Wyre and Preston North: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Wyre and Preston North: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Ben Wallace  (CON)
County/Area: Lancashire (North West)
Electorate: 75,168
Turnout: 70.4%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON31,58959.7%58.3%
LAB14,80828.0%31.3%
LIB4,4638.4%4.3%
Green1,7293.3%3.9%
OTH3350.6%2.2%
CON Majority16,78131.7%Pred Maj 27.0%
Chance of
winning
CON
95%
LAB
5%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Wyre and Preston North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Wyre and Preston North constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat North WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position13° Right4° Left
National Position7° Nat1° Nat
Social Position6° Con2° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %55%54%52%
British Identity31%28%29%
Good Health48%47%48%
UK Born95%92%87%
Good Education45%37%39%
Good Job58%49%51%
High SEC62%48%51%
Average Age52.848.548.3
ABC1 Class64%50%54%

Wyre and Preston North ranks #295 for "Leave", #94 for "Right", #226 for "National" and #116 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Wyre and Preston North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Wyre and Preston North

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Wyre and Preston North.

Wyre and Preston NorthActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
PrestonCadley2,756CONCON8707931610700581,952
PrestonGarrison6,695LABLAB1,9452,31323701520944,741
PrestonGreyfriars6,359CONCON2,1021,641404016501874,499
PrestonPreston Rural East5,705CONCON2,5391,05322701210974,037
PrestonPreston Rural North4,741CONCON2,2147931650970863,355
PrestonRibbleton2LABLAB01000001
PrestonSharoe Green6,208CONCON2,0531,77222402570884,394
WyreBourne1,794CONCON627561300350161,269
WyreBreck3,246CONCON1,479592810760682,296
WyreBrock with Catterall3,456CONCON1,704570640620462,446
WyreCalder1,931CONCON809445430390311,367
WyreCarleton3,757CONCON1,6187317701930382,657
WyreGarstang5,747CONCON2,5211,07111802670904,067
WyreGreat Eccleston3,398CONCON1,6235155801670422,405
WyreHambleton and Stalmine3,756CONCON1,828670590600402,657
WyreHardhorn with High Cross5,401CONCON2,59996710501000523,823
WyreMarsh Mill2,452CONCON1,016600490460251,736
WyreStanah3,949CONCON1,6858491250750612,795
WyreTithebarn3,422CONCON1,626625720650352,423
 Total74,775CONCON30,85816,5622,29902,04701,15452,920

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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