Surrey South West: Seat Details

WARNING: This is the page for the old seat. The new seats, which will be used at the next general election, are more relevant. See the new seat of Farnham and Bordon, or click here to find another new seat.

Surrey South West: Overview

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:Jeremy Hunt  (CON)
County/Area:Surrey (South East)
Electorate:79,096
Turnout:76.3%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON32,19153.3%32.5%
LIB23,37438.7%27.3%
LAB4,7757.9%23.2%
Reform00.0%10.5%
Green00.0%5.7%
OTH00.0%0.9%
CON Majority8,81714.6%5.2%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
CON
55%
LIB
28%
LAB
16%
Reform
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Surrey South West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Surrey South West constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South EastAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position16° Right11° Right
National Position5° Glo3° Nat
Social Position4° Lib1° Con
TribeKind Yuppies
EU Leave %41%52%52%
Average Age52.350.449.5
Good Education63%53%49%
Employed60%59%58%
Homeowner73%68%63%
Car owner89%84%77%
Married53%48%45%
Ethnic White93%86%83%
Christian55%50%50%
ABC1 Class75%62%56%
Gross Household Income£58,362£50,167£42,397
Deprivation40%48%52%
Average House Price£614,884£409,816£313,528

Surrey South West ranks #539 for "Leave", #30 for "Economic Right Position", #487 for "National Position" and #498 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Surrey South West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Surrey South West

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Surrey South West.

Surrey South WestActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WaverleyAlfold, Dunsfold and Hascombe1,611CONCON47520327913555051,152
WaverleyBramley and Wonersh3,918CONCON1,2585246692981490172,915
WaverleyChiddingfold2,142CONCON62330440117380051,586
WaverleyElstead and Peper Harow2,097CONCON62131536817376051,558
WaverleyFarnham Bourne3,976CONCON1,2475956593081780373,024
WaverleyFarnham Castle3,966CONLIB7237407552821670382,705
WaverleyFarnham Firgrove4,158CONCON8747757713241850402,969
WaverleyFarnham Heath End4,091CONCON8647766993191680412,867
WaverleyFarnham Moor Park3,642CONCON8525537992701510262,651
WaverleyFarnham North West3,241CONCON7135785952541320282,300
WaverleyFarnham Rowledge4,171CONCON1,0397157293341850413,043
WaverleyFarnham Weybourne3,327CONCON7035266692611280302,317
WaverleyGodalming Binscombe and Charterhouse5,793CONLAB1,1821,2221,0744052460354,164
WaverleyGodalming Central and Ockford3,382LIBLIB5256378642251470192,417
WaverleyGodalming Farncombe and Catteshall3,709LIBLIB5947439192431520202,671
WaverleyGodalming Holloway3,702CONCON8666558652451570192,807
WaverleyHaslemere East5,406CONCON1,3668391,0124232270493,916
WaverleyHaslemere West3,665LIBLIB6696078822731600312,622
WaverleyHindhead and Beacon Hill3,598CONLIB7875098592721360122,575
WaverleyMilford and Witley5,911CONCON1,4988991,1984612130134,282
WaverleyWestern Commons3,592CONCON1,0735585232991420162,611
 Total79,098CONCON18,55213,27315,5895,9773,234052757,152

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2023.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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