General Election Prediction

Updated 31 December 2021

Current Prediction: Labour short 18 of majority

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesLow SeatsPred SeatsHigh Seats
CON 44.7%365 32.3%133247339
LAB 33.0%203 38.4%220308424
LIB 11.8%11 11.4%51134
Reform 2.1%0 3.1%000
Green 2.8%1 6.2%112
SNP 4.0%48 4.2%445959
PlaidC 0.5%4 1.1%3510
Other 1.1%0 3.3%012
DUP 8  8 
SF 7  7 
SDLP 2  2 
Alliance 1  1 

Prediction based on opinion polls from 03 Dec 2021 to 30 Dec 2021, sampling 12,773 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Labour majority
44%
Lab minority
43%
Conservative majority
7%
No overall control
6%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary on December 2021

Posted 4 January 2022

The Conservatives' winter of woe got even worse for the party in December. Labour now have a clear lead over the Conservatives for the first time since Boris Johnson became Conservative leader. The Labour lead is 6pc, which represents a swing of 9pc from Conservative to Labour since the last election.

With these figures at a general election, the Conservatives would be out of government and Labour would be 18 seats short of an overall majority but likely to form a minority government. Labour could make an alliance either with the SNP, or with a coalition of smaller parties.

The probability of a Labour-led government, on these polling figures, is now more than 85pc making that a very likely outcome.

Also read Prof Richard Rose this month on likely ways of Government Formation given current opinion.


Opinion Polls From Dec 2019
Return to the home page.