General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Reform short 81 of majority

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Low Seats	Pred Seats	High Seats
CON	24.4%	121	21.4%	36	94	259
LAB	34.7%	412	23.4%	80	177	322
LIB	12.6%	72	13.7%	26	60	92
Reform	14.7%	5	25.5%	84	245	361
Green	6.9%	4	9.6%	3	4	28
SNP	2.6%	9	2.9%	15	43	46
PlaidC	0.7%	4	0.8%	2	4	9
Other	3.5%	5	2.8%	0	5	8
SF		7			7
DUP		5			5
SDLP		2			2
UUP		1			1
Alliance		1			1
TUV		1			1
NI Other		1			1

Prediction based on opinion polls from 11 Apr 2025 to 25 Apr 2025, sampling 11,432 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Reform minority

33%

Lab minority

21%

Con minority

14%

No overall control

14%

Reform majority

11%

Labour majority

Conservative majority

Probability of being the largest party

Reform

49%

Labour

35%

Conservative

15%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary for end-March 2025

Posted 30 April 2025

Reform have bounced back a couple of points this month, with both Labour and the Conservatives dropping one point each. Reform are now two points ahead of Labour, who are another two points ahead of the Conservatives.

This would translate into Reform being the largest party with dozens of seats more than Labour. Nigel Farage would be set to be Prime Minister, possibly with Conservative support. The Conservatives could be reduced to fewer than a hundred seats.