General Election Prediction

Updated 25 October 2024

Current Prediction: Labour majority 40

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesLow SeatsPred SeatsHigh Seats
CON 24.4%121 25.1%73170285
LAB 34.7%412 29.1%167345405
LIB 12.6%72 13.2%447291
Reform 14.7%5 19.5%1216161
Green 6.9%4 7.3%3412
SNP 2.6%9 2.7%61038
PlaidC 0.7%4 0.7%246
Other 3.5%5 2.4%11113
SF 7  7 
DUP 5  5 
SDLP 2  2 
NI Other 2  2 
UUP 1  1 
Alliance 1  1 

Prediction based on opinion polls from 02 Oct 2024 to 24 Oct 2024, sampling 10,879 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Lab minority
45%
Labour majority
36%
No overall control
8%
Con minority
7%
Conservative majority
2%
Reform minority
2%

Probability of being the largest party

Labour
83%
Conservative
14%
Reform
2%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary for November 2024

Posted 1 November 2024

According to the recent polls in October, Labour has lost around 6pc on its general election performance with most of the gain going to Reform UK. On these figures, Labour would still have a majority in the House of Commons, but it would be significantly smaller than their result in July.

Also, Richard Rose writes this month about the good news and the bad news for Labour.


Opinion Polls From Dec 2024
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