Election Prediction

The predicted results in the country and in Scotland, given the National levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

National Prediction: Conservative majority 88

Table of all seat results in Scotland

Scotland Prediction

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	44.7%	365	46.0%	10	6	+4	369
LAB	33.0%	203	34.0%	6	0	+6	209
LIB	11.8%	11	7.0%	0	3	-3	8
Brexit	2.1%	0	0.0%	0	0	+0	0
Green	2.8%	1	4.0%	0	0	+0	1
SNP	4.0%	48	3.6%	2	9	-7	41
PlaidC	0.5%	4	0.5%	0	0	+0	4
Other	1.1%	0	4.9%	0	0	+0	0
N.Ire		18		0	0	+0	18

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	25.1%	6	32.0%	9	0	+9	15
LAB	18.6%	1	10.0%	0	0	+0	1
LIB	9.5%	4	4.0%	0	2	-2	2
Brexit	0.5%	0	0.0%	0	0	+0	0
Green	1.0%	0	11.0%	0	0	+0	0
SNP	45.0%	48	41.0%	2	9	-7	41
Other	0.3%	0	2.0%	0	0	+0	0

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2019	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Brexit %	Green %	SNP %	OTH %	2019 Win	Pred Win
144	435	Edinburgh South	Ian Murray	66,188	75.1	24.0	37.6	1.5	0.0	13.7	21.4	1.9	LAB	LAB
153	425	Glasgow North East	Anne McLaughlin	61,075	55.5	16.6	29.4	0.6	0.0	8.9	42.9	1.6	SNP	SNP
183	395	Glasgow Central	Alison Thewliss	69,230	57.9	15.8	23.2	1.0	0.0	13.1	45.2	1.7	SNP	SNP
184	394	Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill	Steven Bonnar	72,943	66.1	18.8	25.4	0.6	0.0	10.6	43.0	1.6	SNP	SNP
186	392	Glasgow South West	Chris Stephens	64,575	57.1	18.6	24.6	0.8	0.0	10.3	43.9	1.8	SNP	SNP
195	383	Glasgow North	Patrick Grady	57,130	63.3	18.0	21.6	1.3	0.0	14.4	42.9	1.9	SNP	SNP
196	382	Rutherglen and Hamilton West	Margaret Ferrier	80,918	66.5	21.7	24.5	1.0	0.0	9.7	40.2	2.9	SNP	SNP
201	377	Glasgow East	David Linden	67,381	57.1	21.3	23.3	0.8	0.0	9.3	43.7	1.6	SNP	SNP
209	369	Motherwell and Wishaw	Marion Fellows	68,856	64.5	22.4	22.4	0.7	0.0	9.1	42.4	3.0	SNP	SNP
216	362	Glasgow South	Stewart McDonald	70,891	66.9	20.4	19.3	1.2	0.0	13.2	44.1	1.8	SNP	SNP
219	359	Airdrie and Shotts	Neil Gray	64,011	62.1	23.8	22.1	0.7	0.0	10.7	41.1	1.6	SNP	SNP
220	358	Dunbartonshire West	Martin Docherty	66,517	67.9	20.6	18.6	0.8	0.0	11.2	45.6	3.2	SNP	SNP
224	354	Inverclyde	Ronnie Cowan	60,622	65.8	22.7	19.7	1.3	0.0	10.2	44.3	1.8	SNP	SNP
226	352	Glasgow North West	Carol Monaghan	63,402	62.7	22.3	18.6	1.3	0.0	10.4	45.5	1.8	SNP	SNP
228	350	Edinburgh East	Tommy Sheppard	69,424	68.9	20.9	16.9	1.4	0.0	14.7	44.4	1.8	SNP	SNP
232	346	Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath	Neale Hanvey	72,853	64.5	28.0	22.7	1.2	0.0	14.9	31.2	2.0	SNP	SNP
236	342	Dundee West	Chris Law	64,431	64.5	20.4	14.5	1.2	0.0	11.6	49.7	2.6	SNP	SNP
250	328	Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East	Stuart McDonald	66,079	69.1	23.2	14.7	1.3	0.0	10.2	48.8	1.8	SNP	SNP
253	325	Paisley and Renfrewshire South	Mhairi Black	64,385	66.9	24.7	15.6	1.3	0.0	10.3	46.2	1.8	SNP	SNP
253	325	Midlothian	Owen Thompson	70,544	68.4	28.9	19.9	1.4	0.0	10.5	37.5	1.8	SNP	SNP
265	313	Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)	Angus MacNeil	21,106	68.6	28.7	18.4	0.9	0.0	9.3	41.1	1.6	SNP	SNP
272	306	Glenrothes	Peter Grant	65,672	63.3	24.8	13.1	1.2	0.0	11.8	47.1	2.1	SNP	SNP
283	295	Dunfermline and West Fife	Douglas Chapman	76,652	69.8	28.4	14.6	1.6	0.0	13.2	40.3	1.9	SNP	SNP
284	295	East Lothian	Kenny MacAskill	81,600	71.7	33.7	19.7	1.4	0.0	10.4	32.1	2.7	SNP	CON
286	292	Edinburgh North and Leith	Deidre Brock	81,336	73.0	26.9	12.4	3.1	0.0	15.5	39.7	2.4	SNP	SNP
288	290	East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow	Lisa Cameron	81,224	69.4	28.3	13.0	1.3	0.0	12.3	42.3	2.8	SNP	SNP
296	282	Paisley and Renfrewshire North	Gavin Newlands	72,007	69.0	29.9	13.3	1.4	0.0	10.6	43.0	1.8	SNP	SNP
299	279	Livingston	Hannah Bardell	82,285	66.3	29.3	12.1	1.2	0.0	12.7	42.9	1.8	SNP	SNP
300	278	Orkney and Shetland	Alistair Carmichael	34,211	67.7	18.1	0.3	36.8	0.0	12.0	30.0	2.8	LIB	LIB
304	274	Fife North East	Wendy Chamberlain	60,905	75.3	18.8	0.2	35.0	0.0	8.4	36.2	1.5	LIB	SNP
316	262	Dunbartonshire East	Amy Callaghan	66,075	80.3	21.7	0.4	28.8	0.0	12.9	33.1	3.1	SNP	SNP
317	261	Kilmarnock and Loudoun	Alan Brown	74,517	63.9	30.9	9.2	1.0	0.0	9.6	46.8	2.5	SNP	SNP
324	254	Edinburgh West	Christine Jardine	72,507	75.2	24.4	0.4	31.9	0.0	12.5	29.0	1.9	LIB	LIB
324	254	Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross	Jamie Stone	46,930	67.0	24.4	0.3	29.2	0.0	11.6	32.5	2.0	LIB	SNP
324	254	Ross Skye and Lochaber	Ian Blackford	54,230	73.5	24.6	0.3	16.6	0.0	10.6	44.3	3.7	SNP	SNP
324	254	Linlithgow and East Falkirk	Martyn Day	87,044	66.4	32.9	8.5	1.5	0.0	13.8	40.2	3.1	SNP	SNP
324	254	Aberdeen North	Kirsty Blackman	62,489	59.9	28.4	3.6	1.5	0.0	14.4	50.0	2.1	SNP	SNP
339	239	Dundee East	Stewart Hosie	66,210	68.4	31.6	3.8	1.6	0.0	10.7	49.8	2.6	SNP	SNP
341	237	Edinburgh South West	Joanna Cherry	73,501	70.9	33.0	4.8	1.9	0.0	14.5	43.6	2.3	SNP	SNP
342	237	Lanark and Hamilton East	Angela Crawley	77,659	68.3	38.9	10.5	1.1	0.0	9.8	37.9	1.7	SNP	CON
363	215	Falkirk	Johnny McNally	84,472	66.1	32.9	1.6	1.4	0.0	13.7	48.5	1.8	SNP	SNP
378	200	Ayrshire North and Arran	Patricia Gibson	73,534	65.5	37.2	4.3	0.9	0.0	11.5	44.5	1.6	SNP	SNP
411	167	Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey	Drew Hendry	78,059	70.2	36.7	0.4	2.6	0.0	14.5	43.9	2.0	SNP	SNP
414	164	Ayrshire Central	Philippa Whitford	69,742	66.7	41.3	4.6	1.0	0.0	9.4	42.1	1.6	SNP	SNP
437	141	Stirling	Alyn Smith	68,473	76.8	39.5	0.4	1.1	0.0	10.4	47.1	1.5	SNP	SNP
446	133	Renfrewshire East	Kirsten Oswald	72,232	76.6	42.4	2.8	1.5	0.0	10.5	40.9	1.8	SNP	CON
463	116	Ayr Carrick and Cumnock	Allan Dorans	71,970	64.7	44.9	3.8	0.9	0.0	9.3	39.5	1.6	SNP	CON
473	106	Argyll and Bute	Brendan O'Hara	66,525	72.2	42.1	0.3	6.2	0.0	9.9	39.8	1.7	SNP	CON
480	98	Perth and North Perthshire	Pete Wishart	72,600	74.5	42.3	0.2	1.4	0.0	8.2	46.6	1.4	SNP	SNP
495	84	Aberdeen South	Stephen Flynn	65,719	69.4	43.4	0.4	3.0	0.0	10.8	40.6	1.9	SNP	CON
508	71	Ochil and South Perthshire	John Nicolson	78,776	73.4	44.9	0.4	1.1	0.0	8.9	42.5	2.2	SNP	CON
514	65	Angus	Dave Doogan	63,952	67.5	45.2	0.2	1.1	0.0	7.1	45.1	1.2	SNP	CON
536	43	Gordon	Richard Thomson	79,629	70.2	47.6	0.3	2.5	0.0	9.3	38.7	1.6	SNP	CON
544	35	Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine	Andrew Bowie	72,640	73.4	48.7	0.2	3.7	0.0	8.8	37.0	1.5	CON	CON
556	23	Moray	Douglas Ross	71,035	68.7	49.9	0.2	0.9	0.0	6.7	40.2	2.0	CON	CON
560	19	Dumfries and Galloway	Alister Jack	74,580	69.0	50.6	0.5	1.2	0.0	9.5	36.6	1.7	CON	CON
564	15	Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale	David Mundell	68,330	71.9	52.6	0.4	1.4	0.0	9.6	34.3	1.7	CON	CON
567	12	Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk	John Lamont	74,518	71.3	54.0	0.2	1.6	0.0	8.0	34.7	1.4	CON	CON
570	9	Banff and Buchan	David Duguid	66,655	63.4	54.7	0.2	1.1	0.0	6.6	36.3	1.1	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.

User-defined Prediction

National Prediction: Conservative majority 88

Table of all seat results in Scotland

Scotland Prediction

List of Scotland seats with predictions