Surrey South West: Seat Details

Surrey South West: Overview

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:Jeremy Hunt  (CON)
County/Area:Surrey (South East)
Electorate:79,096
Turnout:76.3%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON32,19153.3%45.6%
LIB23,37438.7%32.8%
LAB4,7757.9%13.9%
Green00.0%4.4%
OTH00.0%3.3%
CON Majority8,81714.6%12.8%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
CON
79%
LIB
20%
LAB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Surrey South West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Surrey South West constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South EastAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position16° Right11° Right
National Position5° Glo3° Nat
Social Position4° Lib1° Con
TribeKind Yuppies
EU Leave %41%52%52%
British Identity32%29%29%
Good Health54%49%48%
UK Born89%88%87%
Good Education53%43%39%
Good Job66%56%51%
High SEC69%57%51%
Average Age51.249.148.3
ABC1 Class71%60%54%
Average House Price£614,884£413,307£309,875

Surrey South West ranks #539 for "Leave", #30 for "Right", #487 for "National" and #498 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Surrey South West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Surrey South West

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Surrey South West.

Surrey South WestActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WaverleyBramley, Busbridge and Hascombe3,630CONCON1,69225461001230902,769
WaverleyChiddingfold and Dunsfold3,104CONCON1,39025853801050772,368
WaverleyElstead and Thursley3,112CONCON1,39231548501050772,374
WaverleyFarnham Bourne3,288CONCON1,45221664901110822,510
WaverleyFarnham Castle3,225CONCON1,08135783401090802,461
WaverleyFarnham Firgrove3,274CONCON1,12432885401110812,498
WaverleyFarnham Hale and Heath End3,352CONCON1,18436980801130832,557
WaverleyFarnham Moor Park3,820CONCON1,34738695701290952,914
WaverleyFarnham Shortheath and Boundstone3,304CONCON1,16336280101120822,520
WaverleyFarnham Upper Hale3,199CONCON1,05145374901080792,440
WaverleyFarnham Weybourne and Badshot Lea3,472LIBLIB9602991,18701170862,649
WaverleyFarnham Wrecclesham and Rowledge3,468CONCON1,27835680901170862,646
WaverleyFrensham, Dockenfield and Tilford3,130CONCON1,41029550001060782,389
WaverleyGodalming Binscombe3,099LIBLIB80752485101050772,364
WaverleyGodalming Central and Ockford3,676LIBLIB7684571,36301240912,803
WaverleyGodalming Charterhouse2,726CONCON9304185720920682,080
WaverleyGodalming Farncombe and Catteshall3,619LIBLIB8265901,13301220902,761
WaverleyGodalming Holloway3,360CONCON1,08237790901130832,564
WaverleyHaslemere Critchmere and Shottermill4,478LIBLIB1,1664601,528015101113,416
WaverleyHaslemere East and Grayswood5,229CONCON2,0324081,242017701303,989
WaverleyHindhead3,327CONCON1,10525198601120832,537
WaverleyMilford3,175CONCON1,02629791301070792,422
WaverleyWitley and Hambledon3,029CONCON1,25134853401020752,310
 Total79,096CONCON27,5178,37819,81202,67101,96360,341

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2021.


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