Ribble South: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Ribble South: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Katherine Fletcher  (CON)
County/Area: Lancashire (North West)
Electorate: 75,344
Turnout: 71.4%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON30,02855.8%54.5%
LAB18,82935.0%37.9%
LIB3,7206.9%3.6%
Green1,2072.2%2.8%
OTH00.0%1.3%
CON Majority11,19920.8%Pred Maj 16.6%
Chance of
winning
CON
83%
LAB
17%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Ribble South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Ribble South constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat North WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position7° Right4° Left
National Position9° Nat1° Nat
Social Position6° Con2° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %59%54%52%
British Identity27%28%29%
Good Health48%47%48%
UK Born96%92%87%
Good Education41%37%39%
Good Job54%49%51%
High SEC57%48%51%
Average Age50.448.548.3
ABC1 Class57%50%54%

Ribble South ranks #192 for "Leave", #225 for "Right", #175 for "National" and #132 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Ribble South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Ribble South

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Ribble South.

Ribble SouthActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ChorleyCroston, Mawdesley and Euxton South5,016CONCON2,0181,382720760333,581
ChorleyEccleston, Heskin and Charnock Richard3,674LABCON1,510984490560232,622
South RibbleBroad Oak3,513CONCON1,33382118801050602,507
South RibbleBroadfield3,639LABLAB9841,470590580262,597
South RibbleBuckshaw and Worden3,730CONCON1,648864620610272,662
South RibbleCharnock2,905CONCON989959530490222,072
South RibbleEarnshaw Bridge3,479CONCON1,1781,107930700342,482
South RibbleFarington East570CONCON2071651801006406
South RibbleHoole3,340CONCON1,584613870690322,385
South RibbleHowick and Priory5,587CONCON2,1271,271323016501013,987
South RibbleLeyland Central3,515CONLAB1,1321,1611070710382,509
South RibbleLongton and Hutton West4,633CONCON2,18880815301040543,307
South RibbleMiddleforth5,472CONLAB1,7431,89611601050463,906
South RibbleMoss Side3,090CONCON1,1847881130810392,205
South RibbleNew Longton and Hutton East3,634CONCON1,7715981080770392,593
South RibbleSeven Stars3,064LABLAB9151,175360430182,187
South RibbleSt Ambrose3,223LABLAB9071,215790690302,300
West LancashireHesketh-with-Becconsall3,207CONCON1,362771670610272,288
West LancashireNorth Meols3,545CONCON1,3961,013440560212,530
West LancashireRufford1,791CONCON850370210270111,279
West LancashireTarleton4,727CONCON2,258943710710323,375
 Total75,354CONCON29,28420,3741,91901,484071953,780

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


Go back to home page.

© 2020 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (13-Aug-2020 10:51, Py3L, sc1819)