Witney: Seat Details

Witney: Overview

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:Charlie Maynard  (LIB)
County/Area:Oxfordshire (South East)
Electorate:75,448
Turnout:67.0%

Party2024
Votes
2024
Share
Pred
Votes
LIB20,83241.2%41.2%
CON16,49332.6%32.6%
Reform6,30712.5%12.5%
LAB4,7739.4%9.4%
Green1,6613.3%3.3%
OTH5181.0%1.0%
LIB Majority4,3398.6%8.6%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
LIB
100%
CON
0%
Reform
0%
LAB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Witney : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Witney constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South EastAll GB
Party Winner 2024LIBCONLAB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Economic Position16° Right11° Right
National Position3° Nat
Social Position1° Con
TribeKind Yuppies
EU Leave %47%52%52%
Average Age50.850.449.5
Good Education56%53%49%
Employed64%59%58%
Homeowner68%68%63%
Car owner90%84%77%
Married51%48%45%
Ethnic White95%86%83%
Christian54%50%50%
ABC1 Class64%62%56%
Gross Household Income£54,497£50,167£42,397
Deprivation43%48%52%
Average House Price£416,118£409,816£313,528

Witney ranks #468 for "Leave", #43 for "Economic Right Position", #381 for "National Position" and #390 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Witney: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Witney

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Witney.

WitneyActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2024
GE24
Winner
Pred
Winner
Vale of White HorseFaringdon6,450LIBLIB
Vale of White HorseKingston Bagpuize3,529CONCON
Vale of White HorseThames2,896LIBLIB
Vale of White HorseWatchfield and Shrivenham6,140LIBLIB
West OxfordshireAlvescot and Filkins1,548LIBLIB
West OxfordshireAscott and Shipton1,815LIBLIB
West OxfordshireBampton and Clanfield3,460LIBLIB
West OxfordshireBrize Norton and Shilton1,777CONCON
West OxfordshireBurford1,700CONCON
West OxfordshireCarterton North East4,246CONCON
West OxfordshireCarterton North West4,146LIBLIB
West OxfordshireCarterton South3,905CONCON
West OxfordshireDucklington1,922CONCON
West OxfordshireHailey, Minster Lovell and Leafield3,535LIBLIB
West OxfordshireMilton-under-Wychwood1,890CONCON
West OxfordshireStandlake, Aston and Stanton Harcourt3,741CONCON
West OxfordshireWitney Central4,156LIBLIB
West OxfordshireWitney East6,133LIBLIB
West OxfordshireWitney North3,334LIBLIB
West OxfordshireWitney South5,107LIBLIB
West OxfordshireWitney West4,019LIBLIB
 Total75,449LIBLIB

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2024.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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