Warwickshire North: Seat Details

Warwickshire North: Overview

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:Craig Tracey  (CON)
County/Area:Warwickshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:70,271
Turnout:65.3%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON30,24965.9%60.6%
LAB12,29326.8%30.7%
LIB2,0694.5%2.7%
Green1,3032.8%4.2%
OTH00.0%1.8%
CON Majority17,95639.1%29.9%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
CON
96%
LAB
4%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Warwickshire North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Warwickshire North constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat West MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position3° Right3° Right
National Position16° Nat7° Nat
Social Position9° Con6° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %67%59%52%
British Identity23%29%29%
Good Health44%45%48%
UK Born96%89%87%
Good Education30%36%39%
Good Job45%48%51%
High SEC44%46%51%
Average Age50.048.648.3
ABC1 Class46%49%54%

Warwickshire North ranks #48 for "Leave", #294 for "Right", #31 for "National" and #51 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Warwickshire North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Warwickshire North

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Warwickshire North.

Warwickshire NorthActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
North WarwickshireAtherstone Central2,867CONCON9187245501430341,874
North WarwickshireAtherstone North2,898CONCON1,123608560740341,895
North WarwickshireAtherstone South and Mancetter2,964CONCON1,184590550740351,938
North WarwickshireBaddesley and Grendon3,272CONCON1,403568490800362,136
North WarwickshireColeshill North2,510CONCON948551470660291,641
North WarwickshireColeshill South2,789CONCON1,187486480700321,823
North WarwickshireCurdworth2,766CONCON1,423252350670301,807
North WarwickshireDordon2,270CONCON777589370550261,484
North WarwickshireFillongley2,732CONCON1,373279370680301,787
North WarwickshireHurley and Wood End2,999CONCON1,112691470760341,960
North WarwickshireKingsbury2,990CONCON1,397399470760341,953
North WarwickshireNewton Regis and Warton2,853CONCON1,222496430720321,865
North WarwickshirePolesworth East2,853CONCON1,004700520750331,864
North WarwickshirePolesworth West2,624CONCON994569490720311,715
North WarwickshireWater Orton2,807CONCON1,331343530740331,834
Nuneaton and BedworthBede5,159CONCON1,7451,31710901380623,371
Nuneaton and BedworthExhall6,031CONCON2,2381,31011602050713,940
Nuneaton and BedworthHeath5,751CONCON2,1631,26710801520673,757
Nuneaton and BedworthPoplar5,686CONCON1,9981,4089501500653,716
Nuneaton and BedworthSlough5,449CONCON2,27996610401470643,560
 Total70,270CONCON27,81914,1131,24201,934081245,920

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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