|Party||2019 Votes||2019 Seats||Pred Votes||Low Seats||Pred Seats||High Seats|
Prediction based on opinion polls from 03 Dec 2021 to 30 Dec 2021, sampling 12,773 people.
|No overall control|
The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.
In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.
The Conservatives' winter of woe got even worse for the party in December. Labour now have a clear lead over the Conservatives for the first time since Boris Johnson became Conservative leader. The Labour lead is 6pc, which represents a swing of 9pc from Conservative to Labour since the last election.
With these figures at a general election, the Conservatives would be out of government and Labour would be 18 seats short of an overall majority but likely to form a minority government. Labour could make an alliance either with the SNP, or with a coalition of smaller parties.
The probability of a Labour-led government, on these polling figures, is now more than 85pc making that a very likely outcome.
Also read Prof Richard Rose this month on likely ways of Government Formation given current opinion.