Workington: Seat Details

Workington: Overview

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:Mark Jenkinson  (CON)
County/Area:Cumbria (North West)
Electorate:61,370
Turnout:67.8%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON20,48849.3%43.6%
LAB16,31239.2%43.5%
Brexit1,7494.2%3.8%
LIB1,5253.7%2.0%
OTH9292.2%4.1%
Green5961.4%2.9%
CON Majority4,17610.0%0.1%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
CON
48%
LAB
52%
Brexit
0%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%

Workington : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Workington constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat North WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position7° Left4° Left
National Position11° Nat1° Nat
Social Position7° Con2° Con
TribeSomewheres
EU Leave %60%54%52%
British Identity26%28%29%
Good Health44%47%48%
UK Born98%92%87%
Good Education32%37%39%
Good Job40%49%51%
High SEC42%48%51%
Average Age51.548.548.3
ABC1 Class40%50%54%

Workington ranks #159 for "Leave", #452 for "Right", #137 for "National" and #82 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Workington: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Workington

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Workington.

WorkingtonActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AllerdaleAll Saints3,816CONCON1,1071,056127801160992,585
AllerdaleAllhallow and Waverton1,535CONCON6652701130200441,040
AllerdaleAspatria3,033CONCON9718382680450972,057
AllerdaleBoltons1,601CONCON7012741430260401,085
AllerdaleBroughton St Bridgets3,143CONLAB882897101757101042,130
AllerdaleChristchurch3,278CONLAB9671,0066352700632,221
AllerdaleEllen and Gilcrux3,132CONLAB9279492172670862,122
AllerdaleFlimby1,383LABLAB29455193417032937
AllerdaleHarrington and Salterbeck4,648CONLAB1,2381,541401396501273,150
AllerdaleKeswick184CONLAB505734605125
AllerdaleMarsh and Wampool3,178CONCON1,3765732665530602,153
AllerdaleMaryport North4,364CONLAB1,1821,361491286701702,957
AllerdaleMaryport South3,035LABLAB6371,1952586390762,058
AllerdaleMoorclose and Moss Bay4,738LABLAB1,1711,646541426401363,213
AllerdaleSeaton and Northside4,843CONLAB1,3491,4695015412701343,283
AllerdaleSilloth and Solway Coast4,541CONCON1,7818994011510001423,077
AllerdaleSt John's4,578CONLAB1,1991,4369713110501363,104
AllerdaleSt Michael's2,901LABLAB6351,0693680710751,966
AllerdaleStainburn and Clifton3,007CONCON8828713489780852,039
AllerdaleWigton and Woodside431CONLAB11113861210015292
 Total61,369CONCON18,12518,0968321,5981,21701,72641,594

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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