General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Labour majority 82

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Low Seats	Pred Seats	High Seats
CON	24.4%	121	24.8%	69	157	272
LAB	34.7%	412	30.6%	196	366	425
LIB	12.6%	72	12.7%	43	72	89
Reform	14.7%	5	18.3%	9	9	131
Green	6.9%	4	7.7%	3	4	12
SNP	2.6%	9	2.7%	6	10	38
PlaidC	0.7%	4	0.7%	2	4	6
Other	3.5%	5	2.5%	1	10	13
SF		7			7
DUP		5			5
SDLP		2			2
NI Other		2			2
UUP		1			1
Alliance		1			1

Prediction based on opinion polls from 29 Aug 2024 to 26 Sep 2024, sampling 5,278 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Labour majority

50%

Lab minority

39%

No overall control

Con minority

Conservative majority

Probability of being the largest party

Labour

90%

Conservative

10%

Reform

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary for October 2024

Posted 1 October 2024

According to the recent polls in October, Labour has lost around 4pc on its general election performance with most of the gain going to Reform UK. On these figures, Labour would still have a majority in the House of Commons, but it would be significantly smaller than their result in July.