|Party||2019 Votes||2019 Seats||Pred Votes||Low Seats||Pred Seats||High Seats|
Prediction based on opinion polls from 30 Jul 2021 to 29 Aug 2021, sampling 9,996 people.
|No overall control|
The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.
In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.
August saw a slight decline in the popularity of both major political parties, according to the opinion polls. Labour were down 2pc to 33pc support, and the Conservatives were down 1pc to 40pc. The Liberal Democrats were up 1pc to 10pc, which is their best rating since the general election.
In retrospect, May seems to have been the best month for the Conservatives so far this year as the vaccine roll-out was the focus of attention. Since then, their support has slid about 4pc, while Labour has held fairly steady. There does not seem to have been a big political reaction to the Covid "freedom day" in mid-July.
If these poll-of-poll results were repeated at a general election, the Conservatives would still be in government but with a greatly reduced majority of sixteen.