Workington: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Workington: Overview

 Predicted winner: CON 
 Acual winner: CON 

MP at 2019: Mark Jenkinson  (CON)
County/Area: Cumbria (North West)
Electorate: 61,370
Turnout: 67.8%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON20,48849.3%43.2%
LAB16,31239.2%40.9%
Brexit1,7494.2%6.0%
LIB1,5253.7%6.2%
OTH9292.2%1.5%
Green5961.4%2.3%
CON Majority4,17610.0%Pred Maj 2.3%
Chance of
winning
CON
54%
LAB
46%
Brexit
0%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%

Workington : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Workington constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat North WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position7° Left4° Left
National Position11° Nat1° Nat
Social Position7° Con2° Con
TribeSomewheres
EU Leave %60%54%52%
British Identity26%28%29%
Good Health44%46%48%
UK Born98%92%88%
Good Education32%37%39%
Good Job40%49%51%
High SEC42%48%51%
Average Age51.548.648.5
ABC1 Class40%50%54%

Workington ranks #159 for "Leave", #452 for "Right", #137 for "National" and #82 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Workington: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Workington: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Workington

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Workington at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Workington. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

WorkingtonActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
OTH
Votes
AllerdaleAll Saints201503,10404874421,821
AllerdaleAspatria201508990534140620
AllerdaleBoltons2015512000127444
AllerdaleBroughton St Bridget's201501,3930617357911
AllerdaleChristchurch20151,7571,29419202160
AllerdaleClifton20150541002240
AllerdaleEllen20155251,28703853720
AllerdaleEllenborough201501,96600264223
AllerdaleEwanrigg201501,5770298122145
AllerdaleFlimby201505000205510
AllerdaleHarrington201501,01617647680728
AllerdaleHolme20155860001970
AllerdaleMarsh2015638160001180
AllerdaleMoorclose201502,119001251,445
AllerdaleMoss Bay20150-30000
AllerdaleNetherhall201501,36008961530
AllerdaleSeaton201502,79402,9912910
AllerdaleSilloth201590800442203923
AllerdaleSolway2015455284001410
AllerdaleSt John's201503,396425001,391
AllerdaleSt Michael's201503,26008612440
AllerdaleStainburn2015310444019100
AllerdaleWampool20156790002370
AllerdaleWaver20158150002260
AllerdaleWharrels201555031800820

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

WorkingtonEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AllerdaleAll Saints3,7791,1971,04612193420622,561
AllerdaleAspatria2,6559046865589230421,799
AllerdaleBoltons1,455609255473716023987
AllerdaleBroughton St Bridget's3,2801,13580610785370532,223
AllerdaleChristchurch2,6089575819960310411,769
AllerdaleClifton1,248366391283212017846
AllerdaleEllen2,5548796536178230371,731
AllerdaleEllenborough2,9548329546182280462,003
AllerdaleEwanrigg2,7317628984880240391,851
AllerdaleFlimby1,333408398254212019904
AllerdaleHarrington2,4839085498275260421,682
AllerdaleHolme1,330568233313911018900
AllerdaleMarsh1,258547204373413017852
AllerdaleMoorclose3,9311,0801,32071103350572,666
AllerdaleMoss Bay3,9039741,4216499350532,646
AllerdaleNetherhall2,4137656805080220391,636
AllerdaleSeaton4,0721,4341,00794129380582,760
AllerdaleSilloth2,5751,0205165887230411,745
AllerdaleSolway1,267524237323711018859
AllerdaleSt John's4,1941,2811,199128118450722,843
AllerdaleSt Michael's4,0601,1371,31577124380612,752
AllerdaleStainburn1,345514289393713020912
AllerdaleWampool1,323573219393413019897
AllerdaleWaver1,413627222364213018958
AllerdaleWharrels1,205487233363112017816
 Total61,36920,48816,3121,5261,747596092941,598

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Workington

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Workington.

WorkingtonPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AllerdaleAll Saints3,7791,0421,089186141640412,563
AllerdaleAspatria2,655795716100122380281,799
AllerdaleBoltons1,455549271725524015986
AllerdaleBroughton St Bridget's3,2801,000843163126560352,223
AllerdaleChristchurch2,60885061014393460271,769
AllerdaleClifton1,248315405494719011846
AllerdaleEllen2,554774681104110370241,730
AllerdaleEllenborough2,954710987111119450302,002
AllerdaleEwanrigg2,73165092894114390261,851
AllerdaleFlimby1,333353413475919013904
AllerdaleHarrington2,483806577125106400281,682
AllerdaleHolme1,330513248535518012899
AllerdaleMarsh1,258495218585020011852
AllerdaleMoorclose3,9319181,364137152570382,666
AllerdaleMoss Bay3,9038131,464129147570352,645
AllerdaleNetherhall2,41366670791110360261,636
AllerdaleSeaton4,0721,2671,052163180610382,761
AllerdaleSilloth2,575914545102119380271,745
AllerdaleSolway1,267472251535318012859
AllerdaleSt John's4,1941,1081,247200171690472,842
AllerdaleSt Michael's4,0609701,360146175610402,752
AllerdaleStainburn1,345459304625421013913
AllerdaleWampool1,323519234615020013897
AllerdaleWaver1,413569238605921012959
AllerdaleWharrels1,205437246564619011815
 Total61,36917,96416,9982,5652,513943061341,596

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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