Skipton and Ripon: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Skipton and Ripon: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Julian Smith  (CON)
County/Area: North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate: 78,673
Turnout: 74.6%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON34,91959.5%58.2%
LAB11,22519.1%24.0%
LIB8,70114.8%8.0%
Green2,7484.7%5.6%
OTH1,1311.9%4.2%
CON Majority23,69440.3%Pred Maj 34.2%
Chance of
winning
CON
98%
LAB
2%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Skipton and Ripon : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Skipton and Ripon constituency, the 'Yorks/Humber' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Yorks/HumberAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position11° Right3° Left
National Position7° Nat4° Nat
Social Position4° Con3° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %53%58%52%
British Identity29%28%29%
Good Health49%46%48%
UK Born94%91%87%
Good Education44%36%39%
Good Job53%47%51%
High SEC57%46%51%
Average Age52.748.348.3
ABC1 Class56%49%54%

Skipton and Ripon ranks #325 for "Leave", #129 for "Right", #223 for "National" and #222 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Skipton and Ripon: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Skipton and Ripon

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Skipton and Ripon.

Skipton and RiponActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CravenAire Valley with Lothersdale2,982CONCON1,28751513202330592,226
CravenBarden Fell1,298CONCON617135500109059970
CravenBentham2,916CONCON1,051609315010101002,176
CravenCowling1,854CONCON710470790620631,384
CravenEmbsay-with-Eastby1,567CONCON717251800560651,169
CravenGargrave and Malhamdale2,609CONCON1,242486990740471,948
CravenGlusburn3,204CONCON1,397599150011201332,391
CravenGrassington1,292CONCON63621354038025966
CravenHellifield and Long Preston1,813CONCON886320640500331,353
CravenIngleton and Clapham3,154CONCON1,388505119023901032,354
CravenPenyghent1,522CONCON695295580470401,135
CravenSettle and Ribblebanks3,164CONCON1,2288401390910632,361
CravenSkipton East2,933CONCON1,1255663170970842,189
CravenSkipton North2,971CONCON1,16157215802610662,218
CravenSkipton South2,620CONCON82272811402040861,954
CravenSkipton West3,007CONLAB9281,0181400940632,243
CravenSutton-in-Craven2,912CONCON1,18762714509901152,173
CravenUpper Wharfedale1,581CONCON768250570410631,179
CravenWest Craven1,595CONCON715289710550611,191
HarrogateBishop Monkton and Newby2,948CONCON1,595387890720572,200
HarrogateClaro556CONCON2816130028016416
HarrogateFountains and Ripley2,987CONCON1,52031116101710682,231
HarrogateMasham and Kirkby Malzeard2,852CONCON1,4074031540780882,130
HarrogateNidd Valley3,204CONCON1,40240434001540912,391
HarrogatePateley Bridge and Nidderdale Moors2,946CONCON1,3334192650980842,199
HarrogateRipon Minster3,095CONCON1,173600296010001412,310
HarrogateRipon Moorside3,118CONCON1,43949315708901482,326
HarrogateRipon Spa2,974CONCON1,293453211014801162,221
HarrogateRipon Ure Bank2,999CONCON1,145574284010101342,238
HarrogateWashburn2,700CONCON1,3792771850800952,016
HarrogateWathvale3,303CONCON1,64243619608601062,466
 Total78,676CONCON34,16914,1064,70903,26802,47258,724

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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