Rutherglen and Hamilton West: Seat Details

Rutherglen and Hamilton West: Overview

Prediction: LAB gain from SNP

MP at 2019:Margaret Ferrier  (SNP)
County/Area:Ayrshire and Lanark (Scotland)
Electorate:80,918
Turnout:66.5%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
SNP23,77544.2%27.8%
LAB18,54534.5%55.6%
CON8,05415.0%6.4%
LIB2,7915.2%3.8%
OTH6291.2%4.3%
Reform00.0%1.5%
Green00.0%0.6%
SNP Majority5,2309.7%27.8%
Pred Maj

Result shown is the original general election result, before Margaret Ferrier was removed by a recall petition in August 2023. Michael Shanks (Labour) won the seat in a by-election on 5 October 2023.

Chance of winning
SNP
4%
LAB
96%
CON
0%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%
Reform
0%
Green
0%

Rutherglen and Hamilton West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Rutherglen and Hamilton West constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat ScotlandAll GB
Party Winner 2019SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2017LABSNPCON
Party Winner 2015SNPSNPCON
Economic Position28° Left23° Left
National Position14° Glo15° Glo
Social Position10° Lib13° Lib
TribeTradition
EU Leave %37%38%52%
Average Age48.248.649.5
Good Education30%36%49%
Employed64%64%58%
Homeowner65%62%63%
Car owner66%69%77%
Married45%45%45%
Ethnic White97%96%83%
Christian63%54%50%
ABC1 Class47%50%56%
Gross Household Income£30,810£31,060£42,397
Deprivation63%60%52%
Average House Price£142,732£174,274£313,528

Rutherglen and Hamilton West ranks #576 for "Leave", #638 for "Economic Right Position", #557 for "National Position" and #569 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Rutherglen and Hamilton West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Rutherglen and Hamilton West

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Rutherglen and Hamilton West.

Rutherglen and Hamilton WestActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
South LanarkshireBlantyre12,539SNPLAB4164,827242115422,30503148,261
South LanarkshireCambuslang East12,297SNPLAB4634,806264120502,20703498,259
South LanarkshireCambuslang West12,207SNPLAB5664,497357125492,23903688,201
South LanarkshireHamilton North and East3,540SNPLAB2111,18994371368901152,348
South LanarkshireHamilton South3,921SNPLAB2331,365104441674601322,640
South LanarkshireHamilton West and Earnock13,396SNPLAB6324,929321136532,51703988,986
South LanarkshireRutherglen Central and North11,489SNPLAB4184,246283105402,21602987,606
South LanarkshireRutherglen South11,529SNPLAB5434,198402119472,12103457,775
 Total80,918SNPLAB3,48230,0572,06780131015,04002,31954,076

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2023.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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