Witney: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Witney: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Robert Courts  (CON)
County/Area: Oxfordshire (South East)
Electorate: 83,845
Turnout: 73.1%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON33,85655.2%54.0%
LIB18,67930.5%19.5%
LAB8,77014.3%21.8%
Green00.0%1.3%
OTH00.0%3.5%
CON Majority15,17724.8%Pred Maj 32.2%
Chance of
winning
CON
97%
LIB
1%
LAB
2%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Witney : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Witney constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South EastAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position15° Right11° Right
National Position3° Nat
Social Position1° Con
TribeKind Yuppies
EU Leave %46%52%52%
British Identity30%29%29%
Good Health52%49%48%
UK Born92%88%87%
Good Education45%43%39%
Good Job57%56%51%
High SEC59%57%51%
Average Age50.349.148.3
ABC1 Class61%60%54%

Witney ranks #471 for "Leave", #51 for "Right", #381 for "National" and #383 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Witney: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Witney

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Witney.

WitneyActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
West OxfordshireAlvescot and Filkins1,433CONCON6341931710140361,048
West OxfordshireAscott and Shipton1,684CONCON6201613910170431,232
West OxfordshireBampton and Clanfield3,204CONCON1,4253804240320812,342
West OxfordshireBrize Norton and Shilton1,644CONCON8071891470160421,201
West OxfordshireBurford1,576CONCON7941631400160401,153
West OxfordshireCarterton North East3,918CONCON1,8195723360390992,865
West OxfordshireCarterton North West3,846CONCON1,7485413880380982,813
West OxfordshireCarterton South3,622CONCON1,6765223230360922,649
West OxfordshireChadlington and Churchill1,609CONCON8001781430160411,178
West OxfordshireCharlbury and Finstock3,064LIBCON9723787830300782,241
West OxfordshireChipping Norton5,230CONCON1,6811,14981105101333,825
West OxfordshireDucklington1,780CONCON8032401960180451,302
West OxfordshireEynsham and Cassington4,815LIBCON1,4846101,25704701223,520
West OxfordshireFreeland and Hanborough3,686CONCON1,4537503630360932,695
West OxfordshireHailey, Minster Lovell and Leafield3,280CONCON1,3393925530320832,399
West OxfordshireKingham, Rollright and Enstone3,251CONCON1,4884093660320822,377
West OxfordshireMilton-under-Wychwood1,751CONCON8452061680170441,280
West OxfordshireNorth Leigh1,610CONCON7402281530160411,178
West OxfordshireStandlake, Aston and Stanton Harcourt3,466CONCON1,6144373610340882,534
West OxfordshireStonesfield and Tackley3,392CONCON1,1913847860330862,480
West OxfordshireThe Bartons1,569CONCON5961593370150401,147
West OxfordshireWitney Central3,855CONCON1,3399543890380982,818
West OxfordshireWitney East5,687CONCON1,9441,34766805601444,159
West OxfordshireWitney North3,091CONCON1,1386333790300782,258
West OxfordshireWitney South4,740CONCON1,6371,16849304701203,465
West OxfordshireWitney West3,714CONCON1,4055995800370942,715
West OxfordshireWoodstock and Bladon3,327CONCON1,0903958300330842,432
 Total83,844CONCON33,08213,33711,936082602,12561,306

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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