General Election Prediction

Updated 30 November 2021

Current Prediction: Conservative short 35 of majority

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesLow SeatsPred SeatsHigh Seats
CON 44.7%365 37.3%204291375
LAB 33.0%203 37.2%192269352
LIB 11.8%11 9.1%51131
Reform 2.1%0 2.0%002
Green 2.8%1 5.9%112
SNP 4.0%48 4.2%385656
PlaidC 0.5%4 0.5%145
Other 1.1%0 3.7%002
DUP 8  8 
SF 7  7 
SDLP 2  2 
Alliance 1  1 

Prediction based on opinion polls from 29 Oct 2021 to 29 Nov 2021, sampling 18,548 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Lab minority
47%
Conservative majority
25%
No overall control
15%
Labour majority
13%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary on November 2021

Posted 1 December 2021

There was a big uptick in Labour support over November, and Labour is now neck-and-neck with the Conservatives for the first time in a year.

If there were an imminent general election, the Conservatives would win about 20 seats more than Labour, but would still be 35 seats short of a majority. A Labour-SNP alliance could form a government, possibly with the support of other parties.

The probability of a Labour-led government is now more likely than not.


Opinion Polls From Dec 2019
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