General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Labour majority 232

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Seats	Pred Votes	Low Seats	Pred Seats	High Seats
CON	44.7%	365	26.6%	48	135	247
LAB	33.0%	203	45.3%	330	441	534
LIB	11.8%	11	10.6%	13	30	50
Reform	2.1%	0	7.2%	0	0	1
Green	2.8%	1	5.3%	1	1	2
SNP	4.0%	48	3.4%	7	21	42
PlaidC	0.5%	4	0.8%	3	4	5
Other	1.1%	0	0.9%	0	0	1
DUP		8			8
SF		7			7
SDLP		2			2
Alliance		1			1

Prediction based on opinion polls from 11 Oct 2023 to 27 Oct 2023, sampling 17,435 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Labour majority

96%

Lab minority

Probability of being the largest party

Labour

99%

Conservative

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary on October 2023

Posted 1 November 2023

Labour's lead over the Conservatives widened in October to 19pc, up from 17pc the month before. That would translate into a very large Labour majority if there were an election today. Labour have now enjoyed double-digit leads over the Conservatives for more than a year now.