General Election Prediction
Updated 27 September 2025
Current Prediction: Reform short 25 of majority
Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Low Seats | Pred Seats | High Seats |
CON | 24.4% | 121 | 17.2% | 15 | 51 | 180 |
LAB | 34.7% | 412 | 21.3% | 56 | 153 | 296 |
LIB | 12.6% | 72 | 14.0% | 33 | 71 | 101 |
Reform | 14.7% | 5 | 30.4% | 154 | 301 | 413 |
Green | 6.9% | 4 | 9.6% | 3 | 6 | 28 |
SNP | 2.6% | 9 | 3.0% | 15 | 41 | 46 |
PlaidC | 0.7% | 4 | 0.7% | 2 | 5 | 9 |
Other | 3.5% | 5 | 3.9% | 0 | 4 | 8 |
SF | | 7 | | | 7 | |
DUP | | 5 | | | 5 | |
SDLP | | 2 | | | 2 | |
UUP | | 1 | | | 1 | |
Alliance | | 1 | | | 1 | |
TUV | | 1 | | | 1 | |
NI Other | | 1 | | | 1 | |
Prediction based on opinion polls from 28 Aug 2025 to 26 Sep 2025, sampling 12,571 people.
Commentary for end-September 2025
Posted 30 September 2025
Although party support remained fairly constant in September, our prediction has been updated
to reflect new information about tactical voting. This
shows that many voters will vote tactically both for left-right partisan reasons, and also to keep
Reform out. This costs Reform several dozen seats and deprives them of an overall parliamentary majority.
On our figures, a possible scenario would be a Reform-Conservative government, with Reform as the largest party.
Also, Richard Rose this month says that the Labour can change
for the less bad or for worse.
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