Warwick and Leamington: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Warwick and Leamington: Overview

 Prediction: LAB hold 

MP at 2019: Matt Western  (LAB)
County/Area: Warwickshire (West Midlands)
Electorate: 76,373
Turnout: 71.0%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB23,71843.8%47.2%
CON22,92942.3%41.0%
LIB4,9959.2%5.3%
Green1,5362.8%3.5%
Brexit8071.5%1.0%
OTH2200.4%2.0%
LAB Majority7891.5%Pred Maj 6.2%
Chance of
winning
LAB
64%
CON
36%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
Brexit
0%
OTH
0%

Warwick and Leamington : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Warwick and Leamington constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat West MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABCONCON
Party Winner 2017LABCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position6° Right3° Right
National Position10° Glo7° Nat
Social Position7° Lib6° Con
TribeKind Yuppies
EU Leave %42%59%52%
British Identity33%29%29%
Good Health50%45%48%
UK Born87%89%87%
Good Education52%36%39%
Good Job61%48%51%
High SEC56%46%51%
Average Age46.348.648.3
ABC1 Class65%49%54%

Warwick and Leamington ranks #530 for "Leave", #256 for "Right", #526 for "National" and #534 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Warwick and Leamington: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Warwick and Leamington

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Warwick and Leamington.

Warwick and LeamingtonActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WarwickBishop's Tachbrook3,494CONCON1,3479148616650512,479
WarwickBudbrooke5,116CONCON2,1661,144109491090553,632
WarwickCubbington and Leek Wootton16CONCON740000011
WarwickLeamington Brunswick6,981LABLAB1,5962,960123401610754,955
WarwickLeamington Clarendon7,469LABLAB1,7612,7074454222101275,303
WarwickLeamington Lillington7,696LABLAB1,9972,5964844620101405,464
WarwickLeamington Milverton7,065CONLAB2,0722,0864901620601445,014
WarwickLeamington Willes7,197LABLAB1,5943,045158441810875,109
WarwickWarwick All Saints and Woodloes7,402CONLAB2,2932,450178941590795,253
WarwickWarwick Aylesford5,133CONCON1,6501,608190171180623,645
WarwickWarwick Myton and Heathcote5,792CONCON1,9471,677249131450794,110
WarwickWarwick Saltisford5,467LABLAB1,5631,856199581340713,881
WarwickWhitnash7,535LABLAB2,2402,5611519117701295,349
 Total76,363LABLAB22,23325,6082,8625261,87701,09954,205

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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