|Party||2019 Votes||2019 Seats||Pred Votes||Low Seats||Pred Seats||High Seats|
Prediction based on opinion polls from 28 May 2021 to 28 Jun 2021, sampling 14,792 people.
|No overall control|
The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.
In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.
Our June poll-of-polls is taken over eight separate pollsters, all of whom show a clear lead for the Conservatives over Labour. The average Conservative lead is 8pc, which is lower than last month.
This would still imply a comfortable Conservative majority in the House of Commons if there were a general election tomorrow. The Conservatives would win around 345 seats, with a majority of around 40 seats.
The recent Liberal Democrat win at the Chesham and Amersham by-election on 17 June does not seem to reflect any increased anti-Conservative feeling in the country. Most of the polling was conducted after that date, and the Conservative lead was still clearly visible. There has been a modest growth in support for the Lib Dems, who are a point or two more popular than they were last autumn, but they are still well below their support level at the last general election.