Ulster Mid: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Ulster Mid: Overview

 Predicted winner: SF 
 Acual winner: SF 

MP at 2019: Francie Molloy  (SF)
County/Area: Tyrone (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 70,449
Turnout: 63.3%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
SF20,47345.9%48.6%
DUP10,93624.5%19.0%
SDLP6,38414.3%12.2%
Alliance3,5267.9%8.5%
UUP2,6115.9%8.1%
OTH6901.5%3.6%
SF Majority9,53721.4%Pred Maj 29.6%
Chance of
winning
SF
99%
DUP
1%
SDLP
0%
Alliance
0%
UUP
0%
OTH
0%

Ulster Mid : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Ulster Mid constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2017SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2015SFDUPCON
EU Leave %40%44%52%
British Identity26%40%29%
Good Health49%48%48%
UK Born95%93%88%
Good Education32%36%39%
Good Job41%47%51%
High SEC56%57%51%
Average Age45.847.248.4
ABC1 Class35%45%53%

Ulster Mid ranks #548 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Ulster Mid: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Ulster Mid: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Ulster Mid

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Ulster Mid at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Ulster Mid. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Ulster MidActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
OTH
Votes
Mid UlsterArdboe20141312837700794111
Mid UlsterBallygawley2014268294268006290
Mid UlsterBallymaguigan2014269251263008680
Mid UlsterBellaghy2014202282155008620
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield2014336241330005090
Mid UlsterCastledawson2014318126387006830
Mid UlsterCoagh20143361501677051586
Mid UlsterCoalisland North201418824014300665109
Mid UlsterCoalisland South20141153087500887170
Mid UlsterCookstown East201431990217200424146
Mid UlsterCookstown South201420825057380699138
Mid UlsterCookstown West201436495253320459180
Mid UlsterCoolshinny201417019436600368242
Mid UlsterDonaghmore201423722818500644103
Mid UlsterDraperstown201410926789007830
Mid UlsterGlebe201410327330300469289
Mid UlsterKillyman201432151320180126234
Mid UlsterKillymeal201430598319580202352
Mid UlsterLissan201423615143000322241
Mid UlsterLoughry201431657242190329147
Mid UlsterLower Glenshane201460278280086636
Mid UlsterMaghera2014115217140001,010153
Mid UlsterOaklands20143161631281052460
Mid UlsterPomeroy2014277274661078175
Mid UlsterStewartstown20142809231900361126
Mid UlsterSwatragh201491299500099147
Mid UlsterTamlaght O'Crilly201423413028400781133
Mid UlsterThe Loup201416927029800466216
Mid UlsterTobermore201435678477005800
Mid UlsterTown Parks East201410619333600445326
Mid UlsterValley201415119117100932129
Mid UlsterWashing Bay2014153341530076049

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Ulster MidEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Mid UlsterArdboe2,5807627126911808770231,634
Mid UlsterBallygawley41817446722010904263
Mid UlsterBallymaguigan2,76410824437713908550281,751
Mid UlsterBellaghy2,5128624427112208440241,591
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield714307114338016208452
Mid UlsterCastledawson2,53710416749912706850261,608
Mid UlsterCoagh2,28010319932912406650241,444
Mid UlsterCoalisland North2,4839225229112607870251,573
Mid UlsterCoalisland South2,8717829829312709970251,818
Mid UlsterCookstown East2,19810915840012905720241,392
Mid UlsterCookstown South2,5139925528914307800251,591
Mid UlsterCookstown West2,50012817946915406260281,584
Mid UlsterCoolshinny2,4399423559112404770241,545
Mid UlsterDonaghmore2,57910725134813607650271,634
Mid UlsterDraperstown2,089572142079207340181,322
Mid UlsterGlebe2,6168332549912406020251,658
Mid UlsterKillyman42520251122408404269
Mid UlsterKillymeal2371217531704902150
Mid UlsterLissan2,51110820165813204650261,590
Mid UlsterLoughry2,00710512844012004560221,271
Mid UlsterLower Glenshane2,031452051858107540161,286
Mid UlsterMaghera2,6166720525211001,0000221,656
Mid UlsterOaklands2,1589319827611606630221,368
Mid UlsterPomeroy2,66610426530813808440281,687
Mid UlsterStewartstown2,1789815252811704620231,380
Mid UlsterSwatragh2,367572262229708770201,499
Mid UlsterTamlaght O'Crilly2,5009716637912307930251,583
Mid UlsterThe Loup2,5849730749813205780261,638
Mid UlsterTobermore2,49610313760412405870251,580
Mid UlsterTown Parks East2,5588224555912005900241,620
Mid UlsterValley2,5177419125611209380221,593
Mid UlsterWashing Bay2,5047930926111807960231,586
 Total70,4482,6126,38410,9333,526020,473068844,616

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Ulster Mid

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Ulster Mid.

Ulster MidPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Mid UlsterArdboe2,580121253215009860591,634
Mid UlsterBallygawley41825415600129011262
Mid UlsterBallymaguigan2,764161228307009840711,751
Mid UlsterBellaghy2,512132228217009540611,592
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield714446612500197020452
Mid UlsterCastledawson2,537152156434008010651,608
Mid UlsterCoagh2,280149186271007770611,444
Mid UlsterCoalisland North2,483140235233009020631,573
Mid UlsterCoalisland South2,871127278234001,1150641,818
Mid UlsterCookstown East2,198155147344006840611,391
Mid UlsterCookstown South2,513151238231009050671,592
Mid UlsterCookstown West2,500182167405007570721,583
Mid UlsterCoolshinny2,439142219529005920631,545
Mid UlsterDonaghmore2,579159234282008900691,634
Mid UlsterDraperstown2,08992200165008190461,322
Mid UlsterGlebe2,616133303432007230661,657
Mid UlsterKillyman425292310100105011269
Mid UlsterKillymeal237181647006307151
Mid UlsterLissan2,511158188594005850661,591
Mid UlsterLoughry2,007148119389005590561,271
Mid UlsterLower Glenshane2,03176191148008290411,285
Mid UlsterMaghera2,616108191201001,1000551,655
Mid UlsterOaklands2,158137185221007680571,368
Mid UlsterPomeroy2,666156247246009680701,687
Mid UlsterStewartstown2,178141142473005660581,380
Mid UlsterSwatragh2,36794211177009670501,499
Mid UlsterTamlaght O'Crilly2,500144155315009060631,583
Mid UlsterThe Loup2,584149287432007030681,639
Mid UlsterTobermore2,496150128541006990631,581
Mid UlsterTown Parks East2,558130229494007050621,620
Mid UlsterValley2,517116178205001,0390561,594
Mid UlsterWashing Bay2,504124288209009050591,585
 Total70,4483,9435,9579,2730023,68201,76144,616

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


Go back to home page.

© 2020 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (07-Jan-2020 16:36, Py3L, sc331)