General Election Prediction

Updated 27 February 2024

Current Prediction: Labour majority 260

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesLow SeatsPred SeatsHigh Seats
CON 44.7%376 25.2%42113239
LAB 33.0%197 43.1%327455537
LIB 11.8%8 9.9%184057
Reform 2.1%0 10.2%0011
Green 2.8%1 5.9%124
SNP 4.0%48 3.2%61839
PlaidC 0.5%2 0.6%144
Other 1.1%0 1.9%001
DUP 8  8 
SF 7  7 
SDLP 2  2 
Alliance 1  1 

Prediction based on opinion polls from 07 Feb 2024 to 26 Feb 2024, sampling 15,010 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Labour majority
95%
Lab minority
4%
No overall control
1%

Probability of being the largest party

Labour
99%
Conservative
1%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary on February 2024

Posted 1 March 2024

Our new large-scale MRP poll gives an updated view of the likely outcome in seats this month. Labour's lead over the Conservatives fell back slightly from 20% to 18%, but this still translates into a very significant Labour victory. Reform UK continue to win around 10% support, much of which comes from former Conservative voters. It is also getting clearer which seats the Lib Dems are likely to win, and in which others they will be behind Labour (see article).

Also read Prof Richard Rose this month who looks at the Race for Third Place in the Commons.


Opinion Polls From Dec 2019
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