Somerton and Frome: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Somerton and Frome: Overview

 Predicted winner: CON 
 Acual winner: CON 

MP at 2019: David Warburton  (CON)
County/Area: Somerset (South West)
Electorate: 85,866
Turnout: 75.6%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON36,23055.8%53.5%
LIB17,01726.2%27.2%
LAB8,35412.9%15.7%
Green3,2955.1%3.6%
CON Majority19,21329.6%Pred Maj 26.3%
Chance of
winning
CON
89%
LIB
9%
LAB
2%
Green
0%

Somerton and Frome : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Somerton and Frome constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position11° Right8° Right
National Position5° Nat4° Nat
Social Position1° Con
TribeKind Yuppies
EU Leave %51%53%52%
British Identity28%27%29%
Good Health47%47%48%
UK Born94%92%88%
Good Education41%40%39%
Good Job49%50%51%
High SEC52%52%51%
Average Age52.750.548.5
ABC1 Class52%54%54%

Somerton and Frome ranks #392 for "Leave", #137 for "Right", #271 for "National" and #335 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Somerton and Frome: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Somerton and Frome: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Somerton and Frome

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Somerton and Frome at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Somerton and Frome. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Somerton and FromeActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
OTH
Votes
MendipAmmerdown2015639048102820
MendipBeckington and Selwood2015713028702500
MendipButleigh and Baltonsborough20158310534000
MendipColeford and Holcombe20152,31007524339580
MendipCranmore, Doulting and Nunney2015615055316600
MendipCreech2015699037701930
MendipFrome Berkley Down20151,62901,0547036010
MendipFrome College20151,8082661,59105980
MendipFrome Keyford20155964561,3573891,5760
MendipFrome Market20156654251,03101,6740
MendipFrome Oakfield20152461174881412870
MendipFrome Park20157835071,71687800
MendipPostlebury2015700029703440
MendipRode and Norton St Philip20151,0260439000
MendipThe Pennards and Ditcheat20158690498000
South SomersetBlackmoor Vale20153,2152752,001000
South SomersetBruton201584311431002460
South SomersetBurrow Hill2015878148399000
South SomersetCamelot20151,12110625118100
South SomersetCary20152,9252072,40304820
South SomersetCurry Rivel2015826148000601
South SomersetIslemoor20151,129155417000
South SomersetLangport and Huish201568519947302950
South SomersetMartock20153,1234691,935000
South SomersetMilborne Port2015765184766000
South SomersetNorthstone20151,200200527000
South SomersetTower20159477324102740
South SomersetTurn Hill20151,071142635000
South SomersetWessex20152,1145891,326000
South SomersetWincanton20152,4662231,3335313070

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Somerton and FromeEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
MendipAmmerdown1,979793173449081001,496
MendipBeckington and Selwood1,750751143360068001,322
MendipButleigh and Baltonsborough1,814745141422063001,371
MendipColeford and Holcombe3,9181,7173797020164002,962
MendipCranmore, Doulting and Nunney1,969827164429067001,487
MendipCreech1,855814166350072001,402
MendipFrome Berkley Down3,7361,5993776890159002,824
MendipFrome College3,6461,4593447970156002,756
MendipFrome Keyford3,9971,3736018570190003,021
MendipFrome Market4,2721,4636529040210003,229
MendipFrome Oakfield2,116742297464097001,600
MendipFrome Park4,0281,5484978430156003,044
MendipPostlebury1,819773154373074001,374
MendipRode and Norton St Philip1,851782142411064001,399
MendipThe Pennards and Ditcheat1,802796132376058001,362
South SomersetBlackmoor Vale4,5352,0353638820147003,427
South SomersetBruton2,4201,0362534330107001,829
South SomersetBurrow Hill1,835824150352061001,387
South SomersetCamelot2,2921,101168394068001,731
South SomersetCary4,5651,9323909570171003,450
South SomersetCurry Rivel2,1611,025175364070001,634
South SomersetIslemoor2,3281,069192422077001,760
South SomersetLangport and Huish2,3509782544440100001,776
South SomersetMartock4,7632,0894359110165003,600
South SomersetMilborne Port2,333968215496084001,763
South SomersetNorthstone2,5071,110205496084001,895
South SomersetTower2,003910154374075001,513
South SomersetTurn Hill2,3181,032177469074001,752
South SomersetWessex4,5091,9654328500161003,408
South SomersetWincanton4,3951,9734307460172003,321
 Total85,86636,2298,35517,01603,2950064,895

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Somerton and Frome

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Somerton and Frome.

Somerton and FromePredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
MendipAmmerdown1,979758216463058001,495
MendipBeckington and Selwood1,750720181372049001,322
MendipButleigh and Baltonsborough1,814713178434045001,370
MendipColeford and Holcombe3,9181,6484667310118002,963
MendipCranmore, Doulting and Nunney1,969792204442048001,486
MendipCreech1,855781206363052001,402
MendipFrome Berkley Down3,7361,5334607170114002,824
MendipFrome College3,6461,3954258240112002,756
MendipFrome Keyford3,9971,3026948880136003,020
MendipFrome Market4,2721,3887539370151003,229
MendipFrome Oakfield2,116705346480070001,601
MendipFrome Park4,0281,4775848720112003,045
MendipPostlebury1,819741194386053001,374
MendipRode and Norton St Philip1,851749180424046001,399
MendipThe Pennards and Ditcheat1,802764168388042001,362
South SomersetBlackmoor Vale4,5351,9554549120106003,427
South SomersetBruton2,420993308451077001,829
South SomersetBurrow Hill1,835792187364044001,387
South SomersetCamelot2,2921,061213409049001,732
South SomersetCary4,5651,8514879890123003,450
South SomersetCurry Rivel2,161987219378050001,634
South SomersetIslemoor2,3281,028239438055001,760
South SomersetLangport and Huish2,350937306461072001,776
South SomersetMartock4,7632,0055339430118003,599
South SomersetMilborne Port2,333927264512060001,763
South SomersetNorthstone2,5071,066256513060001,895
South SomersetTower2,003875196388054001,513
South SomersetTurn Hill2,318991223484053001,751
South SomersetWessex4,5091,8855268810116003,408
South SomersetWincanton4,3951,8955257770123003,320
 Total85,86634,71410,19117,62102,3660064,892

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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