Preseli Pembrokeshire: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Preseli Pembrokeshire: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Stephen Crabb  (CON)
County/Area: Dyfed (Wales)
Electorate: 59,586
Turnout: 71.2%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON21,38150.4%49.1%
LAB16,31938.5%40.5%
Plaid2,7766.5%6.5%
LIB1,9434.6%2.5%
Green00.0%0.4%
OTH00.0%1.0%
CON Majority5,06211.9%Pred Maj 8.6%
Chance of
winning
CON
70%
LAB
30%
Plaid
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Preseli Pembrokeshire : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Preseli Pembrokeshire constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position3° Left8° Left
National Position6° Nat
Social Position2° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %56%53%52%
British Identity27%26%29%
Good Health46%47%48%
UK Born96%94%87%
Good Education37%37%39%
Good Job42%46%51%
High SEC44%46%51%
Average Age51.949.548.3
ABC1 Class42%48%54%

Preseli Pembrokeshire ranks #254 for "Leave", #389 for "Right", #258 for "National" and #374 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Preseli Pembrokeshire: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Preseli Pembrokeshire

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Preseli Pembrokeshire.

Preseli PembrokeshireActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
PembrokeshireBurton1,484CONCON724283130327071,057
PembrokeshireCamrose2,193CONCON82052242061540161,560
PembrokeshireCilgerran1,555CONCON5914252504520101,107
PembrokeshireClydau1,213CONCON420273190314008863
PembrokeshireCrymych2,127CONCON72348437062500141,514
PembrokeshireDinas Cross1,306CONCON4153026007127018929
PembrokeshireFishguard North East1,520LABLAB4645382804380111,083
PembrokeshireFishguard North West1,212CONCON3723262704124010863
PembrokeshireGoodwick1,492LABLAB4185196508330191,062
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Castle1,633LABLAB3866772704570111,162
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Garth1,622CONCON5525283004280111,153
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Portfield1,777CONLAB5685713805680141,264
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Prendergast1,619LABLAB4296232604600111,153
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Priory1,883CONCON8364133205410131,340
PembrokeshireJohnston2,048CONCON7535813105740131,457
PembrokeshireLetterston1,897CONCON65146433051840131,350
PembrokeshireLlangwm1,812CONCON7014873105540121,290
PembrokeshireLlanrhian1,244CONCON46331922037009886
PembrokeshireMaenclochog2,470CONCON86058042062530161,757
PembrokeshireMartletwy465CONCON227815011502331
PembrokeshireMerlin's Bridge1,597CONCON5634792604540101,136
PembrokeshireMilford: Central1,546CONCON5184922604490101,099
PembrokeshireMilford: East1,584LABLAB355698170347081,128
PembrokeshireMilford: Hakin1,789LABLAB5356383005530121,273
PembrokeshireMilford: Hubberston2,011LABLAB6037143005670121,431
PembrokeshireMilford: North2,043CONCON8784982504370111,453
PembrokeshireMilford: West1,543LABLAB42851028041180111,099
PembrokeshireNewport880CONCON32524018033307626
PembrokeshireNeyland: East1,828CONCON6445113605910131,300
PembrokeshireNeyland: West1,601LABLAB425661170326081,140
PembrokeshireRudbaxton918CONCON43917611022105654
PembrokeshireScleddau1,159CONCON48527017034107823
PembrokeshireSolva1,274CONCON45736818035208906
PembrokeshireSt David's1,547LABLAB4325593405580121,100
PembrokeshireSt Dogmaels1,796CONCON6695002704670111,278
PembrokeshireSt Ishmael's1,112CONCON43829916032807791
PembrokeshireThe Havens1,197CONCON51227622032908850
PembrokeshireWiston1,607CONCON760301150356081,143
 Total59,604CONCON20,83917,1861,04601582,776040642,411

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


Go back to home page.

© 2020 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (24-Jul-2020 19:51, Py3L, sc3099)