Thirsk and Malton: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Thirsk and Malton: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Kevin Hollinrake  (CON)
County/Area: North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate: 80,979
Turnout: 69.9%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON35,63463.0%61.7%
LAB10,48018.5%22.6%
LIB6,77412.0%6.5%
Green2,2634.0%4.7%
OTH1,4372.5%4.5%
CON Majority25,15444.5%Pred Maj 39.1%
Chance of
winning
CON
99%
LAB
1%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Thirsk and Malton : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Thirsk and Malton constituency, the 'Yorks/Humber' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Yorks/HumberAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position9° Right3° Left
National Position10° Nat4° Nat
Social Position6° Con3° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %56%58%52%
British Identity28%28%29%
Good Health46%46%48%
UK Born96%91%87%
Good Education39%36%39%
Good Job48%47%51%
High SEC51%46%51%
Average Age53.448.348.3
ABC1 Class50%49%54%

Thirsk and Malton ranks #267 for "Leave", #206 for "Right", #155 for "National" and #135 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Thirsk and Malton: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Thirsk and Malton

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Thirsk and Malton.

Thirsk and MaltonActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HambletonBagby and Thorntons2,710CONCON1,3133141000690991,895
HambletonEasingwold8,337CONCON3,4221,666307019902305,824
HambletonHuby3,018CONCON1,578309950730522,107
HambletonMorton-on-Swale519CONCON257691601209363
HambletonRaskelf and White Horse2,776CONCON1,3282858701830581,941
HambletonSowerby and Topcliffe5,745CONCON2,4511,155181011201154,014
HambletonThirsk5,496CONCON2,415858175029301003,841
RyedaleAmotherby1,545CONCON6312081390400591,077
RyedaleAmpleforth1,327CONCON573161114034046928
RyedaleCropton1,369CONCON61519451038059957
RyedaleDales1,138CONCON51115346035051796
RyedaleDerwent2,785CONCON1,1804251850740801,944
RyedaleHelmsley2,624CONCON1,08235810801970891,834
RyedaleHovingham1,456CONCON5632261280430581,018
RyedaleKirkbymoorside2,811CONCON981469184020301281,965
RyedaleMalton4,410CONCON1,742805207011702103,081
RyedaleNorton East3,356CONCON1,3975622130750972,344
RyedaleNorton West2,544CONCON9674112560700731,777
RyedalePickering East3,019CONCON1,25350614508801162,108
RyedalePickering West2,842CONCON1,16450113308001081,986
RyedaleRillington1,444CONCON727174370300411,009
RyedaleRyedale South West1,395CONCON75212543031024975
RyedaleSherburn1,596CONCON722248550410501,116
RyedaleSheriff Hutton1,472CONCON659207640450541,029
RyedaleSinnington1,448CONCON651203640410541,013
RyedaleThornton Dale2,837CONCON1,2693989401700521,983
RyedaleWolds1,481CONCON767163360350351,036
ScarboroughFiley5,785CONCON2,3701,035244015302394,041
ScarboroughHunmanby3,705CONCON1,574620156010201352,587
 Total80,990CONCON34,91412,8083,66302,68302,52156,589

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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