General Election Prediction

Updated 27 February 2021

Current Prediction: Conservative majority 24

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesLow SeatsPred SeatsHigh Seats
CON 44.7%365 41.5%246337410
LAB 33.0%203 36.6%164227323
LIB 11.8%11 7.1%3720
Reform 2.1%0 2.2%002
Green 2.8%1 5.0%111
SNP 4.0%48 4.2%335656
PlaidC 0.5%4 0.5%145
Other 1.1%0 3.0%001
DUP 8  8 
SF 7  7 
SDLP 2  2 
Alliance 1  1 

Prediction based on opinion polls from 25 Jan 2021 to 26 Feb 2021, sampling 14,556 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Conservative majority
55%
Lab minority
26%
No overall control
14%
Labour majority
5%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary on February 2021

Posted 1 Mar 2021

In February, our latest poll of polls show the Conservatives gaining ground from Labour. Over the nine pollsters who published a poll last month, the Conservatives have an average lead over Labour of around 5pc. This is up on their lead of 2pc in January.

Translating those polls into a likely General Election result gives the Conservatives a workable majority of 24 seats. This is the first time the Conservatives have been predicted to have an outright majority since last autumn.

This turnaround in Conservative fortunes has coincided with the successful roll-out of the UK vaccination programme. If that continues, and the national lockdown eases on schedule, then the Conservatives may be well placed for the local elections at the start of May.


Opinion Polls From Dec 2019
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