General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Reform majority 74

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Low Seats	Pred Seats	High Seats
CON	24.4%	121	17.9%	10	22	159
LAB	34.7%	412	22.6%	59	136	281
LIB	12.6%	72	14.4%	26	62	95
Reform	14.7%	5	30.4%	169	362	449
Green	6.9%	4	9.1%	2	4	24
SNP	2.6%	9	2.9%	13	38	45
PlaidC	0.7%	4	0.8%	1	4	8
Other	3.5%	5	1.9%	0	4	7
SF		7			7
DUP		5			5
SDLP		2			2
UUP		1			1
Alliance		1			1
TUV		1			1
NI Other		1			1

Prediction based on opinion polls from 02 May 2025 to 22 May 2025, sampling 15,311 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Reform majority

46%

Reform minority

29%

Lab minority

13%

No overall control

Con minority

Labour majority

Probability of being the largest party

Reform

83%

Labour

15%

Conservative

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary for end-May 2025

Posted 30 May 2025

After their local council success on 1 May, Reform have seen a positive bounce in the polls. They are now on 30pc support, which is 7pc ahead of Labour and 12pc ahead of the Conservatives.

If there were a general election tomorrow (and there will not be), then Reform could expect to have an outright majority in the House of Commons and Nigel Farage would be Prime Minister. This is the first time that the polls have indicated that Reform could form a government on its own. The Conservatives would be the fifth largest party at Westminster behind the Liberal Democrats and the SNP.