The predicted results in the country, given the National and Regional levels of support which you entered, are as follows.
Party | 2017 Votes | 2017 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CON | 43.5% | 318 | 43.3% | 42 | 8 | +34 | 352 |
LAB | 41.0% | 262 | 32.6% | 0 | 48 | -48 | 214 |
LIB | 7.6% | 12 | 13.3% | 4 | 0 | +4 | 16 |
Brexit | 0.0% | 0 | 3.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
Green | 1.7% | 1 | 3.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
SNP | 3.1% | 35 | 3.6% | 10 | 0 | +10 | 45 |
PlaidC | 0.5% | 4 | 0.5% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 4 |
UKIP | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
Other | 0.7% | 0 | 0.6% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
N.Ire | 18 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 18 |
The prediction was made with the following information about Regional support. The table shows the support levels entered and the difference in swing implied by those levels compared with that inferred from the national support figures (marked 'SD' for swing-difference).
Area | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Brexit % | Green % | UKIP % | NAT % | Weight % | CON SD% | LAB SD% | LIB SD% | Brexit SD% | Green SD% | UKIP SD% | NAT SD% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scotland | 26.7 | 18.0 | 10.8 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 41.8 | 8.7 | -1.0 | -3.2 | 1.5 | -1.5 | -0.6 | -0.2 | 4.9 |
North East | 36.1 | 40.6 | 8.6 | 11.1 | 3.1 | 0.0 | 4.1 | -2.7 | -1.9 | -0.7 | 5.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | ||
North West | 37.0 | 41.7 | 9.9 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 0.0 | 11.4 | -0.9 | -0.5 | -1.1 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 0.0 | ||
Yorks/Humber | 41.0 | 37.6 | 9.2 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 0.0 | 8.3 | -1.1 | -0.7 | -1.2 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 | ||
Wales | 34.4 | 37.7 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 10.8 | 4.9 | -0.8 | -2.0 | -1.7 | 2.9 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 1.9 |
West Midlands | 49.7 | 32.6 | 12.2 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 8.9 | 0.4 | 1.3 | -0.1 | -0.9 | -0.1 | 0.0 | ||
East Midlands | 52.3 | 32.7 | 8.4 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 7.5 | 2.1 | 0.2 | -1.4 | -0.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 | ||
Anglia | 54.3 | 26.0 | 16.2 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 0.2 | -2.0 | -0.4 | 0.0 | ||
South West | 49.8 | 24.4 | 21.3 | 0.0 | 3.2 | 0.0 | 9.7 | 0.8 | 2.3 | -0.2 | -2.0 | -0.3 | 0.0 | ||
London | 32.0 | 41.7 | 18.2 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 0.0 | 11.6 | -0.5 | -2.6 | 2.4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.0 | ||
South East | 52.0 | 23.8 | 19.4 | 0.0 | 3.6 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 0.2 | -2.0 | -0.3 | 0.0 | ||
Average | 43.3 | 32.6 | 13.3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
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Seat | County/Area | Predicted Change | MP as at 2017 | ||
Alyn and Deeside | Clwyd | CON | gain from | LAB | Mark Tami |
Angus | Tayside | SNP | gain from | CON | Kirstene Hair |
Ashfield | Nottinghamshire | CON | gain from | LAB | Gloria De Piero |
Ayr Carrick and Cumnock | Ayrshire and Lanark | SNP | gain from | CON | Bill Grant |
Barrow and Furness | Cumbria | CON | gain from | LAB | John Woodcock |
Bassetlaw | Nottinghamshire | CON | gain from | LAB | John Mann |
Bedford | Bedfordshire | CON | gain from | LAB | Mohammad Yasin |
Bishop Auckland | Durham | CON | gain from | LAB | Helen Goodman |
Blackpool South | Lancashire | CON | gain from | LAB | Gordon Marsden |
Bolsover | Derbyshire | CON | gain from | LAB | Dennis Skinner |
Bradford South | West Yorkshire | CON | gain from | LAB | Judith Cummins |
Bridgend | Mid Glamorgan | CON | gain from | LAB | Madeleine Moon |
Burnley | Lancashire | CON | gain from | LAB | Julie Cooper |
Bury South | Western Manchester | CON | gain from | LAB | Ivan Lewis |
Cheltenham | Gloucestershire | LIB | gain from | CON | Alex Chalk |
Clwyd South | Clwyd | CON | gain from | LAB | Susan Elan Jones |
Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill | Glasgow area | SNP | gain from | LAB | Hugh Gaffney |
Coventry North West | Coventry and Solihull | CON | gain from | LAB | Geoffrey Robinson |
Crewe and Nantwich | Cheshire | CON | gain from | LAB | Laura Smith |
Dagenham and Rainham | Barking and Dagenham | CON | gain from | LAB | Jon Cruddas |
Darlington | Durham | CON | gain from | LAB | Jenny Chapman |
Derby North | Derbyshire | CON | gain from | LAB | Chris Williamson |
Don Valley | South Yorkshire | CON | gain from | LAB | Caroline Flint |
Dudley North | Black Country | CON | gain from | LAB | Ian Austin |
East Lothian | Edinburgh area | SNP | gain from | LAB | Martin Whitfield |
Gedling | Nottinghamshire | CON | gain from | LAB | Vernon Coaker |
Glasgow North East | Glasgow area | SNP | gain from | LAB | Paul Sweeney |
Gordon | Grampian | SNP | gain from | CON | Colin Clark |
Great Grimsby | Humber area | CON | gain from | LAB | Melanie Onn |
Hartlepool | Teesside | CON | gain from | LAB | Mike Hill |
Heywood and Middleton | Eastern Manchester | CON | gain from | LAB | Liz McInnes |
Hyndburn | Lancashire | CON | gain from | LAB | Graham Jones |
Ipswich | Suffolk | CON | gain from | LAB | Sandy Martin |
Keighley | West Yorkshire | CON | gain from | LAB | John Grogan |
Kensington | Kensington and Chelsea | CON | gain from | LAB | Emma Dent Coad |
Leigh | Western Manchester | CON | gain from | LAB | Joanne Platt |
Midlothian | Edinburgh area | SNP | gain from | LAB | Danielle Rowley |
Newcastle-under-Lyme | Staffordshire | CON | gain from | LAB | Paul Farrelly |
Ochil and South Perthshire | Central | SNP | gain from | CON | Luke Graham |
Penistone and Stocksbridge | South Yorkshire | CON | gain from | LAB | Angela Smith |
Peterborough | Cambridgeshire | CON | gain from | LAB | Fiona Onasanya |
Richmond Park | Richmond Upon Thames | LIB | gain from | CON | Zac Goldsmith |
Rother Valley | South Yorkshire | CON | gain from | LAB | Kevin Barron |
Rutherglen and Hamilton West | Ayrshire and Lanark | SNP | gain from | LAB | Ged Killen |
Sedgefield | Durham | CON | gain from | LAB | Phil Wilson |
Sheffield Hallam | South Yorkshire | LIB | gain from | LAB | Jared O Mara |
Stirling | Central | SNP | gain from | CON | Stephen Kerr |
Stockton South | Teesside | CON | gain from | LAB | Paul Williams |
Stoke-on-Trent North | Staffordshire | CON | gain from | LAB | Ruth Smeeth |
Wakefield | West Yorkshire | CON | gain from | LAB | Mary Creagh |
Warrington South | Cheshire | CON | gain from | LAB | Faisal Rashid |
West Bromwich West | Black Country | CON | gain from | LAB | Adrian Bailey |
Winchester | Hampshire | LIB | gain from | CON | Steve Brine |
Wolverhampton South East | Black Country | CON | gain from | LAB | Pat McFadden |
Workington | Cumbria | CON | gain from | LAB | Sue Hayman |
Wrexham | Clwyd | CON | gain from | LAB | Ian Lucas |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.
© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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