General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Reform short 49 of majority

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Low Seats	Pred Seats	High Seats
CON	24.4%	121	19.2%	23	99	251
LAB	34.7%	412	18.5%	31	107	241
LIB	12.6%	72	12.9%	29	68	94
Reform	14.7%	5	28.0%	135	277	397
Green	6.9%	4	12.9%	8	17	83
SNP	2.6%	9	2.9%	15	44	46
PlaidC	0.7%	4	0.9%	2	6	12
Other	3.5%	5	4.8%	5	14	14
SF		7			7
DUP		5			5
SDLP		2			2
UUP		1			1
Alliance		1			1
TUV		1			1
NI Other		1			1

Prediction based on opinion polls from 29 Nov 2025 to 24 Dec 2025, sampling 12,188 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Reform minority

44%

Reform majority

23%

No overall control

13%

Con minority

10%

Lab minority

Conservative majority

Probability of being the largest party

Reform

77%

Conservative

12%

Labour

10%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary for end-December 2025

Posted 2 January 2026

The Conservatives saw a modest recovery in December, as they attracted some voters back from Reform. Labour has now fallen (just) into third place behind the Conservatives. Reform's decline means that it is likely to be the largest party, but short of an overall majority.