General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Labour majority 272

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Seats	Pred Votes	Low Seats	Pred Seats	High Seats
CON	44.7%	376	21.9%	42	80	236
LAB	33.0%	197	41.4%	321	461	504
LIB	11.8%	8	10.8%	34	63	77
Reform	2.1%	0	14.8%	0	1	7
Green	2.8%	1	5.6%	0	2	2
SNP	4.0%	48	3.5%	6	20	38
PlaidC	0.5%	2	0.7%	1	3	5
Other	1.1%	0	1.5%	0	2	3
DUP		8			7
SF		7			7
SDLP		2			2
UUP		0			1
Alliance		1			1

Prediction based on opinion polls from 05 Jun 2024 to 13 Jun 2024, sampling 19,426 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Labour majority

94%

Lab minority

Probability of being the largest party

Labour

99%

Conservative

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary with three weeks to go

Posted 14 June 2024

Labour's lead over the Conservatives held steady at 20pc over the last week. Since Nigel Farage's reappearance, Reform are up 1pc to 15pc, but are still 7pc behind the Tories on average.