New Constituency Boundaries for Britain 2013

This page first posted 18 September 2011

In October 2012, the Boundary Commission for England published their revised recommendations for the new constituencies boundaries, following their initial proposals in September 2011. These new boundaries were originally intended to come into force for 2015, but this has been cancelled by the new Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013. These boundaries will not be used for any election, and are presented here for academic interest. A completely new review of boundaries will be initiated after the next general election and will be finalised by October 2018.

Our thanks go to the Boundary Commission for making the full ward details available to Electoral Calculus.

In September 2012, the Boundary Commission for Scotland published their revised recommendations for Scotland, after their initial proposals of October 2011. This reduces the number of Scottish seats from 59 to 52. The Boundary Commission for Wales published their initial recommendations in January 2012 and revised proposals in October 2012. The number of Welsh seats decreased from 40 to 30. The Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland published their initial recommendations in September 2011 and revised proposals in October 2012. They decreased the number of Northern Irish seats from 18 to 16.

We have calculated implied results for the 2010 election as if it had been run under the revised new boundaries. All of the UK results are now based on local authority election results, which is the most accurate way of calculating them. Details of the calculation method are available.


Party2010 Votes2010 Actual Seats2010 Notional SeatsChange
CON36.97%307300-7
LAB29.66%258222-36
LIB23.56%5754-3
NAT 2.26%98-1
MIN 7.54%1916-3
Total100.00%650600-50

The new boundaries would have changed the overall result of the 2010 General Election from "Conservatives short 19 seats of a majority" to "Conservatives short 1 seat of a majority".

The implied results for 2010 under the new boundaries can be seen in both web-style and flat-file formats:

Changes in numbers of seats

All regions have lost seats. The table shows both the changes to total seats and the changes to party totals (as at 6 May 2010). Click on the Region links to see a summary of all the new seats in the region, with changes highlighted. Click on the Ward Breakdown links to see, for each district ward, its old seat, its new seat, and its ward electorate.

RegionOld SeatsNew SeatsChangeCONLABLIBNATMINWard
Breakdown
East Scotland3228-40-2-200 
West Scotland2724-3-1-1-100 
Northern Ireland1816-20000-2 
North3531-40-4000 
Lancashire3127-4-1-2-100 
Greater Manchester2726-11-2000 
Yorkshire3028-21-3000 
Humberside3129-21-4100 
West Midlands2826-22-4000 
East Midlands3835-3-1-3100 
Severn3633-3-2-1000 
Wales4030-10-3-71-10 
East Anglia3636000000 
Essex3634-2-20000 
West30300-10100 
North London3634-20-2000 
South London3734-3-2-2100 
South West3129-200-200 
South3838010-100 
South East3332-101-10-1 
Total650600-50-7-36-3-1-3 

These boundary changes result in a gain of twelve seats to the coalition government's parliamentary majority. This includes all the new seats across all the UK (England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland).

Disappearing Seats

These fifty-nine old seats, although they do not vanish into space, are particularly fragmented after the boundary changes and do not form the largest part of any new seat. The current MPs for those seats may have to find an alternative neighbouring seat before the next election.

Old seatCurrent MPCounty/Area
AberconwyGuto BebbClwyd (Wales)
ArfonHywel WilliamsGwynedd (Wales)
Ayrshire CentralBrian DonohoeAyrshire and Lanark (West Scotland)
Bedfordshire MidNadine DorriesBedfordshire (East Anglia)
Birmingham Hodge HillLiam ByrneBirmingham (West Midlands)
Birmingham Selly OakStephen McCabeBirmingham (West Midlands)
BlaydonDavid AndersonNewcastle area (North)
Blyth ValleyRonnie CampbellNorthumberland (North)
Bradford SouthGerry SutcliffeWest Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthSimon HartDyfed (Wales)
Cornwall NorthDan RogersonCornwall (South West)
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch EastGregg McClymontGlasgow area (West Scotland)
Cynon ValleyAnn ClwydMid Glamorgan (Wales)
DelynDavid HansonClwyd (Wales)
Denton and ReddishAndrew GwynneEastern Manchester (Greater Manchester)
Derbyshire MidPauline LathamDerbyshire (East Midlands)
Dorset NorthRobert WalterDorset (South West)
Dudley SouthChris KellyBlack Country (West Midlands)
Dulwich and West NorwoodTessa JowellLambeth (South London)
Ealing SouthallVirendra SharmaEaling (South London)
Edinburgh EastSheila GilmoreEdinburgh area (East Scotland)
Faversham and Kent MidHugh RobertsonKent (South East)
Glasgow CentralAnas SarwarGlasgow area (West Scotland)
GordonMalcolm BruceGrampian (East Scotland)
GowerMartin CatonWest Glamorgan (Wales)
Great GrimsbyAustin MitchellHumber area (Humberside)
Greenwich and WoolwichNick RaynsfordGreenwich (South London)
Hackney South and ShoreditchMeg HillierHackney (North London)
Haltemprice and HowdenDavid DavisHumber area (Humberside)
Herefordshire NorthBill WigginHereford and Worcestershire (Severn)
HyndburnGraham JonesLancashire (Lancashire)
Ilford SouthMike GapesRedbridge (North London)
IslwynChristopher EvansGwent (Wales)
Kirkcaldy and CowdenbeathGordon BrownFife (East Scotland)
Leeds EastGeorge MudieWest Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
Liverpool WaltonSteve RotheramMerseyside (Lancashire)
Meon ValleyGeorge HollingberyHampshire (South)
MontgomeryshireGlyn DaviesPowys (Wales)
Newport WestPaul FlynnGwent (Wales)
Nottingham EastChristopher LeslieNottinghamshire (East Midlands)
OgmoreHuw Irranca-DaviesMid Glamorgan (Wales)
Paisley and Renfrewshire NorthJames SheridanGlasgow area (West Scotland)
PudseyStuart AndrewWest Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
Ross Skye and LochaberCharles KennedyHighland (East Scotland)
RushcliffeKenneth ClarkeNottinghamshire (East Midlands)
SedgefieldPhil WilsonDurham (North)
Sheffield Brightside and HillsboroughDavid BlunkettSouth Yorkshire (Humberside)
StirlingAnne McGuireCentral (East Scotland)
StoneWilliam CashStaffordshire (Severn)
WalthamstowStella CreasyWaltham Forest (North London)
Weaver ValeGraham EvansCheshire (Severn)
West Bromwich EastTom WatsonBlack Country (West Midlands)
Westminster NorthKaren BuckCity of Westminster (North London)
Wirral SouthAlison McGovernMerseyside (Lancashire)
WithamPriti PatelEssex (Essex)
Wolverhampton North EastEmma ReynoldsBlack Country (West Midlands)
WorkingtonTony CunninghamCumbria (North)
Wyre and Preston NorthBen WallaceLancashire (Lancashire)
Yorkshire EastGreg KnightHumber area (Humberside)

Seats changing hands

We calculate that the following twenty-eight seats would have had a different outcome at the last general election had the new boundaries been in force then. This is the answer to a hypothetical question, so cannot be proved conclusively, but this is our best estimate.

Old seatCurrent MPNew seatImplied
Majority
County/Area
Batley and SpenMike WoodSpen Valley536West Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
BatterseaJane EllisonBattersea and Vauxhall2,656Wandsworth (South London)
Bolton North EastDavid CrausbyBolton North and Darwen910Western Manchester (Greater Manchester)
Brighton PavilionCaroline LucasBrighton Pavilion1,493East Sussex (South East)
BurnleyGordon BirtwistleBurnley and Accrington East3,771Lancashire (Lancashire)
Cardiff NorthJonathan EvansCardiff North and Gwent South West1,713South Glamorgan (Wales)
ChesterfieldToby PerkinsChesterfield402Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Clwyd SouthSusan Elan JonesDenbigh and Montgomeryshire North1,305Clwyd (Wales)
Croydon CentralGavin BarwellCroydon East398Croydon (South London)
Derby NorthChris WilliamsonDerby West1,119Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Devon West and TorridgeGeoffrey CoxBideford, Bude and Launceston2,998Devon (South West)
Dorset Mid and Poole NorthAnnette BrookeDorset Mid4,804Dorset (South West)
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleDavid MundellDumfries3,030Dumfries and Galloway (West Scotland)
Dunbartonshire EastJo SwinsonDunbartonshire East and Kilsyth8,056Glasgow area (West Scotland)
Enfield NorthNick de BoisEnfield North60Enfield (North London)
Hull West and HessleAlan JohnsonKingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice939Humber area (Humberside)
Leeds North WestGreg MulhollandOtley8,726West Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
LewesNorman BakerLewes and Uckfield3,115East Sussex (South East)
Nottingham SouthLillian GreenwoodNottingham South and West Bridgford3,019Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Oxford West and AbingdonNicola BlackwoodOxford West and Abingdon250Oxfordshire (West)
Portsmouth SouthMike HancockPortsmouth East4,368Hampshire (South)
Richmond ParkZac GoldsmithRichmond and Twickenham1,358Richmond Upon Thames (South London)
Sheffield HeeleyMeg MunnSheffield Heeley2,036South Yorkshire (Humberside)
Stoke-on-Trent SouthRobert FlelloStaffordshire West6,880Staffordshire (Severn)
Swansea WestGeraint DaviesGower and Swansea West191West Glamorgan (Wales)
TootingSadiq KhanBalham and Tooting2,323Wandsworth (South London)
Walsall SouthValerie VazWalsall South3,137Black Country (West Midlands)
WellsTessa MuntBurnham and Glastonbury3,825Somerset (South West)

Newly created seats

Despite the overall reduction of seats, there are still some seats which are "new". This list of nine seats shows those new seats which are made up of a number of small parts of old seats.

New seatPartyImplied
Majority
County/Area
Birmingham EdgbastonLAB5,015Birmingham (West Midlands)
Dudley WestCON5,101Black Country (West Midlands)
Grimsby North and BartonCON4,729Humber area (Humberside)
Isle of Wight WestCON7,929Hampshire (South)
Leeds NorthLIB2,705West Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
Newham SouthLAB19,324Newham (North London)
Nottingham WestLAB8,805Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Renfrewshire South and Ayrshire NorthLAB13,512Glasgow area (West Scotland)
Wanstead and WoodfordCON5,078Redbridge (North London)

History of revisions.

The data presented has been revised at various times.