Sleaford and North Hykeham: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Sleaford and North Hykeham: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Caroline Johnson  (CON)
County/Area: Lincolnshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 94,761
Turnout: 70.2%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON44,68367.1%65.9%
LAB12,11818.2%21.0%
LIB5,3558.0%4.6%
OTH2,6564.0%5.3%
Green1,7422.6%3.1%
CON Majority32,56548.9%Pred Maj 44.8%
Chance of
winning
CON
100%
LAB
0%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%

Sleaford and North Hykeham : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Sleaford and North Hykeham constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat East MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position14° Right4° Right
National Position14° Nat7° Nat
Social Position8° Con4° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %61%59%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health46%45%48%
UK Born95%90%87%
Good Education39%37%39%
Good Job53%48%51%
High SEC55%47%51%
Average Age52.448.948.3
ABC1 Class56%50%54%

Sleaford and North Hykeham ranks #131 for "Leave", #72 for "Right", #53 for "National" and #59 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Sleaford and North Hykeham: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Sleaford and North Hykeham

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Sleaford and North Hykeham.

Sleaford and North HykehamActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
North KestevenAshby de la Launde and Cranwell4,158CONCON1,98352911408302112,920
North KestevenBassingham and Brant Broughton4,250CONCON2,026558135010301632,985
North KestevenBillinghay, Martin and North Kyme4,299CONCON1,94564717308701673,019
North KestevenBranston4,202CONCON1,899631149010401682,951
North KestevenCliff Villages4,499CONCON2,132595145011001773,159
North KestevenEagle, Swinderby and Witham St Hughs4,948CONCON2,412615143010701983,475
North KestevenHeckington Rural4,688CONCON2,37554911807701723,291
North KestevenHeighington and Washingborough5,883CONCON2,839745214012902064,133
North KestevenKirkby la Thorpe and South Kyme1,989CONCON9032886004401001,395
North KestevenLeasingham and Rauceby1,772CONCON944171430270591,244
North KestevenMetheringham4,442CONCON2,020672148010201773,119
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Forum1,852CONCON829277750470741,302
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Memorial2,749CONCON1,19744710806601131,931
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Mill4,665CONCON2,11665328509501293,278
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Moor1,925CONCON898278660390701,351
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Witham1,954CONCON1,010232500300521,374
North KestevenOsbournby2,041CONCON973277580480771,433
North KestevenRuskington4,623CONCON2,16366112708702093,247
North KestevenSleaford Castle2,132CONCON734576670470731,497
North KestevenSleaford Holdingham2,478CONCON9745237905301121,741
North KestevenSleaford Navigation2,018CONCON764471670390751,416
North KestevenSleaford Quarrington and Mareham5,995CONCON2,758946184012202014,211
North KestevenSleaford Westholme1,882CONCON7623506604001041,322
North KestevenWaddington West2,131CONCON907452550400421,496
South KestevenBelvoir2,669CONCON1,289432580390571,875
South KestevenGrantham Arnoldfield188CONCON873350404133
South KestevenGrantham St Wulfram's231CONCON9842601105162
South KestevenLoveden Heath2,097CONCON978277690510971,472
South KestevenPeascliffe and Ridgeway3,936CONCON1,9155278801560772,763
South KestevenViking4,064CONCON1,91054814009601612,855
 Total94,760CONCON43,84014,0023,09502,08303,53066,550

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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