General Election Prediction

Updated 1 June 2021

Current Prediction: Conservative majority 60

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesLow SeatsPred SeatsHigh Seats
CON 44.7%365 43.5%272355431
LAB 33.0%203 33.8%143211293
LIB 11.8%11 7.7%2621
Reform 2.1%0 1.7%002
Green 2.8%1 5.4%111
SNP 4.0%48 4.2%355556
PlaidC 0.5%4 0.5%145
Other 1.1%0 3.2%001
DUP 8  8 
SF 7  7 
SDLP 2  2 
Alliance 1  1 

Prediction based on opinion polls from 04 May 2021 to 31 May 2021, sampling 10,233 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Conservative majority
Lab minority
No overall control
Labour majority

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary on May 2021

Posted 1 June 2021

Following on from their success at the local elections, the Conservatives have increased their lead over Labour. Our poll-of-polls for May looks at the latest polls from six different pollsters, which shows an average Conservative lead of 10pc. This is up from 6pc last month.

This would translate into a sizeable Conservative majority if there were a general election tomorrow, assuming the polls are about right. The Conservatives would be expected to win around 355 seats, giving them a majority of 60 seats.

Some commentators say that the Boris Johnson 'magic' will only work for as long it works, but it still seems to be working at the moment.

Opinion Polls From Dec 2019
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