General Election Prediction

Updated 2 October 2021

Current Prediction: Conservative majority 20

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesLow SeatsPred SeatsHigh Seats
CON 44.7%365 40.3%245335408
LAB 33.0%203 34.6%163230315
LIB 11.8%11 9.1%4728
Reform 2.1%0 1.3%001
Green 2.8%1 5.9%112
SNP 4.0%48 4.3%375556
PlaidC 0.5%4 0.5%145
Other 1.1%0 4.1%002
DUP 8  8 
SF 7  7 
SDLP 2  2 
Alliance 1  1 

Prediction based on opinion polls from 02 Sep 2021 to 01 Oct 2021, sampling 14,477 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Conservative majority
50%
Lab minority
32%
No overall control
15%
Labour majority
3%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary on September 2021

Posted 4 October 2021

Labour gained some support on average in September, as our poll-of-polls shows them up 2pc on 35pc, while the Conservatives remain constant on 40pc. This may be due to the government's announcements of higher taxes, plus worries about the economy and extra publicity for Labour from their party conference.

The Conservatives will have their change for a party conference bounce in the October polls, but the overall political situation is getting more competitive than it has been during the Covid period.

If there were an imminent general election, these poll results would translate into a Conservative majority of twenty seats, which is workable but much less than they won in 2019.


Opinion Polls From Dec 2019
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