Weston-Super-Mare: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Weston-Super-Mare: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: John Penrose  (CON)
County/Area: Bristol area (South West)
Electorate: 82,526
Turnout: 67.4%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON31,98357.5%56.2%
LAB14,86226.7%31.7%
LIB6,93512.5%5.6%
Green1,8343.3%4.2%
OTH00.0%2.3%
CON Majority17,12130.8%Pred Maj 24.5%
Chance of
winning
CON
94%
LAB
6%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Weston-Super-Mare : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Weston-Super-Mare constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position8° Right7° Right
National Position10° Nat4° Nat
Social Position4° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %59%53%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health43%47%48%
UK Born94%92%87%
Good Education36%41%39%
Good Job48%50%51%
High SEC50%52%51%
Average Age51.350.448.3
ABC1 Class49%54%54%

Weston-Super-Mare ranks #197 for "Leave", #214 for "Right", #151 for "National" and #233 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Weston-Super-Mare: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Weston-Super-Mare

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Weston-Super-Mare.

Weston-Super-MareActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
North SomersetBanwell and Winscombe6,183CONCON2,71091414403330674,168
North SomersetBlagdon and Churchill3,167CONCON1,3294322020950762,134
North SomersetCongresbury and Puxton3,194CONCON1,1856401680920692,154
North SomersetHutton and Locking5,992CONCON2,72997713501340644,039
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Central6,063CONCON1,9621,446346019101414,086
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Hillside6,453CONCON2,3601,160472020301544,349
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Kewstoke6,889CONCON2,9841,17222101680974,642
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Mid Worle3,233CONCON1,1187231740930712,179
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Milton6,937CONCON2,2181,99919601730884,674
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare North Worle6,162CONCON2,3821,169299017801244,152
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare South6,004LABLAB1,6752,03913201380634,047
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare South Worle6,497CONCON2,4721,47419301520864,377
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Uphill6,459CONCON2,5571,32221101710934,354
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Winterstoke5,767CONCON2,1311,43012901370613,888
North SomersetWick St Lawrence and St Georges3,527CONCON1,465728730770352,378
 Total82,527CONCON31,27717,6253,09502,33501,28955,621

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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