In September 2011, the Boundary Commission for England published their initial draft recommendations for the new constituencies boundaries. These boundaries will probably take effect at the next General Election around 2015. The final recommendations should be published in 2013, so all the seats details and results are subject to change. Our thanks go to the Boundary Commission for making the full ward details available to Electoral Calculus.
In October 2011, the Boundary Commission for Scotland published their draft recommendations for Scotland. This reduces the number of Scottish seats from 59 to 52. These proposals are also in draft form and they will probably change before they are finalised. The Boundary Commission for Wales published their draft recommendations in January 2012. The number of Welsh seats decreased from 40 to 30. The Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland published their draft recommendations in September 2011, and decreased the number of Northern Irish seats from 18 to 16.
We have calculated implied results for the 2010 election as if it had been run under the new boundaries. All of the GB results are now based on local authority election results, which is the most accurate way of calculating them. Details of the calculation method are available.
| Party | 2010 Votes | 2010 Actual Seats | 2010 Notional Seats | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 36.97% | 307 | 297 | -10 |
| LAB | 29.66% | 258 | 231 | -27 |
| LIB | 23.56% | 57 | 48 | -9 |
| NAT | 2.26% | 9 | 8 | -1 |
| MIN | 7.54% | 19 | 16 | -3 |
| Total | 100.00% | 650 | 600 | -50 |
The new boundaries would have changed the overall result of the 2010 General Election from "Conservatives short 19 seats of a majority" to "Conservatives short 4 seats of a majority".
The implied results for 2010 under the new boundaries can be seen in both web-style and flat-file formats:
| Region | Old Seats | New Seats | Change | CON | LAB | LIB | NAT | MIN | Ward Breakdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Scotland | 32 | 28 | -4 | 0 | -2 | -2 | 0 | 0 | |
| West Scotland | 27 | 24 | -3 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Northern Ireland | 18 | 16 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | |
| North | 35 | 31 | -4 | 1 | -4 | -1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lancashire | 31 | 27 | -4 | -2 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Greater Manchester | 27 | 26 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Yorkshire | 30 | 28 | -2 | -1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Humberside | 31 | 29 | -2 | 0 | -3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| West Midlands | 28 | 26 | -2 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| East Midlands | 38 | 35 | -3 | -1 | -3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Severn | 36 | 33 | -3 | -2 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wales | 40 | 30 | -10 | -3 | -5 | -1 | -1 | 0 | |
| East Anglia | 36 | 35 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Essex | 36 | 35 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| West | 30 | 29 | -1 | -2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| North London | 36 | 34 | -2 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| South London | 37 | 34 | -3 | 2 | -4 | -1 | 0 | 0 | |
| South West | 31 | 30 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| South | 38 | 38 | 0 | 2 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | |
| South East | 33 | 32 | -1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | |
| Total | 650 | 600 | -50 | -10 | -27 | -9 | -1 | -3 |
These boundary changes result in a gain of twelve seats to the coalition government's parliamentary majority. This includes all the new seats across all the UK (England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland).
| Old seat | Current MP | County/Area |
|---|---|---|
| Aberconwy | Guto Bebb | Clwyd (Wales) |
| Arfon | Hywel Williams | Gwynedd (Wales) |
| Ayrshire Central | Brian Donohoe | Ayrshire and Lanark (West Scotland) |
| Batley and Spen | Mike Wood | West Yorkshire (Yorkshire) |
| Bedfordshire Mid | Nadine Dorries | Bedfordshire (East Anglia) |
| Beverley and Holderness | Graham Stuart | Humberside (Humberside) |
| Bexleyheath and Crayford | David Evennett | Bexley (South London) |
| Birmingham Hodge Hill | Liam Byrne | Birmingham (West Midlands) |
| Birmingham Selly Oak | Stephen McCabe | Birmingham (West Midlands) |
| Blaydon | David Anderson | Newcastle area (North) |
| Blyth Valley | Ronnie Campbell | Northumberland (North) |
| Brigg and Goole | Andrew Percy | Humberside (Humberside) |
| Caerphilly | Wayne David | Gwent (Wales) |
| Cardiff Central | Jenny Willott | South Glamorgan (Wales) |
| Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South | Simon Hart | Dyfed (Wales) |
| Cornwall North | Dan Rogerson | Cornwall (South West) |
| Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East | Gregg McClymont | Glasgow area (West Scotland) |
| Cynon Valley | Ann Clwyd | Mid Glamorgan (Wales) |
| Delyn | David Hanson | Clwyd (Wales) |
| Derbyshire Mid | Pauline Latham | Derbyshire (East Midlands) |
| Devon South West | Gary Streeter | Devon (South West) |
| Dorset North | Robert Walter | Dorset (South West) |
| Dudley South | Chris Kelly | West Midlands (West Midlands) |
| Dulwich and West Norwood | Tessa Jowell | Lambeth (South London) |
| Ealing Southall | Virendra Sharma | Ealing (South London) |
| Edinburgh East | Sheila Gilmore | Edinburgh area (East Scotland) |
| Edmonton | Andy Love | Enfield (North London) |
| Fareham | Mark Hoban | Hampshire (South) |
| Faversham and Kent Mid | Hugh Robertson | Kent (South East) |
| Glasgow Central | Anas Sarwar | Glasgow area (West Scotland) |
| Gordon | Malcolm Bruce | Grampian (East Scotland) |
| Gower | Martin Caton | West Glamorgan (Wales) |
| Halesowen and Rowley Regis | James Morris | West Midlands (West Midlands) |
| Herefordshire North | Bill Wiggin | Hereford and Worcestershire (Severn) |
| Hyndburn | Graham Jones | Lancashire (Lancashire) |
| Ilford South | Mike Gapes | Redbridge (North London) |
| Kenilworth and Southam | Jeremy Wright | Warwickshire (East Midlands) |
| Kensington | Sir Malcolm Rifkind | Kensington and Chelsea (North London) |
| Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath | Gordon Brown | Fife (East Scotland) |
| Knowsley | George Howarth | Merseyside (Lancashire) |
| Leeds Central | Hilary Benn | West Yorkshire (Yorkshire) |
| Leeds West | Rachel Reeves | West Yorkshire (Yorkshire) |
| Leigh | Andrew Burnham | Western Manchester (Greater Manchester) |
| Leyton and Wanstead | John Cryer | Waltham Forest (North London) |
| Liverpool Wavertree | Luciana Berger | Merseyside (Lancashire) |
| Montgomeryshire | Glyn Davies | Powys (Wales) |
| Newport East | Jessica Morden | Gwent (Wales) |
| Norfolk South West | Elizabeth Truss | Norfolk (East Anglia) |
| Nottingham East | Christopher Leslie | Nottinghamshire (East Midlands) |
| Ogmore | Huw Irranca-Davies | Mid Glamorgan (Wales) |
| Oldham West and Royton | Michael Meacher | Eastern Manchester (Greater Manchester) |
| Paisley and Renfrewshire North | James Sheridan | Glasgow area (West Scotland) |
| Romsey and Southampton North | Caroline Nokes | Hampshire (South) |
| Ross Skye and Lochaber | Charles Kennedy | Highland (East Scotland) |
| Rushcliffe | Kenneth Clarke | Nottinghamshire (East Midlands) |
| Sedgefield | Phil Wilson | Durham (North) |
| Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough | David Blunkett | South Yorkshire (Humberside) |
| Shipley | Philip Davies | West Yorkshire (Yorkshire) |
| Stone | William Cash | Staffordshire (Severn) |
| Streatham | Chuka Umunna | Lambeth (South London) |
| Truro and Falmouth | Sarah Newton | Cornwall (South West) |
| Tyneside North | Mary Glindon | Newcastle area (North) |
| Weaver Vale | Graham Evans | Cheshire (Severn) |
| West Bromwich East | Tom Watson | West Midlands (West Midlands) |
| Westmorland and Lonsdale | Tim Farron | Cumbria (North) |
| Wirral South | Alison McGovern | Merseyside (Lancashire) |
| Witham | Priti Patel | Essex (Essex) |
| Wolverhampton South East | Pat McFadden | West Midlands (West Midlands) |
| Wyre and Preston North | Ben Wallace | Lancashire (Lancashire) |
| Old seat | Current MP | New seat | Implied Majority | County/Area |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Battersea | Jane Ellison | Battersea and Vauxhall | 4,847 | Wandsworth (South London) |
| Birmingham Erdington | Jack Dromey | Birmingham Erdington | 3,297 | Birmingham (West Midlands) |
| Bradford East | David Ward | Bradford Central and East | 7,035 | West Yorkshire (Yorkshire) |
| Bradford West | Marsha Singh | Bradford West | 3,268 | West Yorkshire (Yorkshire) |
| Brighton Pavilion | Caroline Lucas | Brighton Pavilion and Hove | 8,009 | East Sussex (South East) |
| Burnley | Gordon Birtwistle | Burnley South and Accrington | 5,106 | Lancashire (Lancashire) |
| Cardiff North | Jonathan Evans | Caerphilly and Cardiff North | 3,976 | South Glamorgan (Wales) |
| Carshalton and Wallington | Tom Brake | Croydon Central and St Helier | 408 | Sutton (South London) |
| Chesterfield | Toby Perkins | Chesterfield | 402 | Derbyshire (East Midlands) |
| Clwyd South | Susan Elan Jones | Glyndwr and Powys North | 1,177 | Clwyd (Wales) |
| Copeland | Jamie Reed | Copeland and Windermere | 1,115 | Cumbria (North) |
| Derby North | Chris Williamson | Derby West | 1,119 | Derbyshire (East Midlands) |
| Devon West and Torridge | Geoffrey Cox | Bideford and Bude | 3,781 | Devon (South West) |
| Dorset Mid and Poole North | Annette Brooke | Blandford and Wimborne | 4,507 | Dorset (South West) |
| Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale | David Mundell | Dumfries | 3,030 | Dumfries and Galloway (West Scotland) |
| Dunbartonshire East | Jo Swinson | Dunbartonshire East and Kilsyth | 8,056 | Glasgow area (West Scotland) |
| Elmet and Rothwell | Alec Shelbrooke | Leeds South East | 7,280 | West Yorkshire (Yorkshire) |
| Eltham | Clive Efford | Eltham | 2,060 | Greenwich (South London) |
| Enfield North | Nick de Bois | Enfield North | 60 | Enfield (North London) |
| Erith and Thamesmead | Teresa Pearce | Erith | 4,702 | Bexley (South London) |
| Leeds North East | Fabian Hamilton | Leeds North West and Nidderdale | 9,215 | West Yorkshire (Yorkshire) |
| Leeds North West | Greg Mulholland | Leeds North | 872 | West Yorkshire (Yorkshire) |
| Lewes | Norman Baker | Uckfield | 4,497 | East Sussex (South East) |
| Manchester Withington | John Leech | Manchester Withington | 608 | Central Manchester (Greater Manchester) |
| Newcastle-under-Lyme | Paul Farrelly | Newcastle-under-Lyme and Stone | 7,981 | Staffordshire (Severn) |
| Nottingham South | Lillian Greenwood | Nottingham South and West Bridgford | 3,019 | Nottinghamshire (East Midlands) |
| Oxford West and Abingdon | Nicola Blackwood | Abingdon and Oxford North | 250 | Oxfordshire (West) |
| Pendle | Andrew Stephenson | Burnley North and Nelson | 2,152 | Lancashire (Lancashire) |
| Penrith and The Border | Rory Stewart | Kendal and Penrith | 6,452 | Cumbria (North) |
| Portsmouth South | Mike Hancock | Portsmouth East | 3,217 | Hampshire (South) |
| Redcar | Ian Swales | Redcar | 1,026 | Cleveland (North) |
| Richmond Park | Zac Goldsmith | Richmond and Twickenham | 1,358 | Richmond upon Thames (South London) |
| Scunthorpe | Nic Dakin | Scunthorpe | 894 | Humberside (Humberside) |
| Selby and Ainsty | Nigel Adams | Selby and Castleford | 3,567 | North Yorkshire (Yorkshire) |
| Sheffield Heeley | Meg Munn | Sheffield South West | 2,036 | South Yorkshire (Humberside) |
| Somerset North East | Jacob Rees-Mogg | Somerset North East | 2,536 | Bristol area (West) |
| Southampton Test | Alan Whitehead | Southampton Test | 3,702 | Hampshire (South) |
| Sutton and Cheam | Paul Burstow | Sutton and Cheam | 635 | Sutton (South London) |
| Telford | David Wright | Bridgnorth and Telford South | 7,990 | Shropshire (Severn) |
| Walsall South | Valerie Vaz | Walsall South | 3,137 | West Midlands (West Midlands) |
| Warrington South | David Mowat | Warrington South | 3,078 | Cheshire (Severn) |
| Wells | Tessa Munt | Wells | 5,448 | Somerset (South West) |
| Wolverhampton South West | Paul Uppal | Wolverhampton South | 2,918 | West Midlands (West Midlands) |
| Workington | Tony Cunningham | Workington and Keswick | 596 | Cumbria (North) |
| New seat | Party | Implied Majority | County/Area |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beverley | CON | 12,397 | Humberside (Humberside) |
| Birmingham Edgbaston | LAB | 5,015 | Birmingham (West Midlands) |
| Bodmin and Newquay | LIB | 207 | Cornwall (South West) |
| Cardiff East | LAB | 989 | South Glamorgan (Wales) |
| Clapham Common | CON | 4,889 | Wandsworth (South London) |
| Dudley South and Rowley Regis | LAB | 149 | West Midlands (West Midlands) |
| Dudley West | CON | 5,101 | West Midlands (West Midlands) |
| Hedge End and Hamble | CON | 7,318 | Hampshire (South) |
| Isle of Wight South | CON | 5,479 | Hampshire (South) |
| Kenilworth and Dorridge | CON | 11,585 | West Midlands (West Midlands) |
| Leeds South West and Morley | LAB | 5,969 | West Yorkshire (Yorkshire) |
| Leeds West and Pudsey | LAB | 5,646 | West Yorkshire (Yorkshire) |
| Liverpool Wavertree | LAB | 4,457 | Merseyside (Lancashire) |
| Newcastle upon Tyne South | LAB | 7,800 | Newcastle area (North) |
| Nottingham West | LAB | 8,805 | Nottinghamshire (East Midlands) |
| Renfrewshire South and Largs | LAB | 13,512 | Glasgow area (West Scotland) |
| Rochdale South | LAB | 355 | Eastern Manchester (Greater Manchester) |
| St Neots | CON | 9,938 | Cambridgeshire (East Anglia) |
| Stratford | LAB | 18,050 | Newham (North London) |
| Tavistock and Plympton | CON | 11,590 | Devon (South West) |
| Wanstead and Woodford | CON | 5,078 | Redbridge (North London) |