Worcestershire Mid: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Worcestershire Mid: Overview

 Predicted winner: CON 
 Acual winner: CON 

MP at 2019: Nigel Huddleston  (CON)
County/Area: Hereford and Worcestershire (West Midlands)
Electorate: 78,221
Turnout: 71.7%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON37,42666.7%63.8%
LAB9,40816.8%19.3%
LIB6,47411.5%12.6%
Green2,1773.9%3.1%
OTH6381.1%1.2%
CON Majority28,01849.9%Pred Maj 44.4%
Chance of
winning
CON
98%
LAB
1%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Worcestershire Mid : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Worcestershire Mid constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat West MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position14° Right3° Right
National Position13° Nat7° Nat
Social Position8° Con6° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %59%59%52%
British Identity26%28%29%
Good Health46%45%48%
UK Born94%89%88%
Good Education39%35%39%
Good Job52%48%51%
High SEC55%46%51%
Average Age51.848.748.5
ABC1 Class55%49%54%

Worcestershire Mid ranks #190 for "Leave", #70 for "Right", #70 for "National" and #62 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Worcestershire Mid: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Worcestershire Mid: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Worcestershire Mid

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Worcestershire Mid at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Worcestershire Mid. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Worcestershire MidActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
OTH
Votes
WychavonBadsey2015681002790574
WychavonBengeworth20152,584009866870
WychavonBowbrook201587401,019000
WychavonBretforton and Offenham20156550840000
WychavonBroadway and Wickhamford20153,581000684326
WychavonDodderhill20159020445000
WychavonDrakes Broughton2015-100000
WychavonDroitwich Central201548634713032300
WychavonDroitwich East20152,78877553472400
WychavonDroitwich South East20153,6134947426132960
WychavonDroitwich South West20152,3396026636413010
WychavonDroitwich West20151,8801,433003810
WychavonEvesham North20151,68204567026160
WychavonEvesham South20152,6390009030
WychavonFladbury20151,061033802890
WychavonGreat Hampton2015607006242010
WychavonHartlebury2015943020800439
WychavonHarvington and Norton20151,1030003950
WychavonHoneybourne and Pebworth2015-100000
WychavonLittle Hampton20152,253008085340
WychavonLovett and North Claines20153,955082600739
WychavonNorton and Whittington2015-100000
WychavonOmbersley20151,0580329000
WychavonPinvin201560801,129000
WychavonThe Littletons20159510006180
WychavonUpton Snodsbury20151,3400372000

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Worcestershire MidEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WychavonBadsey2,2631,1622331530570191,624
WychavonBengeworth4,4562,13460528901310383,197
WychavonBowbrook2,2781,0622182710660181,635
WychavonBretforton and Offenham2,0951,0142271910550161,503
WychavonBroadway and Wickhamford3,8111,94235929801060302,735
WychavonDodderhill2,0911,0322081890550161,500
WychavonDrakes Broughton1,9791,0321701570480141,421
WychavonDroitwich Central2,1638984191570570211,552
WychavonDroitwich East4,5062,07263636401220393,233
WychavonDroitwich South East4,3082,02943146101340363,091
WychavonDroitwich South West4,0001,77258635701190352,869
WychavonDroitwich West4,4691,79996427901280373,207
WychavonEvesham North4,1791,84468231001250382,999
WychavonEvesham South4,4102,18950530801260363,164
WychavonFladbury2,2521,0722252310700181,616
WychavonGreat Hampton2,0241,0002541240570171,452
WychavonHartlebury2,2161,1042102010580161,589
WychavonHarvington and Norton2,1601,0912121680620161,549
WychavonHoneybourne and Pebworth2,0801,0821941500510161,493
WychavonLittle Hampton4,3132,11653528501220373,095
WychavonLovett and North Claines4,5432,25540944601160343,260
WychavonNorton and Whittington2,3971,2062182160630181,721
WychavonOmbersley1,9499681791850500161,398
WychavonPinvin2,4641,1632582590680201,768
WychavonThe Littletons2,6451,3042872070790201,897
WychavonUpton Snodsbury2,1721,0851852180540161,558
 Total78,22337,4279,4096,47402,179063756,126

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Worcestershire Mid

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Worcestershire Mid.

Worcestershire MidPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WychavonBadsey2,2631,1152741700460191,624
WychavonBengeworth4,4562,04168832301060393,197
WychavonBowbrook2,2781,0142602890530181,634
WychavonBretforton and Offenham2,0959702652070450161,503
WychavonBroadway and Wickhamford3,8111,8624293270860302,734
WychavonDodderhill2,0919882462050450161,500
WychavonDrakes Broughton1,9799912061720390141,422
WychavonDroitwich Central2,1638534591730460211,552
WychavonDroitwich East4,5061,9787193980990403,234
WychavonDroitwich South East4,3081,93951249501090373,092
WychavonDroitwich South West4,0001,6886613880960352,868
WychavonDroitwich West4,4691,7051,04731301040383,207
WychavonEvesham North4,1791,75676034201010392,998
WychavonEvesham South4,4102,09758734201020373,165
WychavonFladbury2,2521,0252682490570181,617
WychavonGreat Hampton2,0249582911390460171,451
WychavonHartlebury2,2161,0582502180470161,589
WychavonHarvington and Norton2,1601,0462521850500161,549
WychavonHoneybourne and Pebworth2,0801,0382321660410161,493
WychavonLittle Hampton4,3132,0266153180990383,096
WychavonLovett and North Claines4,5432,1604924800940353,261
WychavonNorton and Whittington2,3971,1562622340510181,721
WychavonOmbersley1,9499272142000400161,397
WychavonPinvin2,4641,1113032780550201,767
WychavonThe Littletons2,6451,2493372270640201,897
WychavonUpton Snodsbury2,1721,0402242340440161,558
 Total78,22335,79110,8537,07201,765064556,126

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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