General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Labour majority 174

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Low Seats	Pred Seats	High Seats
CON	24.4%	121	24.4%	121	121	123
LAB	34.7%	412	34.7%	410	412	412
LIB	12.6%	72	12.6%	72	72	72
Reform	14.7%	5	14.7%	5	5	5
Green	6.9%	4	6.9%	4	4	4
SNP	2.6%	9	2.6%	9	9	9
PlaidC	0.7%	4	0.7%	4	4	4
Other	3.5%	5	3.4%	5	5	5
SF		7			7
DUP		5			5
SDLP		2			2
NI Other		2			2
UUP		1			1
Alliance		1			1

Prediction based on opinion polls from 04 Jul 2024 to 04 Jul 2024, sampling 1,000 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Labour majority

100%

Probability of being the largest party

Labour

100%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary after Election Day

Posted 8 July 2024

Labour's actual lead over the Conservatives turned out to be 10pc. That was enough for a very large landslide majority, though not quite as big as predicted beforehand.