General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Reform short 7 of majority

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Low Seats	Pred Seats	High Seats
CON	24.4%	121	18.8%	21	83	231
LAB	34.7%	412	19.2%	17	68	232
LIB	12.6%	72	12.6%	30	64	92
Reform	14.7%	5	29.3%	152	319	418
Green	6.9%	4	13.3%	19	46	93
SNP	2.6%	9	2.9%	15	44	46
PlaidC	0.7%	4	1.0%	2	4	12
Other	3.5%	5	3.0%	0	4	6
SF		7			7
DUP		5			5
SDLP		2			2
UUP		1			1
Alliance		1			1
TUV		1			1
NI Other		1			1

Prediction based on opinion polls from 09 Jan 2026 to 23 Jan 2026, sampling 12,308 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Reform minority

42%

Reform majority

31%

No overall control

13%

Con minority

Lab minority

Conservative majority

Probability of being the largest party

Reform

84%

Conservative

Labour

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary for end-January 2026

Posted 30 January 2026

Reform made small gains in support during January, but are still a little short of an overall majority. Labour are still below 20pc in the polls, and might get fewer seats than the Conservatives. The Greens are competing with the Liberal Democrats for fourth place but are expected to win around 46 seats, as they benefit from Labour's decline.