Somerset North East: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Somerset North East: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Jacob Rees-Mogg  (CON)
County/Area: Bristol area (South West)
Electorate: 73,665
Turnout: 76.4%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON28,36050.4%49.1%
LAB13,63124.2%31.7%
LIB12,42222.1%11.0%
Green1,4232.5%3.9%
OTH4720.8%4.3%
CON Majority14,72926.2%Pred Maj 17.4%
Chance of
winning
CON
87%
LAB
13%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Somerset North East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Somerset North East constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position8° Right7° Right
National Position4° Nat4° Nat
Social Position1° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %51%53%52%
British Identity28%27%29%
Good Health49%47%48%
UK Born95%92%87%
Good Education41%41%39%
Good Job53%50%51%
High SEC55%52%51%
Average Age51.750.448.3
ABC1 Class56%54%54%

Somerset North East ranks #385 for "Leave", #216 for "Right", #296 for "National" and #346 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Somerset North East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Somerset North East

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Somerset North East.

Somerset North EastActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Bath and North East SomersetBathavon North5,505CONCON1,8521,044894020102164,207
Bath and North East SomersetBathavon South4,323CONCON1,538793663015901513,304
Bath and North East SomersetChew Valley4,819CONCON2,182820344015501803,681
Bath and North East SomersetClutton and Farmborough2,449CONCON1,0494761760820881,871
Bath and North East SomersetHigh Littleton2,430CONCON9084543380720841,856
Bath and North East SomersetKeynsham East4,616CONCON1,669868721010501633,526
Bath and North East SomersetKeynsham North4,531CONCON1,6381,311267010101443,461
Bath and North East SomersetKeynsham South5,215CONCON1,9391,514223015701523,985
Bath and North East SomersetMendip2,375CONCON8604473680550841,814
Bath and North East SomersetMidsomer Norton North4,404CONCON1,6161,150283015301643,366
Bath and North East SomersetMidsomer Norton Redfield4,861CONCON2,296962179013501433,715
Bath and North East SomersetNewbridge223LIBCON6549400907170
Bath and North East SomersetPaulton4,701CONLAB1,4761,72118208301303,592
Bath and North East SomersetPeasedown5,006CONCON1,9861,270223017701683,824
Bath and North East SomersetPublow and Whitchurch2,287CONCON1,132428780610481,747
Bath and North East SomersetRadstock4,428CONLAB1,3951,414263015201593,383
Bath and North East SomersetSaltford4,578CONCON1,774810633013801433,498
Bath and North East SomersetTimsbury2,116CONCON8445191150470931,618
Bath and North East SomersetWestfield4,825LABLAB1,4211,804197014401213,687
 Total73,692CONCON27,64017,8546,18702,18602,43856,305

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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