Somerton and Frome: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Somerton and Frome: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: David Warburton  (CON)
County/Area: Somerset (South West)
Electorate: 85,866
Turnout: 75.6%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON36,23055.8%54.6%
LIB17,01726.2%15.1%
LAB8,35412.9%20.4%
Green3,2955.1%6.4%
OTH00.0%3.5%
CON Majority19,21329.6%Pred Maj 34.2%
Chance of
winning
CON
99%
LIB
0%
LAB
1%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Somerton and Frome : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Somerton and Frome constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position11° Right7° Right
National Position5° Nat4° Nat
Social Position1° Con
TribeKind Yuppies
EU Leave %51%53%52%
British Identity28%27%29%
Good Health47%47%48%
UK Born94%92%87%
Good Education41%41%39%
Good Job49%50%51%
High SEC52%52%51%
Average Age52.750.448.3
ABC1 Class52%54%54%

Somerton and Frome ranks #392 for "Leave", #137 for "Right", #271 for "National" and #335 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Somerton and Frome: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Somerton and Frome

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Somerton and Frome.

Somerton and FromeActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
MendipAmmerdown2,024CONCON97023411301650481,530
MendipBeckington and Selwood1,931CONCON91421914301310521,459
MendipButleigh and Baltonsborough2,023CONCON8842952220740551,530
MendipColeford and Holcombe3,961CONCON1,74583220401280862,995
MendipCranmore, Doulting and Nunney1,942CONCON92723411301450471,466
MendipCreech2,070CONCON7862683880660561,564
MendipFrome Berkley Down3,464CONCON1,32349248702240942,620
MendipFrome College3,471CONCON1,14357768901220942,625
MendipFrome Keyford4,672CONCON1,5581,159296039501233,531
MendipFrome Market3,831CONCON1,317913242032401002,896
MendipFrome Oakfield2,058CONCON8274381490860561,556
MendipFrome Park3,762CONCON1,106863648012401022,843
MendipPostlebury1,821CONCON88020810001460421,376
MendipRode and Norton St Philip2,006CONCON96522211801630491,517
MendipThe Pennards and Ditcheat2,044CONCON9852531780740551,545
South SomersetBlackmoor Vale4,735CONCON2,293572436015001283,579
South SomersetBruton2,017CONCON74133025301460541,524
South SomersetBurrow Hill2,435CONCON1,0252733920850661,841
South SomersetCamelot2,190CONCON1,0832362050730591,656
South SomersetCary4,242CONCON1,647508800013601153,206
South SomersetCurry Rivel, Huish and Langport4,531CONCON1,969666352031401223,423
South SomersetIslemoor1,993CONCON9242352290650541,507
South SomersetMartock4,516CONCON1,575657908015201223,414
South SomersetMilborne Port2,417CONCON8613115080820651,827
South SomersetNorthstone, Ivelchester and St Michael's2,552CONCON1,2693042000870691,929
South SomersetSouth Petherton114CONCON411422060386
South SomersetTower1,967CONCON89521619001340531,488
South SomersetTurn Hill2,128CONCON1,0222911540820571,606
South SomersetWessex4,517CONCON1,735598803015501223,413
South SomersetWincanton4,429CONCON1,997806288013701193,347
 Total85,863CONCON35,40713,2249,83004,17102,26764,899

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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