Somerset North East: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Somerset North East: Overview

 Predicted winner: CON 
 Acual winner: CON 

MP at 2019: Jacob Rees-Mogg  (CON)
County/Area: Bristol area (South West)
Electorate: 73,665
Turnout: 76.4%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON28,36050.4%49.3%
LAB13,63124.2%26.4%
LIB12,42222.1%19.8%
Green1,4232.5%2.5%
OTH4720.8%2.0%
CON Majority14,72926.2%Pred Maj 23.0%
Chance of
winning
CON
85%
LAB
11%
LIB
4%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Somerset North East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Somerset North East constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position8° Right8° Right
National Position4° Nat4° Nat
Social Position1° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %51%53%52%
British Identity28%27%29%
Good Health49%47%48%
UK Born95%92%88%
Good Education41%40%39%
Good Job53%50%51%
High SEC55%52%51%
Average Age51.750.548.5
ABC1 Class56%54%54%

Somerset North East ranks #385 for "Leave", #216 for "Right", #296 for "National" and #346 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Somerset North East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Somerset North East: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Somerset North East

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Somerset North East at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Somerset North East. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Somerset North EastActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
OTH
Votes
Bath and North East SomersetBathavon North20155,2371,4734,1352887880
Bath and North East SomersetBathavon South201564412586001770
Bath and North East SomersetBathavon West201571203880328110
Bath and North East SomersetChew Valley North2015969030502840
Bath and North East SomersetChew Valley South20151,071020203210
Bath and North East SomersetClutton201573618354001310
Bath and North East SomersetFarmborough20151,1910409000
Bath and North East SomersetHigh Littleton20151,102028403580
Bath and North East SomersetKeynsham East20153,6601,0981,43704770
Bath and North East SomersetKeynsham North20152,6461,1792794374230
Bath and North East SomersetKeynsham South20152,1261,3104684442440
Bath and North East SomersetMendip20151,034024203440
Bath and North East SomersetMidsomer Norton North20152,8791,7134620425259
Bath and North East SomersetMidsomer Norton Redfield20153,04388854005930
Bath and North East SomersetPaulton20151,3742,031250589235673
Bath and North East SomersetPeasedown20151,5481,51376702832,454
Bath and North East SomersetPublow and Whitchurch2015979021002850
Bath and North East SomersetRadstock20151,2801,4991,1510402707
Bath and North East SomersetSaltford20152,4843321,3643553580
Bath and North East SomersetTimsbury20153592001740134736
Bath and North East SomersetWestfield20151,3062,097414749284738

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Somerset North EastEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Bath and North East SomersetBathavon North6,0462,2301,0071,22601240354,622
Bath and North East SomersetBathavon South2,5749094345550560141,968
Bath and North East SomersetBathavon West1,9817353473730430161,514
Bath and North East SomersetChew Valley North2,0248472743760380111,546
Bath and North East SomersetChew Valley South2,0038552733550380111,532
Bath and North East SomersetClutton2,1728963253860410121,660
Bath and North East SomersetFarmborough2,0969122723700380111,603
Bath and North East SomersetHigh Littleton2,5501,0823684370480141,949
Bath and North East SomersetKeynsham East4,5741,8247178360910283,496
Bath and North East SomersetKeynsham North4,3631,6848816610840263,336
Bath and North East SomersetKeynsham South4,3011,5969456410800263,288
Bath and North East SomersetMendip2,2739573303940440121,737
Bath and North East SomersetMidsomer Norton North4,9531,9409607550950353,785
Bath and North East SomersetMidsomer Norton Redfield4,3341,8547116440780253,312
Bath and North East SomersetPaulton4,5081,6221,0526550840333,446
Bath and North East SomersetPeasedown5,4621,9481,18089801080414,175
Bath and North East SomersetPublow and Whitchurch2,0829242883300380111,591
Bath and North East SomersetRadstock4,7461,5701,1527760930373,628
Bath and North East SomersetSaltford3,4471,3825036640680192,636
Bath and North East SomersetTimsbury2,2218344233790450181,699
Bath and North East SomersetWestfield4,9561,7581,1907110930373,789
 Total73,66628,35913,63212,42201,427047256,312

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Somerset North East

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Somerset North East.

Somerset North EastPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Bath and North East SomersetBathavon North6,0462,1831,1081,12101210894,622
Bath and North East SomersetBathavon South2,5748894775100550371,968
Bath and North East SomersetBathavon West1,9817193803390420341,514
Bath and North East SomersetChew Valley North2,0248313083410370291,546
Bath and North East SomersetChew Valley South2,0038393063200370291,531
Bath and North East SomersetClutton2,1728793613480400311,659
Bath and North East SomersetFarmborough2,0968963073340370301,604
Bath and North East SomersetHigh Littleton2,5501,0624103930470371,949
Bath and North East SomersetKeynsham East4,5741,7887937570890693,496
Bath and North East SomersetKeynsham North4,3631,6509535860820653,336
Bath and North East SomersetKeynsham South4,3011,5621,0155680780643,287
Bath and North East SomersetMendip2,2739393683550430321,737
Bath and North East SomersetMidsomer Norton North4,9531,9011,0426700930793,785
Bath and North East SomersetMidsomer Norton Redfield4,3341,8207825710760633,312
Bath and North East SomersetPaulton4,5081,5871,1245810820723,446
Bath and North East SomersetPeasedown5,4621,9051,27180401060904,176
Bath and North East SomersetPublow and Whitchurch2,0829083232940370301,592
Bath and North East SomersetRadstock4,7461,5331,2316940910793,628
Bath and North East SomersetSaltford3,4471,3555606040670502,636
Bath and North East SomersetTimsbury2,2218174603410440381,700
Bath and North East SomersetWestfield4,9561,7191,2696310910793,789
 Total73,66627,78214,84811,16201,39501,12656,313

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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