General Election Prediction

Updated 14 June 2024

Current Prediction: Labour majority 272

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesLow SeatsPred SeatsHigh Seats
CON 44.7%376 21.9%4280236
LAB 33.0%197 41.4%321461504
LIB 11.8%8 10.8%346377
Reform 2.1%0 14.8%017
Green 2.8%1 5.6%022
SNP 4.0%48 3.5%62038
PlaidC 0.5%2 0.7%135
Other 1.1%0 1.5%023
DUP 8  7 
SF 7  7 
SDLP 2  2 
UUP 0  1 
Alliance 1  1 

Prediction based on opinion polls from 05 Jun 2024 to 13 Jun 2024, sampling 19,426 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Labour majority
94%
Lab minority
5%

Probability of being the largest party

Labour
99%
Conservative
1%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary with three weeks to go

Posted 14 June 2024

Labour's lead over the Conservatives held steady at 20pc over the last week. Since Nigel Farage's reappearance, Reform are up 1pc to 15pc, but are still 7pc behind the Tories on average.

Also read Prof Richard Rose this week on why British voters don't need an EU election to cast a protest vote.


Opinion Polls From Dec 2019
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