General Election Prediction

Updated 30 August 2021

Current Prediction: Conservative majority 16

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesLow SeatsPred SeatsHigh Seats
CON 44.7%365 40.0%249333411
LAB 33.0%203 33.4%160230310
LIB 11.8%11 9.8%5931
Reform 2.1%0 1.5%002
Green 2.8%1 5.8%112
SNP 4.0%48 4.2%355556
PlaidC 0.5%4 0.5%145
Other 1.1%0 4.7%002
DUP 8  8 
SF 7  7 
SDLP 2  2 
Alliance 1  1 

Prediction based on opinion polls from 30 Jul 2021 to 29 Aug 2021, sampling 9,996 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Conservative majority
52%
Lab minority
30%
No overall control
15%
Labour majority
2%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary on August 2021

Posted 1 September 2021

August saw a slight decline in the popularity of both major political parties, according to the opinion polls. Labour were down 2pc to 33pc support, and the Conservatives were down 1pc to 40pc. The Liberal Democrats were up 1pc to 10pc, which is their best rating since the general election.

In retrospect, May seems to have been the best month for the Conservatives so far this year as the vaccine roll-out was the focus of attention. Since then, their support has slid about 4pc, while Labour has held fairly steady. There does not seem to have been a big political reaction to the Covid "freedom day" in mid-July.

If these poll-of-poll results were repeated at a general election, the Conservatives would still be in government but with a greatly reduced majority of sixteen.


Opinion Polls From Dec 2019
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