Preseli Pembrokeshire: Seat Details

Preseli Pembrokeshire: Overview

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:Stephen Crabb  (CON)
County/Area:Dyfed (Wales)
Electorate:59,606
Turnout:71.2%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON21,38150.4%44.0%
LAB16,31938.5%40.3%
Plaid2,7766.5%6.5%
LIB1,9434.6%3.1%
Reform00.0%0.4%
Green00.0%4.0%
OTH00.0%1.7%
CON Majority5,06211.9%3.7%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
CON
60%
LAB
40%
Plaid
0%
LIB
0%
Reform
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Preseli Pembrokeshire : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Preseli Pembrokeshire constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position3° Left8° Left
National Position6° Nat
Social Position2° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %56%53%52%
British Identity27%26%29%
Good Health46%47%48%
UK Born96%94%87%
Good Education37%37%39%
Good Job42%46%51%
High SEC44%46%51%
Average Age51.949.548.3
ABC1 Class42%48%54%
Average House Price£203,658£194,381£309,875

Preseli Pembrokeshire ranks #254 for "Leave", #389 for "Right", #258 for "National" and #374 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Preseli Pembrokeshire: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Preseli Pembrokeshire

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Preseli Pembrokeshire.

Preseli PembrokeshireActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
PembrokeshireBurton1,504CONCON67928917439280171,073
PembrokeshireCamrose2,191CONCON739517536631550271,560
PembrokeshireCilgerran1,595CONCON54943332444540191,135
PembrokeshireClydau1,190CONCON36826625333137014846
PembrokeshireCrymych2,100CONCON636474466592480251,494
PembrokeshireDinas Cross1,314CONCON36928777548127021934
PembrokeshireFishguard North East1,496LABLAB40252735442370181,065
PembrokeshireFishguard North West1,209CONCON32832034436125015862
PembrokeshireGoodwick1,510LABLAB36950783554340231,075
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Castle1,675LABLAB33669234546590201,192
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Garth1,661CONLAB50553838547290201,182
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Portfield1,766CONLAB50056249552670221,257
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Prendergast1,629LABLAB35263536546660201,160
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Priory1,908CONCON77841542553410231,357
PembrokeshireJohnston2,045CONCON67657940656740241,455
PembrokeshireLetterston1,874CONCON574455425531820231,334
PembrokeshireLlangwm1,815CONCON63648540551540221,293
PembrokeshireLlanrhian1,233CONCON4133142733570015877
PembrokeshireMaenclochog2,463CONCON766575527692540291,752
PembrokeshireMartletwy469CONCON2128361121505334
PembrokeshireMerlin's Bridge1,620CONCON51248434545540191,153
PembrokeshireMilford: Central1,579CONLAB47249934444500191,122
PembrokeshireMilford: East1,572LABLAB29469422441460181,119
PembrokeshireMilford: Hakin1,775LABLAB46663038550530211,263
PembrokeshireMilford: Hubberston2,005LABLAB52671138555670231,425
PembrokeshireMilford: North2,048CONCON80549932554370231,455
PembrokeshireMilford: West1,524LABLAB366502354431170181,085
PembrokeshireNewport878CONCON2932372332533011625
PembrokeshireNeyland: East1,794CONCON56749744551910221,277
PembrokeshireNeyland: West1,591LABLAB36465722442260181,133
PembrokeshireRudbaxton945CONCON4191811432521011674
PembrokeshireScleddau1,159CONCON4432702333241014826
PembrokeshireSolva1,275CONCON4133682333451015907
PembrokeshireSt David's1,522LABLAB37054642445570191,083
PembrokeshireSt Dogmaels1,776CONCON59749434549660211,266
PembrokeshireSt Ishmael's1,125CONCON4023032033029013800
PembrokeshireThe Havens1,197CONCON4682742933429015852
PembrokeshireWiston1,582CONCON69229819441550171,126
 Total59,614CONCON18,65617,0971,3341651,6782,779071942,428

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2021.


© 2021 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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