Weaver Vale: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Weaver Vale: Overview

 Prediction: LAB hold 

MP at 2019: Mike Amesbury  (LAB)
County/Area: Cheshire (North West)
Electorate: 70,551
Turnout: 71.9%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB22,77244.9%48.2%
CON22,21043.8%42.4%
LIB3,3006.5%3.4%
Brexit1,3802.7%1.8%
Green1,0512.1%2.7%
OTH00.0%1.5%
LAB Majority5621.1%Pred Maj 5.8%
Chance of
winning
LAB
63%
CON
37%
LIB
0%
Brexit
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Weaver Vale : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Weaver Vale constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat North WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position4° Left
National Position1° Nat1° Nat
Social Position1° Con2° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %51%54%52%
British Identity28%28%29%
Good Health49%47%48%
UK Born96%92%87%
Good Education40%37%39%
Good Job52%49%51%
High SEC53%48%51%
Average Age49.648.548.3
ABC1 Class53%50%54%

Weaver Vale ranks #403 for "Leave", #340 for "Right", #363 for "National" and #338 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Weaver Vale: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Weaver Vale

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Weaver Vale.

Weaver ValeActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Cheshire West and ChesterDavenham, Moulton and Kingsmead3,538CONCON1,4178989634570412,543
Cheshire West and ChesterFrodsham7,376CONCON2,7492,047177701790785,300
Cheshire West and ChesterHartford and Greenbank6,554CONCON2,4461,788134682110644,711
Cheshire West and ChesterHelsby4,102CONCON1,4171,22482481380412,950
Cheshire West and ChesterMarbury813CONCON33019918101909585
Cheshire West and ChesterNorthwich Leftwich3,561LABLAB9401,3949844410432,560
Cheshire West and ChesterNorthwich Winnington and Castle6,444LABLAB1,7442,51314470940674,632
Cheshire West and ChesterNorthwich Witton3,611LABLAB7231,6399549470432,596
Cheshire West and ChesterRudheath372CONLAB11813075404268
Cheshire West and ChesterSandstone2,422CONCON9735657828650321,741
Cheshire West and ChesterWeaver and Cuddington6,746CONCON2,5951,78420581980864,849
Cheshire West and ChesterWinsford Over and Verdin905CONLAB240343251318011650
HaltonBeechwood and Heath2,818LABLAB755973102101420502,023
HaltonDaresbury, Moore and Sandymoor4,618CONCON1,6861,314103481200483,319
HaltonGrange576LABLAB1112601317608415
HaltonHalton Castle235LABLAB4511633302172
HaltonHalton Lea5,272LABLAB9272,6615761440393,789
HaltonNorton North5,658LABLAB1,2902,41715078630684,066
HaltonNorton South and Preston Brook4,930LABLAB1,0042,194114701050553,542
 Total70,551LABLAB21,51024,4591,7018981,354078950,711

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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