General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Reform short 1 of majority

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Low Seats	Pred Seats	High Seats
CON	24.4%	121	18.2%	18	41	170
LAB	34.7%	412	22.9%	58	145	301
LIB	12.6%	72	13.7%	29	67	95
Reform	14.7%	5	29.4%	147	325	433
Green	6.9%	4	9.3%	3	5	28
SNP	2.6%	9	2.8%	11	40	44
PlaidC	0.7%	4	0.8%	2	4	8
Other	3.5%	5	2.8%	0	5	8
SF		7			7
DUP		5			5
SDLP		2			2
UUP		1			1
Alliance		1			1
TUV		1			1
NI Other		1			1

Prediction based on opinion polls from 30 May 2025 to 26 Jun 2025, sampling 12,521 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Reform minority

35%

Reform majority

35%

Lab minority

17%

No overall control

Con minority

Labour majority

Probability of being the largest party

Reform

77%

Labour

20%

Conservative

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary for end-June 2025

Posted 30 June 2025

Labour have reduced Reform's lead by 1pc over the last month, but Nigel Farage's party is still 7pc ahead of Labour. If there were a general election soon, Reform would be predicted to win it with a comfortable overall majority.