General Election Prediction
Updated 25 October 2024
Current Prediction: Labour majority 40
Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Low Seats | Pred Seats | High Seats |
CON | 24.4% | 121 | 25.1% | 73 | 170 | 285 |
LAB | 34.7% | 412 | 29.1% | 167 | 345 | 405 |
LIB | 12.6% | 72 | 13.2% | 44 | 72 | 91 |
Reform | 14.7% | 5 | 19.5% | 12 | 16 | 161 |
Green | 6.9% | 4 | 7.3% | 3 | 4 | 12 |
SNP | 2.6% | 9 | 2.7% | 6 | 10 | 38 |
PlaidC | 0.7% | 4 | 0.7% | 2 | 4 | 6 |
Other | 3.5% | 5 | 2.4% | 1 | 11 | 13 |
SF | | 7 | | | 7 | |
DUP | | 5 | | | 5 | |
SDLP | | 2 | | | 2 | |
NI Other | | 2 | | | 2 | |
UUP | | 1 | | | 1 | |
Alliance | | 1 | | | 1 | |
Prediction based on opinion polls from 02 Oct 2024 to 24 Oct 2024, sampling 10,879 people.
Commentary for November 2024
Posted 1 November 2024
According to the recent polls in October, Labour has lost around 6pc on its general election performance
with most of the gain going to Reform UK. On these figures, Labour would still have a majority in
the House of Commons, but it would be significantly smaller than their result in July.
Also, Richard Rose writes this month about the
good news and the bad news for Labour.
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