Totnes: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Totnes: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Anthony Mangnall  (CON)
County/Area: Devon (South West)
Electorate: 69,863
Turnout: 74.7%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON27,75153.2%51.9%
LIB15,02728.8%17.7%
LAB8,86017.0%24.5%
OTH5441.0%4.5%
Green00.0%1.4%
CON Majority12,72424.4%Pred Maj 27.4%
Chance of
winning
CON
95%
LIB
1%
LAB
4%
OTH
0%
Green
0%

Totnes : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Totnes constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position7° Right7° Right
National Position7° Nat4° Nat
Social Position3° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %53%53%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health43%47%48%
UK Born95%92%87%
Good Education40%41%39%
Good Job49%50%51%
High SEC51%52%51%
Average Age55.050.448.3
ABC1 Class51%54%54%

Totnes ranks #337 for "Leave", #240 for "Right", #204 for "National" and #284 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Totnes: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Totnes

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Totnes.

TotnesActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
South HamsAllington and Strete2,450CONCON1,0013144010250891,830
South HamsBlackawton and Stoke Fleming1,993CONCON8112543410200631,489
South HamsDartington and Staverton2,300CONCON9803812690230651,718
South HamsDartmouth and East Dart6,320CONCON2,6661,31745806402164,721
South HamsKingsbridge4,528CONCON1,43681395904601283,382
South HamsLoddiswell and Aveton Gifford1,504CONCON5442412800150431,123
South HamsMarldon and Littlehempston2,418CONCON1,0453872550240941,805
South HamsSalcombe and Thurlestone4,087CONCON1,96458529804101643,052
South HamsSouth Brent4,362CONCON1,63868477004401233,259
South HamsStokenham2,270CONCON7603015240230881,696
South HamsTotnes7,275CONCON1,9831,7821,39307402035,435
South HamsWest Dart2,169CONCON7522954910220611,621
TorbayChurston with Galmpton5,773CONCON2,73679052405802034,311
TorbayClifton with Maidenway862CONCON26715918009029644
TorbayCollaton St Mary2,263CONCON9614102170230801,691
TorbayFurzeham with Summercombe8,234CONCON3,3611,58879908303196,150
TorbayGoodrington with Roselands236CONCON8439430208176
TorbayKing's Ash5,332CONCON1,8011,38255105401953,983
TorbaySt Peter's with St Mary's5,487CONCON2,2971,05349505601974,098
 Total69,863CONCON27,08712,7759,248070602,36852,184

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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