Stafford: Seat Details

Stafford: Overview

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:Leigh Ingham  (LAB)
County/Area:Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:70,608
Turnout:65.2%

Party2024
Votes
2024
Share
Pred
Votes
LAB18,53140.3%27.5%
CON13,93630.3%26.5%
Reform8,61218.7%28.3%
Green2,8566.2%8.8%
LIB1,6763.6%8.1%
OTH3980.9%0.7%
LAB Majority4,59510.0%0.8%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
LAB
32%
CON
30%
Reform
38%
Green
0%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%

Stafford : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Stafford constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat West MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2024LABLABLAB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Economic Position7° Right3° Right
National Position6° Nat7° Nat
Social Position3° Con6° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %56%59%52%
Average Age51.949.849.6
Good Education52%46%51%
Employed58%55%57%
Homeowner70%65%64%
Car owner85%79%77%
Married48%45%45%
Ethnic White92%77%83%
Christian55%49%48%
ABC1 Class59%51%56%
Gross Household Income£43,444£39,700£42,397
Deprivation47%54%52%
Average House Price£234,946£231,981£313,667

Stafford ranks #250 for "Leave", #249 for "Economic Right Position", #250 for "National Position" and #284 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Stafford: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Stafford

This table shows the recent and predicted future general election results broken down over each ward in the seat of Stafford. These are not local election results, which will be different.

StaffordActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2024
GE24
Winner
Pred GE
Winner
Newcastle-under-LymeLoggerheads3,650CONCON
Newcastle-under-LymeMaer and Whitmore2,216CONCON
StaffordBaswich4,870LABCON
StaffordCommon2,983LABLAB
StaffordCoton4,988LABLAB
StaffordDoxey and Castletown2,775LABReform
StaffordEccleshall5,550CONCON
StaffordForebridge2,610LABLAB
StaffordGnosall and Woodseaves5,422CONReform
StaffordHighfields and Western Downs4,810LABLAB
StaffordHolmcroft5,449LABCON
StaffordLittleworth4,328LABLAB
StaffordManor5,180LABLAB
StaffordPenkside2,561LABLAB
StaffordRowley2,940LABCON
StaffordSeighford and Church Eaton5,526CONReform
StaffordWeeping Cross and Wildwood4,752LABReform
 Total70,610LABReform

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2025.


© 2025 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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