General Election Prediction

Updated 4 May 2021

Current Prediction: Conservative majority 24

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesLow SeatsPred SeatsHigh Seats
CON 44.7%365 41.5%246337411
LAB 33.0%203 36.0%163229319
LIB 11.8%11 7.4%3622
Reform 2.1%0 2.0%002
Green 2.8%1 5.0%111
SNP 4.0%48 4.2%365556
PlaidC 0.5%4 0.5%145
Other 1.1%0 3.5%001
DUP 8  8 
SF 7  7 
SDLP 2  2 
Alliance 1  1 

Prediction based on opinion polls from 08 Apr 2021 to 03 May 2021, sampling 16,894 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Conservative majority
54%
Lab minority
28%
No overall control
14%
Labour majority
4%
Con minority
1%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary on April 2021

Posted 4 May 2021

Our poll-of-polls for April has eleven separate polling companies, but they don't all agree. The size of the Conservative lead over Labour varies from a modest 1pc (Focaldata) to a chunky 11pc (YouGov). The average lead is around 6pc, which is about the same as last month.

If there were a general election tomorrow, that would translate into a workable majority for the Conservatives of around 24 seats. So far, the sleaze allegations have not translated into big changes in public opinion. That may happen at some time in the future, but the present looks good enough for the Conservatives at the upcoming local elections on Thursday 6 May.


Opinion Polls From Dec 2019
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