General Election Prediction

Updated 31 December 2020

Current Prediction: Conservative short 18 of majority

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesLow SeatsPred SeatsHigh Seats
CON 44.7%365 39.6%217308388
LAB 33.0%203 38.3%184254348
LIB 11.8%11 7.1%3722
Brexit 2.1%0 1.8%002
Green 2.8%1 4.7%111
SNP 4.0%48 4.5%405857
PlaidC 0.5%4 0.5%145
Other 1.1%0 3.5%002
DUP 8  8 
SF 7  7 
SDLP 2  2 
Alliance 1  1 

Prediction based on opinion polls from 02 Dec 2020 to 30 Dec 2020, sampling 15,382 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Lab minority
39%
Conservative majority
34%
No overall control
16%
Labour majority
10%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Brexit parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

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