General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Reform short 13 of majority

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Low Seats	Pred Seats	High Seats
CON	24.4%	121	18.0%	16	69	214
LAB	34.7%	412	18.7%	31	100	243
LIB	12.6%	72	12.6%	28	67	90
Reform	14.7%	5	29.1%	157	313	415
Green	6.9%	4	13.2%	9	20	90
SNP	2.6%	9	2.8%	13	44	45
PlaidC	0.7%	4	0.8%	2	5	10
Other	3.5%	5	4.8%	4	14	14
SF		7			7
DUP		5			5
SDLP		2			2
UUP		1			1
Alliance		1			1
TUV		1			1
NI Other		1			1

Prediction based on opinion polls from 30 Oct 2025 to 28 Nov 2025, sampling 14,737 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Reform minority

41%

Reform majority

32%

No overall control

14%

Lab minority

Con minority

Conservative majority

Probability of being the largest party

Reform

84%

Labour

Conservative

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary for end-November 2025

Posted 1 December 2025

There were only small changes in the polls during November, but there is now a tie for fourth place between the Liberal Democrats and the Greens. Reform are still out in front, but down slightly, and less likely to form a government with an outright majority.