General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Reform majority 86

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Low Seats	Pred Seats	High Seats
CON	24.4%	121	17.9%	17	36	169
LAB	34.7%	412	21.2%	45	119	264
LIB	12.6%	72	13.6%	28	64	94
Reform	14.7%	5	30.3%	179	368	454
Green	6.9%	4	8.8%	3	4	26
SNP	2.6%	9	2.6%	10	32	43
PlaidC	0.7%	4	0.8%	2	5	9
Other	3.5%	5	4.7%	0	4	8
SF		7			7
DUP		5			5
SDLP		2			2
UUP		1			1
Alliance		1			1
TUV		1			1
NI Other		1			1

Prediction based on opinion polls from 01 Aug 2025 to 22 Aug 2025, sampling 11,818 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Reform majority

48%

Reform minority

32%

Lab minority

No overall control

Con minority

Labour majority

Probability of being the largest party

Reform

86%

Labour

12%

Conservative

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary for end-August 2025

Posted 29 August 2025

Reform's lead over Labour has increased slightly to 9pc over last month. Reform continues to poll around 30pc in the polls, with Labour declining in the low 20s. An immediate general election would likely bring in a Reform government with a comfortable majority.