General Election 2024

Predicted GE Result by Ward

Our online store is now open: click here to buy and download your seat's data, or for a free sample.

Shop online

Electoral Calculus has a unique new data service designed for general election candidates, local parties and campaigners. Data are available on an individual seat level, and are powered by large-scale MRP polling, and supported by Electoral Calculus detailed database of previous election results. Data include voting intention, likelihood to switch, and popular local political issues and policies.

Data are available at several geographical levels, giving insights you can use for campaigning, message targeting, and 'get out the vote' efforts. These predictions use our modern regression methods (known as MRP) to give estimates for turnout, voting intention and political priorities in every ward and output area in your seat.

Voting intention predictions are based on the dynamic Electoral Calculus election predictions, and are updated at least once a month. These live predictions are a blend of our own custom MRP polling, plus recent information from other national opinion polls, to ensure an up-to-date and detailed prediction across all seats.

Other data is based on custom MRP polling that we conduct periodically with by pollster Find Out Now. In a large sample of over 18,000 respondents across the country in January and February, we asked respondents about voting intention and their top three political priorities, such as health, immigration, etc, as well as popular policies and likelihood to switch vote.

Data are shown firstly by for the whole seat overall, and then by the local council wards, in local district or borough, or unitary, councils. There are around 8,400 wards in the UK, with an average of 5,600 voters in each one. Wards are naturally sub-parts of the new parliamentary seats, so information gained at a ward level can be very helpful for the ultimate analysis of an entire seat, and also provides valuable campaign information.

The most detailed geographical level is the Census output area, which is the finest level of census reporting. These output areas are very small, consisting of around one to three streets or a few postcodes. There are over two hundred thousand of them in Britain, with an average of 200 voters in each one. Output areas can be a powerful way to target messaging by post, telephone or direct canvassing.

Two versions of the data are available now:

Standard dataset

This includes voting intention and likelihood to switch, past political data for each area in the seat, as well as recent census data. Specifically:

Price for Baseline data : £300 per seat.

Premium dataset

The premium dataset includes all the contents of the 'Standard' package, plus detailed insight about voters political attitudes to various policies and issues. These include:

Price for Full data : £500 per seat.

Online store

To download the full MRP data for any seat right now, or for a free sample, please visit our online store where you can get your data in a few clicks.

Shop online

For more details, please contact us at , or 020 3627 8141.