User-defined Prediction

The predicted results in the country, given the National and Regional levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

National and Regional Prediction: Conservative majority 32

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 43.5%318 43.3%318+23341
LAB 41.0%262 32.6%037-37225
LIB 7.6%12 13.3%50+517
Brexit 0.0%0 3.0%00+00
Green 1.7%1 3.0%00+01
SNP 3.1%35 3.7%90+944
PlaidC 0.5%4 0.6%00+04
UKIP 1.9%0 0.0%00+00
Other 0.7%0 0.5%00+00
N.Ire 18 00+018

The prediction was made with the following information about Regional support. The table shows the support levels entered and the difference in swing implied by those levels compared with that inferred from the national support figures (marked 'SD' for swing-difference).

AreaCON %LAB %LIB %Brexit %Green %UKIP %NAT %Weight % CON SD%LAB SD%LIB SD%Brexit SD%Green SD%UKIP SD%NAT SD%
  Scotland 26.718.010.80.71.20.041.89.0-2.1-10.36.31.8-0.3-0.24.9
  North East 36.140.68.611.13.10.04.00.10.5-0.2-0.20.10.0
  North West 37.041.79.97.63.20.011.10.31.1-0.6-0.40.00.0
  Yorks/Humber 41.037.69.28.23.20.08.10.20.8-0.5-0.40.10.0
  Wales 34.437.75.88.91.90.010.85.10.10.5-0.3-0.20.00.00.0
  West Midlands 49.732.612.22.02.90.08.90.20.9-0.5-0.40.10.0
  East Midlands 52.332.78.42.53.00.07.30.20.8-0.4-0.30.10.0
  Anglia 54.326.016.20.02.70.010.00.10.9-0.70.4-0.10.0
  South West 49.824.421.30.03.20.09.70.20.9-0.7-0.0-0.00.0
  London 32.041.718.23.63.80.011.90.31.2-0.7-0.50.10.0
  South East 52.023.819.40.03.60.015.00.21.5-1.00.1-0.10.0
 Average 43.332.613.33.03.00.0100.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

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List of predicted seat changes

SeatCounty/AreaPredicted Change  MP as at 2017
Alyn and DeesideClwydCONgain fromLAB: Mark Tami
AshfieldNottinghamshireCONgain fromLAB: Gloria De Piero
Ayr Carrick and CumnockAyrshire and LanarkSNPgain fromCON: Bill Grant
Barrow and FurnessCumbriaCONgain fromLAB: John Woodcock
Bishop AucklandDurhamCONgain fromLAB: Helen Goodman
Blackpool SouthLancashireCONgain fromLAB: Gordon Marsden
Bolton North EastWestern ManchesterCONgain fromLAB: David Crausby
Bradford SouthWest YorkshireCONgain fromLAB: Judith Cummins
BridgendMid GlamorganCONgain fromLAB: Madeleine Moon
Bury SouthWestern ManchesterCONgain fromLAB: Ivan Lewis
CheltenhamGloucestershireLIBgain fromCON: Alex Chalk
Clwyd SouthClwydCONgain fromLAB: Susan Elan Jones
Coatbridge, Chryston and BellshillGlasgow areaSNPgain fromLAB: Hugh Gaffney
Crewe and NantwichCheshireCONgain fromLAB: Laura Smith
Dagenham and RainhamBarking and DagenhamCONgain fromLAB: Jon Cruddas
DarlingtonDurhamCONgain fromLAB: Jenny Chapman
Don ValleySouth YorkshireCONgain fromLAB: Caroline Flint
Dudley NorthBlack CountryCONgain fromLAB: Ian Austin
East LothianEdinburgh areaSNPgain fromLAB: Martin Whitfield
Esher and WaltonSurreyLIBgain fromCON: Dominic Raab
Glasgow North EastGlasgow areaSNPgain fromLAB: Paul Sweeney
GordonGrampianSNPgain fromCON: Colin Clark
Great GrimsbyHumber areaCONgain fromLAB: Melanie Onn
IpswichSuffolkCONgain fromLAB: Sandy Martin
KeighleyWest YorkshireCONgain fromLAB: John Grogan
KensingtonKensington and ChelseaCONgain fromLAB: Emma Dent Coad
LeighWestern ManchesterCONgain fromLAB: Joanne Platt
MidlothianEdinburgh areaSNPgain fromLAB: Danielle Rowley
Newcastle-under-LymeStaffordshireCONgain fromLAB: Paul Farrelly
Ochil and South PerthshireCentralSNPgain fromCON: Luke Graham
Penistone and StocksbridgeSouth YorkshireCONgain fromLAB: Angela Smith
PeterboroughCambridgeshireCONgain fromLAB: Fiona Onasanya
Richmond ParkRichmond Upon ThamesLIBgain fromCON: Zac Goldsmith
Rother ValleySouth YorkshireCONgain fromLAB: Kevin Barron
Rutherglen and Hamilton WestAyrshire and LanarkSNPgain fromLAB: Ged Killen
SedgefieldDurhamCONgain fromLAB: Phil Wilson
Sheffield HallamSouth YorkshireLIBgain fromLAB: Jared O Mara
StirlingCentralSNPgain fromCON: Stephen Kerr
Stoke-on-Trent NorthStaffordshireCONgain fromLAB: Ruth Smeeth
WakefieldWest YorkshireCONgain fromLAB: Mary Creagh
Warrington SouthCheshireCONgain fromLAB: Faisal Rashid
West Bromwich WestBlack CountryCONgain fromLAB: Adrian Bailey
WinchesterHampshireLIBgain fromCON: Steve Brine
Wolverhampton North EastBlack CountryCONgain fromLAB: Emma Reynolds
WorkingtonCumbriaCONgain fromLAB: Sue Hayman

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.


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