Preseli Pembrokeshire: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Preseli Pembrokeshire: Overview

 Predicted winner: CON 
 Acual winner: CON 

MP at 2019: Stephen Crabb  (CON)
County/Area: Dyfed (Wales)
Electorate: 59,586
Turnout: 71.2%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON21,38150.4%49.0%
LAB16,31938.5%36.9%
Plaid2,7766.5%8.5%
LIB1,9434.6%5.5%
CON Majority5,06211.9%Pred Maj 12.1%
Chance of
winning
CON
70%
LAB
30%
Plaid
0%
LIB
0%

Preseli Pembrokeshire : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Preseli Pembrokeshire constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position3° Left9° Left
National Position6° Nat
Social Position2° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %56%53%52%
British Identity27%26%29%
Good Health46%47%48%
UK Born96%95%88%
Good Education37%36%39%
Good Job42%46%51%
High SEC44%46%51%
Average Age51.949.648.5
ABC1 Class42%47%54%

Preseli Pembrokeshire ranks #254 for "Leave", #389 for "Right", #258 for "National" and #374 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Preseli Pembrokeshire: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Preseli Pembrokeshire: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Preseli Pembrokeshire

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Preseli Pembrokeshire at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Preseli Pembrokeshire. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Preseli PembrokeshireActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
OTH
Votes
PembrokeshireBurton2012000000-1
PembrokeshireCamrose2012000000-1
PembrokeshireCilgerran20120000051751
PembrokeshireClydau201200000-10
PembrokeshireCrymych201200000488707
PembrokeshireDinas Cross201200-10000
PembrokeshireFishguard North East201217600000609
PembrokeshireFishguard North West201210129382002849
PembrokeshireGoodwick2012148238119001690
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Castle201226355700000
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Garth20121121720000381
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Portfield201223200000685
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Prendergast2012000000-1
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Priory2012000000787
PembrokeshireJohnston2012000000713
PembrokeshireLetterston201233900000381
PembrokeshireLlangwm2012000000914
PembrokeshireLlanrhian2012000000-1
PembrokeshireMaenclochog201200000440672
PembrokeshireMartletwy201224200000533
PembrokeshireMerlin's Bridge201201930000386
PembrokeshireMilford: Central201200000421272
PembrokeshireMilford: East201221735300000
PembrokeshireMilford: Hakin201213600000478
PembrokeshireMilford: Hubberston201202730000292
PembrokeshireMilford: North201243900000414
PembrokeshireMilford: West201200000-10
PembrokeshireNewport201200370077437
PembrokeshireNeyland: East20120-100000
PembrokeshireNeyland: West201203450000336
PembrokeshireRudbaxton201215400000212
PembrokeshireScleddau2012255000090200
PembrokeshireSolva201201520000417
PembrokeshireSt David's20121261170000620
PembrokeshireSt Dogmaels20120000063746
PembrokeshireSt Ishmael's201218400000430
PembrokeshireThe Havens2012000000-1
PembrokeshireWiston2012-1000000

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Preseli PembrokeshireEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
PembrokeshireBurton1,430551353560058001,018
PembrokeshireCamrose1,941763460750083001,381
PembrokeshireCilgerran1,579602387540081001,124
PembrokeshireClydau1,11843025135008000796
PembrokeshireCrymych1,9507474426100139001,389
PembrokeshireDinas Cross1,31850231460006200938
PembrokeshireFishguard North East1,445536384490060001,029
PembrokeshireFishguard North West1,21037239543005200862
PembrokeshireGoodwick1,562509452600091001,112
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Castle1,827500679490073001,301
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Garth2,109648727530074001,502
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Portfield1,873696502610075001,334
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Prendergast1,565561439530062001,115
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Priory1,915690529680076001,363
PembrokeshireJohnston1,950744511590075001,389
PembrokeshireLetterston1,801762395570068001,282
PembrokeshireLlangwm1,813688457700076001,291
PembrokeshireLlanrhian1,13843528042005400811
PembrokeshireMaenclochog2,4239085698200165001,724
PembrokeshireMartletwy4311838916001900307
PembrokeshireMerlin's Bridge1,720561547490068001,225
PembrokeshireMilford: Central1,560543426440098001,111
PembrokeshireMilford: East1,670480608390062001,189
PembrokeshireMilford: Hakin1,743615508490069001,241
PembrokeshireMilford: Hubberston1,937567691480073001,379
PembrokeshireMilford: North2,148851539620077001,529
PembrokeshireMilford: West1,7545465474100115001,249
PembrokeshireNewport89431522441005700637
PembrokeshireNeyland: East1,687508581500062001,201
PembrokeshireNeyland: West1,708548555490064001,216
PembrokeshireRudbaxton72131214925002700513
PembrokeshireScleddau1,15045625536007200819
PembrokeshireSolva1,471516403530076001,048
PembrokeshireSt David's1,433514377550075001,021
PembrokeshireSt Dogmaels1,758651440620099001,252
PembrokeshireSt Ishmael's1,09743426340004500782
PembrokeshireThe Havens1,19044529749005600847
PembrokeshireWiston1,548689298550061001,103
 Total59,58721,37816,3231,950002,7790042,430

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Preseli Pembrokeshire

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Preseli Pembrokeshire.

Preseli PembrokeshirePredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
PembrokeshireBurton1,430537337650078001,017
PembrokeshireCamrose1,9417454398800110001,382
PembrokeshireCilgerran1,5795873706400103001,124
PembrokeshireClydau1,11841923942009600796
PembrokeshireCrymych1,9507284217400166001,389
PembrokeshireDinas Cross1,31848930069008000938
PembrokeshireFishguard North East1,445522368580080001,028
PembrokeshireFishguard North West1,21036038251006900862
PembrokeshireGoodwick1,5624944357000113001,112
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Castle1,827483659610098001,301
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Garth2,1096287046700103001,502
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Portfield1,8736784817300101001,333
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Prendergast1,565546422630084001,115
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Priory1,9156725088100103001,364
PembrokeshireJohnston1,9507254907200102001,389
PembrokeshireLetterston1,801745375690093001,282
PembrokeshireLlangwm1,8136714378200101001,291
PembrokeshireLlanrhian1,13842426849007000811
PembrokeshireMaenclochog2,4238855429800199001,724
PembrokeshireMartletwy4311798419002500307
PembrokeshireMerlin's Bridge1,720545528600092001,225
PembrokeshireMilford: Central1,5605284095400120001,111
PembrokeshireMilford: East1,670464590500085001,189
PembrokeshireMilford: Hakin1,743598489600093001,240
PembrokeshireMilford: Hubberston1,9375496706100100001,380
PembrokeshireMilford: North2,1488315157600107001,529
PembrokeshireMilford: West1,7545295285300139001,249
PembrokeshireNewport89430621447006900636
PembrokeshireNeyland: East1,687492563610085001,201
PembrokeshireNeyland: West1,708532536600088001,216
PembrokeshireRudbaxton72130514130003700513
PembrokeshireScleddau1,15044524244008800819
PembrokeshireSolva1,471502387630096001,048
PembrokeshireSt David's1,433500361640095001,020
PembrokeshireSt Dogmaels1,7586344217400123001,252
PembrokeshireSt Ishmael's1,09742425147006000782
PembrokeshireThe Havens1,19043428457007300848
PembrokeshireWiston1,548674281650083001,103
 Total59,58720,80915,6712,341003,6070042,428

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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