Rutherglen and Hamilton West: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Rutherglen and Hamilton West: Overview

 Prediction: SNP hold 

MP at 2019: Margaret Ferrier  (SNP)
County/Area: Ayrshire and Lanark (Scotland)
Electorate: 80,918
Turnout: 66.5%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
SNP23,77544.2%49.2%
LAB18,54534.5%34.8%
CON8,05415.0%11.5%
LIB2,7915.2%2.9%
OTH6291.2%1.6%
SNP Majority5,2309.7%Pred Maj 14.5%
Chance of
winning
SNP
85%
LAB
15%
CON
0%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%

Rutherglen and Hamilton West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Rutherglen and Hamilton West constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat ScotlandAll GB
Party Winner 2019SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2017LABSNPCON
Party Winner 2015SNPSNPCON
Economic Position28° Left23° Left
National Position14° Glo15° Glo
Social Position10° Lib13° Lib
TribeTradition
EU Leave %37%38%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health51%52%48%
UK Born96%93%87%
Good Education30%36%39%
Good Job48%49%51%
High SEC53%55%51%
Average Age48.248.648.3
ABC1 Class47%50%54%

Rutherglen and Hamilton West ranks #576 for "Leave", #638 for "Right", #557 for "National" and #569 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Rutherglen and Hamilton West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Rutherglen and Hamilton West

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Rutherglen and Hamilton West.

Rutherglen and Hamilton WestActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
South LanarkshireBlantyre12,611SNPSNP7443,458118003,93001338,383
South LanarkshireCambuslang East12,039SNPSNP7882,912153003,91402368,003
South LanarkshireCambuslang West12,054SNPSNP1,0362,480325004,03801358,014
South LanarkshireHamilton North and East3,699SNPSNP39481852001,1560402,460
South LanarkshireHamilton South3,843SNPSNP35891151001,2070272,554
South LanarkshireHamilton West and Earnock13,391SNPSNP1,2203,044180004,31801398,901
South LanarkshireRutherglen Central and North11,681SNPSNP7322,744267003,9540697,766
South LanarkshireRutherglen South11,600SNPSNP9212,330403003,95401017,709
 Total80,918SNPSNP6,19318,6971,5490026,471088053,790

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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