General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Reform short 60 of majority

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Low Seats	Pred Seats	High Seats
CON	24.4%	121	18.5%	27	107	238
LAB	34.7%	412	18.6%	13	63	232
LIB	12.6%	72	12.0%	32	69	94
Reform	14.7%	5	26.5%	121	266	375
Green	6.9%	4	16.2%	32	74	156
SNP	2.6%	9	3.0%	16	44	47
PlaidC	0.7%	4	1.0%	2	6	13
Other	3.5%	5	4.4%	0	3	7
SF		7			7
DUP		5			5
SDLP		2			2
UUP		1			1
Alliance		1			1
TUV		1			1
NI Other		1			1

Prediction based on opinion polls from 02 Mar 2026 to 30 Mar 2026, sampling 19,661 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Reform minority

42%

Lab minority

16%

Reform majority

16%

Con minority

10%

No overall control

Green minority

LibDem minority

Conservative majority

Probability of being the largest party

Reform

74%

Conservative

13%

Labour

10%

Green

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary for end-March 2026

Posted 3 April 2026

In March, Reform UK lost some ground in the polls, and the Greens gained. Labour also declined slightly. If there were a general election now, Reform would be short of a majority, but might join forces with the Conservatives. The Green Party would then be the official opposition.