General Election Prediction

Updated 27 September 2025

Current Prediction: Reform short 25 of majority

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesLow SeatsPred SeatsHigh Seats
CON 24.4%121 17.2%1551180
LAB 34.7%412 21.3%56153296
LIB 12.6%72 14.0%3371101
Reform 14.7%5 30.4%154301413
Green 6.9%4 9.6%3628
SNP 2.6%9 3.0%154146
PlaidC 0.7%4 0.7%259
Other 3.5%5 3.9%048
SF 7  7 
DUP 5  5 
SDLP 2  2 
UUP 1  1 
Alliance 1  1 
TUV 1  1 
NI Other 1  1 

Prediction based on opinion polls from 28 Aug 2025 to 26 Sep 2025, sampling 12,571 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Reform minority
36%
Reform majority
29%
Lab minority
18%
No overall control
12%
Con minority
3%
Labour majority
2%

Probability of being the largest party

Reform
78%
Labour
19%
Conservative
3%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary for end-September 2025

Posted 30 September 2025

Although party support remained fairly constant in September, our prediction has been updated to reflect new information about tactical voting. This shows that many voters will vote tactically both for left-right partisan reasons, and also to keep Reform out. This costs Reform several dozen seats and deprives them of an overall parliamentary majority.

On our figures, a possible scenario would be a Reform-Conservative government, with Reform as the largest party.

Also, Richard Rose this month says that the Labour can change for the less bad or for worse.


Opinion Polls From July 2024
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