Thirsk and Malton: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Thirsk and Malton: Overview

 Predicted winner: CON 
 Acual winner: CON 

MP at 2019: Kevin Hollinrake  (CON)
County/Area: North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate: 80,979
Turnout: 69.9%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON35,63463.0%60.9%
LAB10,48018.5%24.4%
LIB6,77412.0%10.1%
Green2,2634.0%2.8%
OTH1,4372.5%1.8%
CON Majority25,15444.5%Pred Maj 36.6%
Chance of
winning
CON
97%
LAB
3%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Thirsk and Malton : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Thirsk and Malton constituency, the 'Yorks/Humber' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Yorks/HumberAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position9° Right2° Left
National Position10° Nat4° Nat
Social Position6° Con3° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %56%58%52%
British Identity28%28%29%
Good Health46%46%48%
UK Born96%92%88%
Good Education39%36%39%
Good Job48%47%51%
High SEC51%46%51%
Average Age53.448.548.5
ABC1 Class50%49%54%

Thirsk and Malton ranks #267 for "Leave", #206 for "Right", #155 for "National" and #135 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Thirsk and Malton: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Thirsk and Malton: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Thirsk and Malton

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Thirsk and Malton at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Thirsk and Malton. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Thirsk and MaltonActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
OTH
Votes
HambletonBagby and Thorntons2015-100000
HambletonEasingwold20157,3780001,4512,868
HambletonHuby2015-100000
HambletonMorton-on-Swale20151,5804240000
HambletonRaskelf and White Horse2015-100000
HambletonSowerby and Topcliffe20153,04200002,274
HambletonThirsk20153,36300001,787
RyedaleAmotherby20155700000485
RyedaleAmpleforth20156190003340
RyedaleCropton20154710000526
RyedaleDales20155340000281
RyedaleDerwent20151,827057400659
RyedaleHelmsley20151,814000407584
RyedaleHovingham20150000439599
RyedaleKirkbymoorside20151,52043600477654
RyedaleMalton20151,748841053202,522
RyedaleNorton East20151,06407604020309
RyedaleNorton West20151,22209563810522
RyedalePickering East2015739247169001,675
RyedalePickering West20158173140001,500
RyedaleRillington2015000220145492
RyedaleRyedale South West2015-100000
RyedaleSherburn2015464003401930
RyedaleSheriff Hutton20157260000337
RyedaleSinnington2015664106002890
RyedaleThornton Dale20152,144425005100
RyedaleWolds2015-100000
ScarboroughFiley20151,004003,1785871,554
ScarboroughHertford20152,530008907290

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Thirsk and MaltonEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HambletonBagby and Thorntons2,5661,2492132260690371,794
HambletonEasingwold8,2063,5651,055729024501415,735
HambletonHuby2,8501,3512752460770421,991
HambletonMorton-on-Swale556256614801508388
HambletonRaskelf and White Horse2,8651,3672642500770452,003
HambletonSowerby and Topcliffe5,5332,515671434014601003,866
HambletonThirsk5,6392,525748419014801003,940
RyedaleAmotherby1,6867721921390450311,179
RyedaleAmpleforth1,8098191981650550271,264
RyedaleCropton1,282578149110035024896
RyedaleDales1,197563115103033023837
RyedaleDerwent2,8981,2573203160820512,026
RyedaleHelmsley2,5391,1602922060720441,774
RyedaleHovingham1,391578195129044025971
RyedaleKirkbymoorside2,8621,1824342420850572,000
RyedaleMalton4,0871,61772931501110842,856
RyedaleNorton East3,2571,2915532850860602,275
RyedaleNorton West2,9171,1914232900800542,038
RyedalePickering East2,7061,1154052430740531,890
RyedalePickering West3,0141,2374892410810592,107
RyedaleRillington1,4436292071030400291,008
RyedaleRyedale South West1,407674125125039020983
RyedaleSherburn1,6647422291180470271,163
RyedaleSheriff Hutton1,4486501591350410261,011
RyedaleSinnington1,415643152131042021989
RyedaleThornton Dale2,7241,2343152340790411,903
RyedaleWolds1,5077181581150390231,053
ScarboroughFiley5,4612,296870375016101143,816
ScarboroughHertford4,0511,86148330101150702,830
 Total80,98035,63510,4796,77302,26301,43656,586

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Thirsk and Malton

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Thirsk and Malton.

Thirsk and MaltonPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HambletonBagby and Thorntons2,5661,2133161900490261,794
HambletonEasingwold8,2063,4481,40061401740985,734
HambletonHuby2,8501,3113892070550291,991
HambletonMorton-on-Swale556248834001106388
HambletonRaskelf and White Horse2,8651,3263802110550312,003
HambletonSowerby and Topcliffe5,5332,43689036601040703,866
HambletonThirsk5,6392,44596735301050703,940
RyedaleAmotherby1,6867482601170320221,179
RyedaleAmpleforth1,8097932741390390191,264
RyedaleCropton1,28256020293025017897
RyedaleDales1,19754616587023016837
RyedaleDerwent2,8981,2164502660580362,026
RyedaleHelmsley2,5391,1243951740510311,775
RyedaleHovingham1,391558255109031017970
RyedaleKirkbymoorside2,8621,1415552040600402,000
RyedaleMalton4,0871,5598942650790592,856
RyedaleNorton East3,2571,2456872400610422,275
RyedaleNorton West2,9171,1505502440570382,039
RyedalePickering East2,7061,0775192050530371,891
RyedalePickering West3,0141,1946112030580412,107
RyedaleRillington1,443609264870280201,008
RyedaleRyedale South West1,407654182105028014983
RyedaleSherburn1,664718293990330191,162
RyedaleSheriff Hutton1,4486292211140290181,011
RyedaleSinnington1,415623211110030015989
RyedaleThornton Dale2,7241,1954261970560291,903
RyedaleWolds1,507697216970280161,054
ScarboroughFiley5,4612,2181,08831601140793,815
ScarboroughHertford4,0511,8036422540820492,830
 Total80,98034,48413,7855,70601,60801,00456,587

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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