General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Reform short 18 of majority

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Low Seats	Pred Seats	High Seats
CON	24.4%	121	18.1%	20	73	217
LAB	34.7%	412	19.8%	18	75	257
LIB	12.6%	72	11.8%	30	66	89
Reform	14.7%	5	28.5%	145	308	411
Green	6.9%	4	14.1%	23	56	107
SNP	2.6%	9	2.9%	15	44	46
PlaidC	0.7%	4	1.0%	2	5	12
Other	3.5%	5	4.0%	0	5	6
SF		7			7
DUP		5			5
SDLP		2			2
UUP		1			1
Alliance		1			1
TUV		1			1
NI Other		1			1

Prediction based on opinion polls from 04 Feb 2026 to 23 Feb 2026, sampling 12,315 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Reform minority

41%

Reform majority

27%

Lab minority

17%

No overall control

Con minority

Green minority

Labour majority

Probability of being the largest party

Reform

80%

Labour

12%

Conservative

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary for end-February 2026

Posted 27 February 2026

Labour and the Greens made small gains in February, with the other parties declining slightly. Reform's lead over Labour has gone down to 8pc, compared with 10pc last month. Reform would be the largest party if there were an imminent general election, but short of an overall majority.