Worcestershire West: Seat Details

Worcestershire West: Overview

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:Harriett Baldwin  (CON)
County/Area:Hereford and Worcestershire (West Midlands)
Electorate:79,242
Turnout:69.0%

Party2024
Votes
2024
Share
Pred
Votes
CON19,78336.2%36.2%
LIB13,23624.2%24.2%
LAB8,33515.2%15.2%
Reform7,90214.4%14.5%
Green5,0689.3%9.3%
OTH3630.7%0.6%
CON Majority6,54712.0%12.0%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
CON
100%
LIB
0%
LAB
0%
Reform
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Worcestershire West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Worcestershire West constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat West MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2024CONLABLAB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Economic Position12° Right3° Right
National Position7° Nat7° Nat
Social Position4° Con6° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %52%59%52%
Average Age55.549.849.5
Good Education54%46%49%
Employed53%55%58%
Homeowner73%65%63%
Car owner89%79%77%
Married52%45%45%
Ethnic White97%77%83%
Christian58%49%50%
ABC1 Class62%51%56%
Gross Household Income£43,257£39,700£42,397
Deprivation47%54%52%
Average House Price£319,730£231,981£313,528

Worcestershire West ranks #350 for "Leave", #130 for "Economic Right Position", #211 for "National Position" and #222 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Worcestershire West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Worcestershire West

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Worcestershire West.

Worcestershire WestActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2024
GE24
Winner
Pred
Winner
Malvern HillsAlfrick, Leigh and Rushwick3,976CONCON
Malvern HillsBaldwin3,927CONCON
Malvern HillsBarnards Green6,604LIBLIB
Malvern HillsBroadheath1,548CONCON
Malvern HillsCastlemorton, Welland and Wells4,343CONCON
Malvern HillsGreat Malvern3,982LIBLIB
Malvern HillsHallow and Holt2,266CONCON
Malvern HillsKempsey4,013CONCON
Malvern HillsLindridge2,181CONCON
Malvern HillsLink5,828LIBLIB
Malvern HillsLongdon1,983CONCON
Malvern HillsMartley2,408CONCON
Malvern HillsPickersleigh2,044LIBLIB
Malvern HillsPowick and the Hanleys4,405LIBLIB
Malvern HillsTenbury3,727CONCON
Malvern HillsUpper Howsell2,231CONCON
Malvern HillsUpton and Ripple4,045CONCON
Malvern HillsWest4,239GreenGreen
WychavonBredon2,767CONCON
WychavonBredon Hill2,475LIBLIB
WychavonBroadway, Sedgeberrow and Childswickham1,070CONCON
WychavonEckington2,393CONCON
WychavonPershore6,787LIBLIB
 Total79,242CONCON

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2024.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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