General Election Prediction

Updated 30 September 2026

Probability of possible outcomes

Lab minority	42%
Labour majority	35%
Reform minority	8%
Con minority	7%
No overall control	6%
Conservative majority	1%
Reform majority	1%

Probability of being the largest party

Labour	81%
Reform	10%
Conservative	9%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary for end-September 2026

Posted 1 October 2026

Labour continues to benefit from the Burnham Bounce, as they gain about 1pc, and Reform loses 1pc, over September.

Labour would be just short of an overall majority, but could have a very workable coalition with the Liberal Democrats.

These figures include adjustment for tactical voting, as described here.

Also, Richard Rose this month says that the Burnham bounce builds on a divided right-wing bloc.

Technical note

This month, the central forecast number of seats for the Green party is two, which is outside the 90pc confidence interval which runs from 3 to 40 seats. Although this looks strange, it's actually correct. Here's why.

The figure of two seats is the number the Greens are predicted to win under the central forecast, using the expected number of votes in each seat. But there is a difference between seat winners and expected seats. The Greens have a fair chance of winning many other seats but they are not the likely winners in those seats. These do not count as seat wins in the central forecast but contribute to the expected number of Green seats, which is 14.7. And the confidence bounds surround this expected value as they should do.

Read more about expected seats.