General Election Prediction
Updated 30 January 2025
Current Prediction: Labour short 117 of majority
Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Low Seats | Pred Seats | High Seats |
CON | 24.4% | 121 | 22.5% | 56 | 156 | 273 |
LAB | 34.7% | 412 | 26.0% | 99 | 209 | 352 |
LIB | 12.6% | 72 | 12.4% | 26 | 62 | 79 |
Reform | 14.7% | 5 | 24.3% | 56 | 151 | 307 |
Green | 6.9% | 4 | 8.9% | 2 | 4 | 21 |
SNP | 2.6% | 9 | 3.2% | 15 | 43 | 47 |
PlaidC | 0.7% | 4 | 0.7% | 1 | 2 | 7 |
Other | 3.5% | 5 | 1.8% | 0 | 5 | 7 |
SF | | 7 | | | 7 | |
DUP | | 5 | | | 5 | |
SDLP | | 2 | | | 2 | |
UUP | | 1 | | | 1 | |
Alliance | | 1 | | | 1 | |
TUV | | 1 | | | 1 | |
NI Other | | 1 | | | 1 | |
Prediction based on opinion polls from 10 Jan 2025 to 29 Jan 2025, sampling 17,901 people.
Commentary for end-January 2024
Posted 31 January 2025
January polling shows Reform UK overtaking the Conservatives in our monthly poll-of-polls for
the first time. Reform are two points ahead of the Conservatives, and two points behind Labour,
and in what is close to a three-way tie in terms of vote share. Translated into seats, Labour
would still be the largest party, but would be well short of a majority in the House of Commons. A
Labour-Lib Dem coalition would be the most likely outcome at the moment, with a comfortable 52-seat majority.
Also, Richard Rose writes this month that Reform has cleared
the first hurdle in a marathon race.
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