Thirsk and Malton: Seat Details

Thirsk and Malton: Overview

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:Kevin Hollinrake  (CON)
County/Area:North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:78,484
Turnout:63.4%

Party2024
Votes
2024
Share
Pred
Votes
CON19,54439.2%39.3%
LAB11,99424.1%24.1%
Reform8,96318.0%18.0%
LIB5,37910.8%10.8%
Green2,9866.0%6.0%
OTH9311.9%1.8%
CON Majority7,55015.2%15.2%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
CON
100%
LAB
0%
Reform
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Thirsk and Malton : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Thirsk and Malton constituency, the 'Yorks/Humber' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Yorks/HumberAll GB
Party Winner 2024CONLABLAB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Economic Position8° Right2° Left
National Position11° Nat4° Nat
Social Position6° Con3° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %57%58%52%
Average Age54.949.849.5
Good Education49%47%49%
Employed56%55%58%
Homeowner68%64%63%
Car owner88%76%77%
Married52%44%45%
Ethnic White98%85%83%
Christian62%48%50%
ABC1 Class53%51%56%
Gross Household Income£40,237£38,897£42,397
Deprivation48%53%52%
Average House Price£261,958£196,988£313,528

Thirsk and Malton ranks #222 for "Leave", #226 for "Economic Right Position", #138 for "National Position" and #115 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Thirsk and Malton: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Thirsk and Malton

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Thirsk and Malton.

Thirsk and MaltonActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2024
GE24
Winner
Pred
Winner
North YorkshireAiskew and Leeming4,661CONCON
North YorkshireAmotherby and Ampleforth4,364CONCON
North YorkshireBedale5,280CONCON
North YorkshireFiley5,858CONCON
North YorkshireHelmsley and Sinnington4,268CONCON
North YorkshireHillside and Raskelf2,787CONCON
North YorkshireHunmanby and Sherburn5,196CONCON
North YorkshireKirkbymoorside and Dales5,418CONCON
North YorkshireMalton4,943CONCON
North YorkshireNorton6,092CONCON
North YorkshirePickering6,193CONCON
North YorkshireSheriff Hutton and Derwent5,660CONCON
North YorkshireSowerby and Topcliffe6,173CONCON
North YorkshireThirsk5,690CONCON
North YorkshireThornton Dale and Wolds5,900CONCON
 Total78,483CONCON

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2024.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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