,399
EdenPenrith Pategill1,017CONCON307209105564029719
EdenPenrith South1,967CONCON70838579710401091,392
EdenPenrith West2,208CONCON586583181101450571,562
EdenRavenstonedale817CONCON32210463453032578
EdenShap1,096CONCON41317181570037777
EdenSkelton1,228CONCON52514189577032869
EdenUllswater1,080CONCON42613188571044765
EdenWarcop1,111CONCON444159394101040787
 Total67,554CONCON25,55111,5403,5892574,71702,16247,816

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2021.


© 2021 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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