General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Labour majority 266

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Seats	Pred Votes	Low Seats	Pred Seats	High Seats
CON	44.7%	376	23.6%	32	90	215
LAB	33.0%	197	43.3%	339	458	536
LIB	11.8%	8	10.2%	20	50	62
Reform	2.1%	0	12.1%	0	0	22
Green	2.8%	1	5.5%	0	2	4
SNP	4.0%	48	3.5%	10	28	44
PlaidC	0.5%	2	0.6%	1	4	4
Other	1.1%	0	1.3%	0	0	1
DUP		8			8
SF		7			7
SDLP		2			2
Alliance		1			1

Prediction based on opinion polls from 07 Mar 2024 to 28 Mar 2024, sampling 18,432 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Labour majority

96%

Lab minority

Probability of being the largest party

Labour

99%

Conservative

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary on March 2024

Posted 2 April 2024

Conservative support slipped by 2pc during March, with Reform UK as the main beneficiary. That leaves Labour likely to win a massive landslide if there were an election soon. The Liberal Democrats are now a bit behind Reform UK in terms of vote share, but they will gain dozens of seats, while Reform is unlikely to win any.