Wiltshire North: Seat Details

Wiltshire North: Overview

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:James Gray  (CON)
County/Area:Wiltshire (South West)
Electorate:73,280
Turnout:74.7%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON32,37359.1%53.9%
LIB14,74726.9%16.5%
LAB5,69910.4%19.1%
Green1,9393.5%6.6%
OTH00.0%3.9%
CON Majority17,62632.2%34.7%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
CON
99%
LIB
0%
LAB
1%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Wiltshire North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Wiltshire North constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position17° Right7° Right
National Position4° Nat4° Nat
Social Position1° Con
TribeKind Yuppies
EU Leave %50%53%52%
British Identity31%27%29%
Good Health52%47%48%
UK Born93%92%87%
Good Education45%41%39%
Good Job58%50%51%
High SEC61%52%51%
Average Age50.650.448.3
ABC1 Class63%54%54%

Wiltshire North ranks #410 for "Leave", #24 for "Right", #310 for "National" and #349 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Wiltshire North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Wiltshire North

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Wiltshire North.

Wiltshire NorthActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WiltshireBox and Colerne3,897CONCON1,405438774018101142,912
WiltshireBrinkworth3,728CONCON1,637403456018201092,787
WiltshireBy Brook3,614CONCON1,711411239023901012,701
WiltshireCalne Central3,729CONCON1,077684737018001092,787
WiltshireCalne Chilvester and Abberd3,924CONCON1,313851465018901152,933
WiltshireCalne North3,555CONCON1,140723519016901042,655
WiltshireCalne Rural3,912CONCON1,820515284018901142,922
WiltshireCalne South and Cherhill3,764CONCON1,598581337018601102,812
WiltshireChippenham Cepen Park and Redlands41CONCON1585020131
WiltshireChippenham Hardens and England41CONCON1279020131
WiltshireCorsham Pickwick57CONCON171012020243
WiltshireCorsham Without and Box Hill1,953CONCON89123612401550531,459
WiltshireCricklade and Latton3,897CONCON1,389500724018501142,912
WiltshireKington4,151CONCON1,919547319019401213,100
WiltshireLyneham3,473CONCON1,72141122501430962,596
WiltshireMalmesbury4,377CONCON1,348648933021401283,271
WiltshireMinety3,894CONCON1,870460280018601142,910
WiltshirePurton4,785CONCON2,180595442021901403,576
WiltshireRoyal Wootton Bassett East3,826CONCON1,722570270018501112,858
WiltshireRoyal Wootton Bassett North3,568CONCON1,233660505016301042,665
WiltshireRoyal Wootton Bassett South5,086CONCON1,6557341,019024501493,802
WiltshireSherston4,012CONCON1,820486385018801172,996
 Total73,284CONCON29,49310,4789,06303,59802,12754,759

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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