Wellingborough: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Wellingborough: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Peter Bone  (CON)
County/Area: Northamptonshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 80,764
Turnout: 64.3%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON32,27762.2%60.9%
LAB13,73726.5%29.2%
LIB4,0787.9%4.5%
Green1,8213.5%4.0%
OTH00.0%1.3%
CON Majority18,54035.7%Pred Maj 31.7%
Chance of
winning
CON
98%
LAB
2%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Wellingborough : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Wellingborough constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat East MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position10° Right4° Right
National Position15° Nat7° Nat
Social Position7° Con4° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %64%59%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health44%45%48%
UK Born89%90%87%
Good Education31%37%39%
Good Job46%48%51%
High SEC46%47%51%
Average Age49.048.948.3
ABC1 Class46%50%54%

Wellingborough ranks #90 for "Leave", #156 for "Right", #45 for "National" and #93 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Wellingborough: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Wellingborough

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Wellingborough.

WellingboroughActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East NorthamptonshireHigham Ferrers Chichele3,283CONCON1,5193861020740292,110
East NorthamptonshireHigham Ferrers Lancaster3,815CONCON1,8733751000750292,452
East NorthamptonshireRushden Bates3,843CONCON1,6695741120840322,471
East NorthamptonshireRushden Hayden5,986CONCON2,1401,32019401410543,849
East NorthamptonshireRushden Pemberton4,932CONCON1,90796414601110423,170
East NorthamptonshireRushden Sartoris3,416CONCON1,4964861090730302,194
East NorthamptonshireRushden Spencer4,963CONCON2,20368515101100433,192
WellingboroughBozeat1,802CONCON794256530400151,158
WellingboroughBrickhill3,104CONCON1,1476099501170271,995
WellingboroughCroyland4,678CONCON1,5521,10812501850373,007
WellingboroughFinedon3,614CONCON1,5455621090770312,324
WellingboroughGreat Doddington and Wilby1,603CONCON714212520380141,030
WellingboroughHarrowden and Sywell1,957CONCON955193530410151,257
WellingboroughHatton3,100CONCON1,206599960660271,994
WellingboroughIrchester4,594CONCON1,6471,02614201000402,955
WellingboroughIsebrook1,484CONCON46134944087013954
WellingboroughQueensway4,668LABLAB1,2481,39712701900372,999
WellingboroughRedwell4,996CONCON2,28363614101120413,213
WellingboroughRixon4,740CONCON1,6741,1181200980363,046
WellingboroughSwanspool3,177CONCON1,022828990650282,042
WellingboroughVictoria3,748CONLAB1,0401,1259001280272,410
WellingboroughWollaston3,262CONCON1,528373970720272,097
 Total80,765CONCON31,62315,1812,35702,084067451,919

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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