General Election Prediction
Updated 29 June 2021
Current Prediction: Conservative majority 42
| Party | 2019 Votes | 2019 Seats | Pred Votes | Low Seats | Pred Seats | High Seats |
|---|
| CON | 44.7% | 365 | 42.1% | 264 | 346 | 425 |
| LAB | 33.0% | 203 | 33.6% | 150 | 220 | 299 |
| LIB | 11.8% | 11 | 8.1% | 3 | 6 | 24 |
| Reform | 2.1% | 0 | 1.8% | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Green | 2.8% | 1 | 5.9% | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| SNP | 4.0% | 48 | 4.2% | 35 | 55 | 56 |
| PlaidC | 0.5% | 4 | 0.5% | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Other | 1.1% | 0 | 3.8% | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| DUP | | 8 | | | 8 | |
| SF | | 7 | | | 7 | |
| SDLP | | 2 | | | 2 | |
| Alliance | | 1 | | | 1 | |
Prediction based on opinion polls from 28 May 2021 to 28 Jun 2021, sampling 14,792 people.
Commentary on June 2021
Posted 1 July 2021
Our June poll-of-polls is taken over eight separate pollsters, all of whom show
a clear lead for the Conservatives over Labour. The average Conservative lead is 8pc, which is
lower than last month.
This would still imply a comfortable Conservative majority in the House of Commons
if there were a general election tomorrow. The Conservatives would win around 345 seats,
with a majority of around 40 seats.
The recent Liberal Democrat win at the Chesham and Amersham by-election on 17 June does not seem
to reflect any increased anti-Conservative feeling in the country. Most of the polling was conducted
after that date, and the Conservative lead was still clearly visible. There has been a modest growth
in support for the Lib Dems, who are a point or two more popular than they were last autumn, but they
are still well below their support level at the last general election.
Return to the home page.
