Party | 2019 Votes | 2019 Seats | Pred Votes | Low Seats | Pred Seats | High Seats |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CON | 44.7% | 365 | 26.6% | 48 | 135 | 247 |
LAB | 33.0% | 203 | 45.3% | 330 | 441 | 534 |
LIB | 11.8% | 11 | 10.6% | 13 | 30 | 50 |
Reform | 2.1% | 0 | 7.2% | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Green | 2.8% | 1 | 5.3% | 1 | 1 | 2 |
SNP | 4.0% | 48 | 3.4% | 7 | 21 | 42 |
PlaidC | 0.5% | 4 | 0.8% | 3 | 4 | 5 |
Other | 1.1% | 0 | 0.9% | 0 | 0 | 1 |
DUP | 8 | 8 | ||||
SF | 7 | 7 | ||||
SDLP | 2 | 2 | ||||
Alliance | 1 | 1 |
Prediction based on opinion polls from 11 Oct 2023 to 27 Oct 2023, sampling 17,435 people.
Labour majority |
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Lab minority |
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Labour |
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Conservative |
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The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.
In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.
Labour's lead over the Conservatives widened in October to 19pc, up from 17pc the month before. That would translate into a very large Labour majority if there were an election today. Labour have now enjoyed double-digit leads over the Conservatives for more than a year now.
Also read Prof Richard Rose this month who asks What Effect could a Tory Recovery Have?.