Tiverton and Honiton: Seat Details

WARNING: This is the page for the old seat. The new seats, which will be used at the next general election, are more relevant. See the new seat of Honiton and Sidmouth, or click here to find another new seat.

Tiverton and Honiton: Overview

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:Neil Parish  (CON)
County/Area:Devon (South West)
Electorate:82,953
Turnout:71.9%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON35,89360.2%36.1%
LAB11,65419.5%15.7%
LIB8,80714.8%33.6%
Green2,2913.8%4.4%
OTH9681.6%0.8%
Reform00.0%9.4%
CON Majority24,23940.7%2.6%
Pred Maj

Result shown is the original general election result, before the resignation of Mr Neil Parish. Richard Foord (Lib Dem) won the seat in a by-election on 23 June 2022.

Chance of winning
CON
56%
LAB
2%
LIB
42%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
Reform
0%

Tiverton and Honiton : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Tiverton and Honiton constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position11° Right8° Right
National Position12° Nat4° Nat
Social Position6° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %56%53%52%
Average Age55.151.649.5
Good Education47%52%49%
Employed55%57%58%
Homeowner71%68%63%
Car owner87%84%77%
Married51%47%45%
Ethnic White98%93%83%
Christian53%49%50%
ABC1 Class53%58%56%
Gross Household Income£39,452£41,731£42,397
Deprivation51%50%52%
Average House Price£303,267£311,706£313,528

Tiverton and Honiton ranks #260 for "Leave", #146 for "Economic Right Position", #102 for "National Position" and #134 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Tiverton and Honiton: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Tiverton and Honiton

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Tiverton and Honiton.

Tiverton and HonitonActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East DevonAxminster6,074CONLIB1,1856561,3233541440233,685
East DevonBeer and Branscombe2,120CONCON55821840013454081,372
East DevonColy Valley3,898CONCON1,092360725247990172,540
East DevonDunkeswell and Otterhead4,513CONCON1,2183488942811090192,869
East DevonFeniton1,975CONCON47819038612155091,239
East DevonHoniton St Michael's5,522CONCON1,3494901,0293321370543,391
East DevonHoniton St Paul's3,713CONCON836412673222920372,272
East DevonNewbridges2,062CONCON58917840313052081,360
East DevonSeaton5,777CONCON1,3744271,3413591300213,652
East DevonTale Vale1,695CONCON44312637110343091,095
East DevonTrinity2,124CONCON59823139213160091,421
East DevonYarty2,086CONCON585177417133540101,376
Mid DevonBradninch133CONLIB251535840188
Mid DevonCanonsleigh2,943CONCON7372926681771160102,000
Mid DevonClare and Shuttern3,021CONLIB749209755183790101,985
Mid DevonCullompton Padbrook3,138CONLIB603308653171770131,825
Mid DevonCullompton St Andrews4,194CONLIB7824438452281000182,416
Mid DevonCullompton Vale1,022CONCON22393205582504608
Mid DevonHalberton1,439CONCON341140322815505944
Mid DevonLower Culm5,373CONLIB1,2004641,2953091470173,432
Mid DevonTiverton Castle3,399CONLIB602436786186940272,131
Mid DevonTiverton Cranmore3,931CONLIB8234979012361150282,600
Mid DevonTiverton Lowman4,860CONLIB8916391,0162721980393,055
Mid DevonTiverton Westexe4,652CONCON9156339142861670352,950
Mid DevonUpper Culm3,291CONLIB766230866198900102,160
 Total82,955CONCON18,9628,21217,6154,9402,296044152,466

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2023.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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