General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Reform short 1 of majority

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Low Seats	Pred Seats	High Seats
CON	24.4%	121	17.7%	14	54	200
LAB	34.7%	412	18.8%	33	107	243
LIB	12.6%	72	13.3%	29	69	93
Reform	14.7%	5	29.9%	170	325	426
Green	6.9%	4	12.0%	7	14	70
SNP	2.6%	9	2.8%	13	44	45
PlaidC	0.7%	4	0.8%	2	5	10
Other	3.5%	5	4.8%	4	14	14
SF		7			7
DUP		5			5
SDLP		2			2
UUP		1			1
Alliance		1			1
TUV		1			1
NI Other		1			1

Prediction based on opinion polls from 03 Oct 2025 to 27 Oct 2025, sampling 14,093 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Reform minority

39%

Reform majority

37%

No overall control

12%

Lab minority

Con minority

Probability of being the largest party

Reform

87%

Labour

Conservative

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary for end-October 2025

Posted 31 October 2025

October saw increased support for the Green party, who are up by 2pc, at the expense of Labour, who are down by 2pc. The other parties are fairly stable, which leaves Reform as the largest party, although just short of an overall majority.