Wealden: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Wealden: Overview

 Predicted winner: CON 
 Acual winner: CON 

MP at 2019: Nus Ghani  (CON)
County/Area: East Sussex (South East)
Electorate: 83,038
Turnout: 73.3%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON37,04360.8%59.8%
LIB11,38818.7%17.0%
LAB9,37715.4%19.4%
Green3,0995.1%3.9%
CON Majority25,65542.1%Pred Maj 40.4%
Chance of
winning
CON
97%
LIB
1%
LAB
2%
Green
0%

Wealden : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Wealden constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South EastAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position15° Right11° Right
National Position8° Nat3° Nat
Social Position4° Con1° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %53%52%52%
British Identity27%29%29%
Good Health49%49%48%
UK Born93%88%88%
Good Education43%43%39%
Good Job57%56%51%
High SEC61%57%51%
Average Age52.549.248.5
ABC1 Class61%60%54%

Wealden ranks #328 for "Leave", #50 for "Right", #192 for "National" and #246 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Wealden: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Wealden: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Wealden

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Wealden at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Wealden. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

WealdenActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
OTH
Votes
WealdenBuxted and Maresfield20154,23600001,168
WealdenChiddingly and East Hoathly20151,193349030600
WealdenCrowborough East20153,1940885000
WealdenCrowborough Jarvis Brook2015414020900628
WealdenCrowborough North20153,3856380001,087
WealdenCrowborough St Johns20151,1690000366
WealdenCrowborough West20152,74642501,062427501
WealdenDanehill / Fletching / Nutley20153,27042360653700
WealdenForest Row20152,486045201,9300
WealdenFramfield20151,4032830000
WealdenFrant / Withyham20153,10900524836795
WealdenHailsham Central and North20153,29002,367000
WealdenHailsham East2015-100000
WealdenHailsham South and West20155,483003,84100
WealdenHartfield20151,0650490000
WealdenHellingly20153,32102,39800608
WealdenHoram2015-100000
WealdenMayfield20151,2783270000
WealdenRotherfield2015-100000
WealdenUckfield Central2015976046900265
WealdenUckfield New Town201564603332682220
WealdenUckfield North20151,7444301,2826790329
WealdenUckfield Ridgewood20151,0372302623190226
WealdenWadhurst20153,17645105327370

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

WealdenEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WealdenBuxted and Maresfield4,4782,1573905870150003,284
WealdenChiddingly and East Hoathly2,6601,215303339093001,950
WealdenCrowborough East4,3721,9515155870154003,207
WealdenCrowborough Jarvis Brook2,178891318311078001,598
WealdenCrowborough North4,7122,1855125970162003,456
WealdenCrowborough St Johns1,858898150255059001,362
WealdenCrowborough West4,0641,8534195310178002,981
WealdenDanehill / Fletching / Nutley4,3942,0164066470154003,223
WealdenForest Row4,2831,7125126970221003,142
WealdenFramfield2,2511,063218291078001,650
WealdenFrant / Withyham4,3271,8824486420202003,174
WealdenHailsham Central and North4,6072,0255286660159003,378
WealdenHailsham East2,3661,059378221078001,736
WealdenHailsham South and West6,9553,2728977050228005,102
WealdenHartfield2,173965196356077001,594
WealdenHellingly4,9282,1375417620175003,615
WealdenHoram2,1811,072197260071001,600
WealdenMayfield2,120965226289075001,555
WealdenRotherfield1,974937173270067001,447
WealdenUckfield Central2,4491,040285383088001,796
WealdenUckfield New Town2,2778903413370102001,670
WealdenUckfield North4,5201,8526426630159003,316
WealdenUckfield Ridgewood2,6321,139319378095001,931
WealdenWadhurst4,2781,8634666130195003,137
 Total83,03737,0399,38011,38703,0980060,904

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Wealden

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Wealden.

WealdenPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WealdenBuxted and Maresfield4,4782,1235145330114003,284
WealdenChiddingly and East Hoathly2,6601,195377308071001,951
WealdenCrowborough East4,3721,9176395330117003,206
WealdenCrowborough Jarvis Brook2,178874382282059001,597
WealdenCrowborough North4,7122,1496425420123003,456
WealdenCrowborough St Johns1,858884202232045001,363
WealdenCrowborough West4,0641,8225424820135002,981
WealdenDanehill / Fletching / Nutley4,3941,9825365880117003,223
WealdenForest Row4,2831,6796566390168003,142
WealdenFramfield2,2511,046281264059001,650
WealdenFrant / Withyham4,3271,8495885840154003,175
WealdenHailsham Central and North4,6071,9906636050121003,379
WealdenHailsham East2,3661,041435201059001,736
WealdenHailsham South and West6,9553,2191,0706400173005,102
WealdenHartfield2,173948260327059001,594
WealdenHellingly4,9282,0996876960133003,615
WealdenHoram2,1811,055255236054001,600
WealdenMayfield2,120949287262057001,555
WealdenRotherfield1,974922229245051001,447
WealdenUckfield Central2,4491,021358350067001,796
WealdenUckfield New Town2,277873414306078001,671
WealdenUckfield North4,5201,8177766020121003,316
WealdenUckfield Ridgewood2,6321,119397343072001,931
WealdenWadhurst4,2781,8306025570148003,137
 Total83,03736,40311,79210,35702,3550060,907

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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