Rutland and Melton: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Rutland and Melton: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Alicia Kearns  (CON)
County/Area: Leicestershire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 82,711
Turnout: 70.5%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON36,50762.6%61.3%
LAB9,58316.4%20.7%
LIB7,97013.7%7.9%
Green2,8754.9%5.7%
OTH1,3752.4%4.3%
CON Majority26,92446.2%Pred Maj 40.6%
Chance of
winning
CON
100%
LAB
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Rutland and Melton : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Rutland and Melton constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat East MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position13° Right4° Right
National Position7° Nat7° Nat
Social Position4° Con4° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %54%59%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health49%45%48%
UK Born94%90%87%
Good Education42%37%39%
Good Job54%48%51%
High SEC58%47%51%
Average Age51.648.948.3
ABC1 Class58%50%54%

Rutland and Melton ranks #316 for "Leave", #97 for "Right", #202 for "National" and #221 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Rutland and Melton: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Rutland and Melton

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Rutland and Melton.

Rutland and MeltonActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HarboroughBillesdon and Tilton2,162CONCON1,0242451410630521,525
HarboroughGlen323CONCON1384519015011228
HarboroughNevill2,387CONCON1,0902661830670781,684
HarboroughThurnby and Houghton6,910CONCON2,5211,104839022001884,872
MeltonAsfordby2,775CONCON1,2334421040780991,956
MeltonBottesford3,056CONCON1,42939312908701162,154
MeltonCroxton Kerrial1,556CONCON732203510480621,096
MeltonFrisby-on-the-Wreake1,548CONCON812152560430281,091
MeltonGaddesby1,470CONCON790132420370371,038
MeltonLong Clawson and Stathern3,498CONCON1,677427137010401222,467
MeltonMelton Craven2,821CONCON1,06062811208201081,990
MeltonMelton Dorian4,116CONCON1,79463314902480792,903
MeltonMelton Egerton2,909CONCON87380611801960582,051
MeltonMelton Newport4,260CONCON1,85860917002690973,003
MeltonMelton Sysonby4,141CONCON1,700716157024801002,921
MeltonMelton Warwick2,740CONCON1,0695319501690671,931
MeltonOld Dalby1,625CONCON7601905401110301,145
MeltonSomerby1,540CONCON6941811180470461,086
MeltonWaltham-on-the-Wolds1,362CONCON61818255041064960
MeltonWymondham1,334CONCON72112634035024940
RutlandBarleythorpe1,602CONCON634288790590701,130
RutlandBraunston and Martinsthorpe2,076CONCON9462301640610611,462
RutlandCottesmore2,021CONCON9192381500520651,424
RutlandExton1,194CONCON63711337031022840
RutlandGreetham1,156CONCON60412241031017815
RutlandKetton2,299CONCON1,0762681350610801,620
RutlandLangham1,195CONCON55913981033030842
RutlandLyddington1,174CONCON53314648035066828
RutlandNormanton2,366CONCON1,0112832280630841,669
RutlandOakham North East2,199CONCON8383599401740841,549
RutlandOakham North West2,537CONCON1,07843011007001001,788
RutlandOakham South3,729CONCON1,535494356010901352,629
RutlandRyhall and Casterton2,372CONCON1,0893191020730911,674
RutlandUppingham3,116CONCON1,260470129022701112,197
RutlandWhissendine1,136CONCON46116391034051800
 Total82,705CONCON35,77312,0734,60803,32102,53358,308

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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