General Election Prediction

Updated 31 March 2021

Current Prediction: Conservative majority 32

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesLow SeatsPred SeatsHigh Seats
CON 44.7%365 42.3%251341415
LAB 33.0%203 36.1%160225314
LIB 11.8%11 7.0%2620
Reform 2.1%0 2.1%002
Green 2.8%1 4.7%111
SNP 4.0%48 4.3%385557
PlaidC 0.5%4 0.5%145
Other 1.1%0 3.0%001
DUP 8  8 
SF 7  7 
SDLP 2  2 
Alliance 1  1 

Prediction based on opinion polls from 05 Mar 2021 to 29 Mar 2021, sampling 14,062 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Conservative majority
58%
Lab minority
26%
No overall control
13%
Labour majority
3%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary on March 2021

Posted 4 Apr 2021

Our March monthly poll-of-polls shows the Conservatives gaining ground slightly on Labour. Taking an average over nine pollsters, the Conservative lead is now 6pc, up from 5pc the month before. But that single number is just an average of some disparate individual polls, which run from a modest 2pc lead (BMG) up to a chunky 10pc lead (YouGov). The full breakdown is here.

If there were an imminent general election, the Conservatives could expect to be re-elected with a working majority of around 32 seats. They appear to be benefiting from the covid vaccination programme and the gradual unwinding of lockdown.


Opinion Polls From Dec 2019
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