Preseli Pembrokeshire: Seat Details

Preseli Pembrokeshire: Overview

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:Stephen Crabb  (CON)
County/Area:Dyfed (Wales)
Electorate:59,606
Turnout:71.2%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON21,38150.4%25.6%
LAB16,31938.5%44.6%
Plaid2,7766.5%12.9%
LIB1,9434.6%3.0%
Reform00.0%10.7%
Green00.0%3.2%
CON Majority5,06211.9%19.0%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
CON
9%
LAB
90%
Plaid
0%
LIB
0%
Reform
0%
Green
0%

Preseli Pembrokeshire : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Preseli Pembrokeshire constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position3° Left8° Left
National Position6° Nat
Social Position2° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %56%53%52%
Average Age53.751.149.5
Good Education49%49%49%
Employed53%53%58%
Homeowner69%67%63%
Car owner86%81%77%
Married47%44%45%
Ethnic White98%94%83%
Christian51%47%50%
ABC1 Class46%52%56%
Gross Household Income£36,105£36,386£42,397
Deprivation53%54%52%
Average House Price£203,658£193,404£313,528

Preseli Pembrokeshire ranks #254 for "Leave", #389 for "Economic Right Position", #258 for "National Position" and #374 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Preseli Pembrokeshire: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Preseli Pembrokeshire

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Preseli Pembrokeshire.

Preseli PembrokeshireActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
PembrokeshireBoncath and Clydau1,631CONLAB3184702611426196001,150
PembrokeshireBro Gwaun1,440CONLAB247439341022411800964
PembrokeshireBurton1,505CONCON388359371213492001,031
PembrokeshireCamrose1,505CONLAB3243913812237149001,061
PembrokeshireCilgerran and Eglwyswrw1,798CONLAB3155423012329220001,259
PembrokeshireCrymych and Mynachlog-ddu1,904CONLAB3445443013030248001,326
PembrokeshireFishguard North East1,506LABLAB23957026962580001,036
PembrokeshireFishguard North West1,208CONLAB17039421801812600809
PembrokeshireGoodwick1,498LABLAB1945573696248500992
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest Castle1,654LABLAB1616072510140160001,094
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest Garth1,652CONLAB2045192511339128001,028
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest Portfield1,774CONLAB2835333312844168001,189
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest Prendergast1,614LABLAB2155613110739156001,109
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest Priory1,886CONLAB4164763914545151001,272
PembrokeshireJohnston1,564CONLAB2664633612739109001,040
PembrokeshireLetterston1,874CONLAB3494874114448218001,287
PembrokeshireLlangwm1,815CONLAB3755234914549122001,263
PembrokeshireLlanrhian1,597CONLAB3344973111426116001,118
PembrokeshireMaenclochog1,728CONLAB3255282812130207001,239
PembrokeshireMartletwy445CONCON122961137103300309
PembrokeshireMerlin's Bridge1,602CONLAB2514812812138150001,069
PembrokeshireMilford Central1,578CONLAB2534562811635170001,058
PembrokeshireMilford East1,959LABLAB1887522912549163001,306
PembrokeshireMilford Hakin1,952LABLAB2706333514146184001,309
PembrokeshireMilford Hubberston1,788LABLAB2096022912842158001,168
PembrokeshireMilford North1,672CONLAB3544202512737132001,095
PembrokeshireMilford West1,536LABLAB1874402210432238001,023
PembrokeshireNewport and Dinas1,579CONLAB3234935112331124001,145
PembrokeshireNeyland East1,801CONLAB2765374214241147001,185
PembrokeshireNeyland West1,597LABLAB185604341144095001,072
PembrokeshireRudbaxton and Spittal1,314CONCON34930429105318100899
PembrokeshireSolva1,289CONLAB22639131993510800890
PembrokeshireSt David's1,541LABLAB2455204711943132001,106
PembrokeshireSt Dogmaels1,811CONLAB3716053312831119001,287
PembrokeshireSt Ishmael's1,868CONLAB3875224615245130001,282
PembrokeshireThe Havens1,574CONLAB3564174712840110001,098
PembrokeshireWiston1,547CONCON3753643512538131001,068
 Total59,606CONLAB10,39418,0971,2184,3631,3105,2540040,636

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2023.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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