Tonbridge and Malling: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Tonbridge and Malling: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Tom Tugendhat  (CON)
County/Area: Kent (South East)
Electorate: 77,380
Turnout: 73.7%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON35,78462.8%61.5%
LIB8,84315.5%7.0%
LAB8,28614.5%20.5%
Green4,0907.2%8.2%
OTH00.0%2.8%
CON Majority26,94147.3%Pred Maj 41.0%
Chance of
winning
CON
99%
LIB
0%
LAB
1%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Tonbridge and Malling : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Tonbridge and Malling constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South EastAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position16° Right11° Right
National Position7° Nat3° Nat
Social Position3° Con1° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %53%52%52%
British Identity28%29%29%
Good Health51%49%48%
UK Born92%88%87%
Good Education42%43%39%
Good Job60%56%51%
High SEC62%57%51%
Average Age50.549.148.3
ABC1 Class63%60%54%

Tonbridge and Malling ranks #340 for "Leave", #38 for "Right", #215 for "National" and #248 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Tonbridge and Malling: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Tonbridge and Malling

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Tonbridge and Malling.

Tonbridge and MallingActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
SevenoaksCowden and Hever1,666CONCON933143390620211,198
SevenoaksEdenbridge North and East3,712CONCON1,503662245015701012,668
SevenoaksEdenbridge South and West3,177CONCON1,26752227101370862,283
SevenoaksLeigh and Chiddingstone Causeway1,826CONCON1,015161450680241,313
SevenoaksPenshurst, Fordcombe and Chiddingstone1,976CONCON1,106167480750261,422
Tonbridge and MallingBorough Green and Long Mill5,777CONCON2,88572919202520984,156
Tonbridge and MallingCage Green3,629CONCON1,57254113802900692,610
Tonbridge and MallingCastle3,481CONCON1,38359115103050742,504
Tonbridge and MallingDowns and Mereworth3,614CONCON2,0482988201260452,599
Tonbridge and MallingEast Malling3,762CONCON1,413656380015401022,705
Tonbridge and MallingHadlow and East Peckham5,600CONCON2,70269917703560914,025
Tonbridge and MallingHigham3,708CONCON1,64752513502910682,666
Tonbridge and MallingHildenborough3,774CONCON1,64351415803220782,715
Tonbridge and MallingJudd3,802CONCON1,39568214204440712,734
Tonbridge and MallingKings Hill6,393CONCON3,106836263026201304,597
Tonbridge and MallingMedway5,254CONCON1,9471,010226048401113,778
Tonbridge and MallingTrench3,610CONCON1,44086210501340552,596
Tonbridge and MallingVauxhall3,745CONCON1,236695471018901022,693
Tonbridge and MallingWateringbury1,611CONCON810193610650301,159
Tonbridge and MallingWest Malling and Leybourne5,653CONCON2,282823568023801534,064
Tonbridge and MallingWrotham, Ightham and Stansted3,506CONCON1,7313698502900462,521
 Total79,276CONCON35,06411,6783,98204,70101,58157,006

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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