General Election Prediction

Updated 29 June 2021

Current Prediction: Conservative majority 42

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesLow SeatsPred SeatsHigh Seats
CON 44.7%365 42.1%264346425
LAB 33.0%203 33.6%150220299
LIB 11.8%11 8.1%3624
Reform 2.1%0 1.8%002
Green 2.8%1 5.9%111
SNP 4.0%48 4.2%355556
PlaidC 0.5%4 0.5%145
Other 1.1%0 3.8%001
DUP 8  8 
SF 7  7 
SDLP 2  2 
Alliance 1  1 

Prediction based on opinion polls from 28 May 2021 to 28 Jun 2021, sampling 14,792 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Conservative majority
65%
Lab minority
22%
No overall control
12%
Labour majority
1%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary on June 2021

Posted 1 July 2021

Our June poll-of-polls is taken over eight separate pollsters, all of whom show a clear lead for the Conservatives over Labour. The average Conservative lead is 8pc, which is lower than last month.

This would still imply a comfortable Conservative majority in the House of Commons if there were a general election tomorrow. The Conservatives would win around 345 seats, with a majority of around 40 seats.

The recent Liberal Democrat win at the Chesham and Amersham by-election on 17 June does not seem to reflect any increased anti-Conservative feeling in the country. Most of the polling was conducted after that date, and the Conservative lead was still clearly visible. There has been a modest growth in support for the Lib Dems, who are a point or two more popular than they were last autumn, but they are still well below their support level at the last general election.


Opinion Polls From Dec 2019
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