Wiltshire North: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Wiltshire North: Overview

 Predicted winner: CON 
 Acual winner: CON 

MP at 2019: James Gray  (CON)
County/Area: Wiltshire (South West)
Electorate: 73,283
Turnout: 74.7%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON32,37359.1%56.7%
LIB14,74726.9%23.8%
LAB5,69910.4%16.3%
Green1,9393.5%3.3%
CON Majority17,62632.2%Pred Maj 32.9%
Chance of
winning
CON
93%
LIB
5%
LAB
2%
Green
0%

Wiltshire North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Wiltshire North constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position17° Right8° Right
National Position4° Nat4° Nat
Social Position1° Con
TribeKind Yuppies
EU Leave %50%53%52%
British Identity31%27%29%
Good Health52%47%48%
UK Born93%92%88%
Good Education45%40%39%
Good Job58%50%51%
High SEC61%52%51%
Average Age50.650.548.5
ABC1 Class63%54%54%

Wiltshire North ranks #410 for "Leave", #24 for "Right", #310 for "National" and #349 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Wiltshire North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Wiltshire North: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Wiltshire North

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Wiltshire North at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Wiltshire North. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Wiltshire NorthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
OTH
Votes
WiltshireBox and Colerne201365813856900164
WiltshireBrinkworth20138347920229400
WiltshireBy Brook2013820015826400
WiltshireCalne Central2013391041027400
WiltshireCalne Chilvester and Abberd2013432022926900
WiltshireCalne North2013274031920500
WiltshireCalne Rural201367001272770344
WiltshireCalne South and Cherhill2013619037533400
WiltshireChippenham Cepen Park and Redlands201351417710223600
WiltshireChippenham Hardens and England201322112736826200
WiltshireCorsham Pickwick201342425916133900
WiltshireCorsham Without and Box Hill201382517519026700
WiltshireCricklade and Latton20137020917000
WiltshireKington2013953024730900
WiltshireLyneham2013617013429500
WiltshireMalmesbury201346013078525400
WiltshireMinety201385712515848800
WiltshirePurton20137050000291
WiltshireRoyal Wootton Bassett East20138870315000
WiltshireRoyal Wootton Bassett North2013484030626200
WiltshireRoyal Wootton Bassett South201360210164728000
WiltshireSherston20131,037158195000

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Wiltshire NorthEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WiltshireBox and Colerne4,3221,7803101,0190121003,230
WiltshireBrinkworth3,7031,735232709091002,767
WiltshireBy Brook3,7381,752237712093002,794
WiltshireCalne Central3,4521,397355730098002,580
WiltshireCalne Chilvester and Abberd4,2041,8014527720116003,141
WiltshireCalne North3,9631,5894098530111002,962
WiltshireCalne Rural3,6181,710236666093002,705
WiltshireCalne South and Cherhill3,9001,7222768130104002,915
WiltshireChippenham Cepen Park and Redlands6628812020050
WiltshireChippenham Hardens and England22835000016
WiltshireCorsham Pickwick2258833410600168
WiltshireCorsham Without and Box Hill1,876831164354053001,402
WiltshireCricklade and Latton4,1261,7282979470112003,084
WiltshireKington4,0791,9032617820102003,048
WiltshireLyneham4,5282,1933227530115003,383
WiltshireMalmesbury4,4791,7284141,0750130003,347
WiltshireMinety3,9271,836255745098002,934
WiltshirePurton3,5271,743223588081002,635
WiltshireRoyal Wootton Bassett East3,6561,654242743094002,733
WiltshireRoyal Wootton Bassett North3,6771,5993477010101002,748
WiltshireRoyal Wootton Bassett South4,2611,7293589750121003,183
WiltshireSherston3,9371,823265756098002,942
 Total73,28632,3775,69914,75101,9400054,767

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Wiltshire North

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Wiltshire North.

Wiltshire NorthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WiltshireBox and Colerne4,3221,7014999180111003,229
WiltshireBrinkworth3,7031,668393622084002,767
WiltshireBy Brook3,7381,684400625086002,795
WiltshireCalne Central3,4521,334506649090002,579
WiltshireCalne Chilvester and Abberd4,2041,7256366740107003,142
WiltshireCalne North3,9631,5175837600102002,962
WiltshireCalne Rural3,6181,644394581086002,705
WiltshireCalne South and Cherhill3,9001,651447722096002,916
WiltshireChippenham Cepen Park and Redlands66271110020050
WiltshireChippenham Hardens and England22844000016
WiltshireCorsham Pickwick2258443360600169
WiltshireCorsham Without and Box Hill1,876797246310049001,402
WiltshireCricklade and Latton4,1261,6534788510103003,085
WiltshireKington4,0791,829439687094003,049
WiltshireLyneham4,5282,1115196470106003,383
WiltshireMalmesbury4,4791,6466119700120003,347
WiltshireMinety3,9271,765426653090002,934
WiltshirePurton3,5271,679376506074002,635
WiltshireRoyal Wootton Bassett East3,6561,587402658086002,733
WiltshireRoyal Wootton Bassett North3,6771,532508615093002,748
WiltshireRoyal Wootton Bassett South4,2611,6515458750111003,182
WiltshireSherston3,9371,751437664090002,942
 Total73,28631,0448,90313,03701,7860054,770

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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