General Election Prediction

Updated 28 October 2023

Current Prediction: Labour majority 232

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesLow SeatsPred SeatsHigh Seats
CON 44.7%365 26.6%48135247
LAB 33.0%203 45.3%330441534
LIB 11.8%11 10.6%133050
Reform 2.1%0 7.2%001
Green 2.8%1 5.3%112
SNP 4.0%48 3.4%72142
PlaidC 0.5%4 0.8%345
Other 1.1%0 0.9%001
DUP 8  8 
SF 7  7 
SDLP 2  2 
Alliance 1  1 

Prediction based on opinion polls from 11 Oct 2023 to 27 Oct 2023, sampling 17,435 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Labour majority
Lab minority

Probability of being the largest party


The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary on October 2023

Posted 1 November 2023

Labour's lead over the Conservatives widened in October to 19pc, up from 17pc the month before. That would translate into a very large Labour majority if there were an election today. Labour have now enjoyed double-digit leads over the Conservatives for more than a year now.

Also read Prof Richard Rose this month who asks What Effect could a Tory Recovery Have?.

Opinion Polls From Dec 2019
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