Ulster Mid: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Ulster Mid: Overview

 Prediction: SF hold 

MP at 2019: Francie Molloy  (SF)
County/Area: Tyrone (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 70,449
Turnout: 63.3%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
SF20,47345.9%45.9%
DUP10,93624.5%24.5%
SDLP6,38414.3%14.3%
Alliance3,5267.9%7.9%
UUP2,6115.9%5.9%
OTH6901.5%1.4%
SF Majority9,53721.4%Pred Maj 21.4%
Chance of
winning
SF
90%
DUP
9%
SDLP
1%
Alliance
0%
UUP
0%
OTH
0%

Ulster Mid : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Ulster Mid constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2017SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2015SFDUPCON
EU Leave %40%44%52%
British Identity26%40%29%
Good Health49%48%48%
UK Born95%93%87%
Good Education32%36%39%
Good Job41%47%51%
High SEC56%57%51%
Average Age45.847.248.3
ABC1 Class35%46%53%

Ulster Mid ranks #548 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Ulster Mid: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Ulster Mid

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Ulster Mid.

Ulster MidActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Mid UlsterArdboe2,587SFSF8528115812209570361,639
Mid UlsterBallygawley428SFSF21575022012001271
Mid UlsterBallymaguigan2,717SFSF1292952231490920051,721
Mid UlsterBellaghy2,629SFSF9332215111209740121,664
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield725SFSF388811139018101458
Mid UlsterCastledawson2,502SFSF1291803482180701071,583
Mid UlsterCoagh2,284SFSF1232233641270604061,447
Mid UlsterCoalisland North2,479SFSF12325115714408600361,571
Mid UlsterCoalisland South2,751SFSF7428717112201,0480401,742
Mid UlsterCookstown East2,214SFSF12116343413005390141,401
Mid UlsterCookstown South2,245SFSF11127115212607320311,423
Mid UlsterCookstown West2,490SFSF13717048215306070271,576
Mid UlsterCoolshinny2,643DUPDUP711419101060441051,674
Mid UlsterDonaghmore2,591SFSF14023920015908660381,642
Mid UlsterDraperstown2,135SFSF472671208008150221,351
Mid UlsterGlebe2,599DUPDUP23190916790430071,645
Mid UlsterKillyman394UUPDUP2226972707207251
Mid UlsterKillymeal206UUPDUP1217411903803130
Mid UlsterLissan2,442DUPDUP881048301110409051,547
Mid UlsterLoughry2,040DUPDUP11411745512804530221,289
Mid UlsterLower Glenshane2,316SFSF213191347408880311,467
Mid UlsterMaghera2,309SFSF402232139208620341,464
Mid UlsterOaklands2,303SFSF1222403161270646071,458
Mid UlsterPomeroy2,568SFSF12730819114208300301,628
Mid UlsterStewartstown2,174SFSF12611641114605440351,378
Mid UlsterSwatragh2,430SFSF323211448509250341,541
Mid UlsterTamlaght O'Crilly2,536SFSF10718040413707420351,605
Mid UlsterThe Loup2,713DUPDUP40184943930448091,717
Mid UlsterTobermore2,491SFSF1341495221380630051,578
Mid UlsterTown Parks East2,453DUPDUP281108759204190301,554
Mid UlsterValley2,486SFSF6322527711008640351,574
Mid UlsterWashing Bay2,568SFSF8433214911809100351,628
 Total70,448SFSF2,6256,39610,9493,527020,475064544,617

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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